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Exercising the options is most likely to do with getting them into tax wrapper such as san ISA. The will have a tax bill on gains if they wait to exercise at a higher price, versus zero tax if getting into an isa. It happens quite often before a large re rate.
Wolves, clearly there are frustrations across all the covid stocks. However i am happy in the knowledge that in 4 months time they will be making 10m tests per month. Likelihood is that will be a mix of the 2 most sought after tests on the planet. The manufacturing capacity is the hedge that can be offered to other tests if things don't go to plan. There is no hedge here. It's all in on one outcome with a much much lower chance of success that the company have communicated and with no previous record of achieving such an outcome. I hope AVCT pull something out the bag for shareholders i do but i cannot see it. Lessons to be learnt. There is only one person responsible for the huge disconnect between risk and value and i hope his new house is worth it.
Wolves - if it's 1 it will be more than Avacta ever sell IMHO.
I have very little to worry about.
Unfortunately that's the likely outcome here. Not sure it will drop too far to that level.
At no point have the company communicated a fair chance of success. Everything has been sold as if it's 100% nailed on, when in all honest AVCT probably had less than a 25% chance of being successful with their test. They are up against all the best scientists in the world with proven methods and proven track records. They were reliant on very low sensitivity being acceptable IMO and their focus on saliva was short sighted. Innova have set the floor at circa 76%, and i suspect the next few will raise the bar higher. It was crazy to think that an unproven company could outperform industry experts.
It doesn't appear Affimers are wanted or needed in Diagnostics and are unable to offer any advantages over other reagents. Hopefully the therapeutics arm has more success, but not sure how the CEO can ever be trusted.
People are looking at £92m valuation and thinking that is what it is worth. Wrong. We know equity raise is usually at a discount. The true value will be relapsed after listing. It will be a good stock to hold particularly at 96p, but i really cannot see anyone getting let in a 96p on listing. If it was 75% free float might be a different story.
I guess we are all now wondering if the MHRA approval lands on the same days as listing. I suspect any buyers will get a better deal from ODX with the sp continuing to underperform in the short term.
Keen to see where abingdon use up the rest of their capacity, as looking more like AVCT is a non starter, who are the other 2 Antigen tests? Could one be surescreen? Mologic? Interested to see their deals and how profitable their antigen testing will be compared to ODX having an MTA and being legal manufacturer marketing under the Visitect brand. I very much doubt Abingdon have been able to secure anything other than a manufacturing contract.
I kind of hope Mologic news comes after MHRA approval ok UK RTC test. Thats the best value added imo. Ride the UK RTC update with Abingdon moving quickly on low free float, and then news of our much bigger opportunity.
68% not in public hands which is more like 76% with the smaller existing shareholders. 24% of the company floated. I think Abingdon will move very fast on news and it will take ODX with it. I don't expect any trading under £1 on listing and could do 100% in a day.
I'll be glad to get this out the way and now the valuation is finalised. Its taking a hit clearly from the £100m expected. I wonder how much ODX was used as a yardstick?
People are still missing the fact that UK RTC is expected to be just 10% of LFT production. Mologic tests are worth so much more. Our deal with Mologic is likely worth a lot more than Abingdon's double share of UK RTC and any other contracting manufacturing agreements they have.
Okehurst- surescreen have been at Porton Down, if you look in the picture bottom right of this tweet you can see the boxes on the extreme left.
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1332287384965136384?s=20
They are committed to more than 1m, they just haven't declared it yet. They are committed to at least 10m and Abingdon have already procured the components with UK Gov funding.
Chapsville - uk currently do not have the stock of home tests to move forward with LFT plans. Just like PPE, you have to secure overseas supply to bridge the gap until uk can catch up.
It is very frustrating i am convinced we have 100s or millions worth of progress with Abc-19 and Antigen test which we are simply not being told about because of Gov holding it up.
Just a reminder of what Omega said regarding the Abc-19 test only 9 days ago.
"The AbC-19™ Rapid test was specifically developed as a companion diagnostic test, alongside the Oxford University and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine programme."
Shows why the vaccine moving forward also moves the antibody test opportunity forward.
"The UK-RTC has achieved a significant amount of work in a short timescale, in terms of developing and then CE marking the test in a matter of months. The manufacturing processes have since been successfully transferred from Abingdon to Omega. The AbC-19™ Rapid test was specifically developed as a companion diagnostic test, alongside the Oxford University and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine programme. The Oxford vaccine triggers the body to produce trimeric spike protein neutralising antibodies and the AbC-19™ Rapid test is specifically designed to detect those antibodies. The Company therefore welcomes the recent news confirming efficacy of the Oxford vaccine and believes this will support increased demand.
The UK-RTC believes that the AbC-19™ Rapid test can be deployed at scale across populations to aid policymakers, healthcare systems, the scientific community and the public at large by:
· Clearly showing the extent of COVID-19 infection and its spread through communities (i.e. surveillance)
· Enabling researchers to understand whether people are developing immunity
· Playing a vital role in assessing initial immune response to new vaccines and in determining where follow-up or booster campaigns may be needed
The Company has now commenced shipments of AbC-19™ Rapid tests to Abingdon so that it may meet the requirement to supply the Department of Health and Social Care ("DHSC") with its first purchase order of 1 million tests. Currently, the Company now expects to be able to supply Abingdon with closer to 25% of this initial DHSC requirement and not less than 25% over the longer term."
And there’s what people struggle to understand the distribution strength of Omega.
I see these lateral flow tests like a commodity. In the same way with oil you value it on bopd, you don’t ask where that oil is going or who buys it. It’s supply going into a demand network where slightly different to oil demand will greatly exceed supply.
Production is the limiting factor not sales
*conservative
2m tests per week is for Antigen, ABC-19 and cd4. £2 per test average is conversation. The food tests are on top of that made in Cambridge, plus any Elisa sales they manage plus the lab testing service they are launching.
If all goes to plan, which I believe in current circumstances is a easily achievable plan, I can see a minimum of £240m profit per year. £240m at a prudent 5x multiplier divide by 180m shares.
Personally I see growth beyond 2m lateral flow tests per week. I also see a huge cash balance that they can either invest, pay dividends or share buy backs. That’s why I also think a 5x multiplier is prudent.
I bet their were similar forecasts for NCYT saying it couldn’t get to £6. The simple fact is 2m tests per week from April onwards will be made. The likelihood is they will achieve minimum 3-5 years traction on those sales based on previous infectious diseases. I don’t often talk about share price but this is the maths based on the business plan Omega have delivered.
Risk factors:
COVID goes away overnight - check the history of infectious diseases. They take decades to eradicate if it can ever be achieved at all.
No sales take up.... desperate need for lateral flow tests. The more made the more they can be rolled out in different social environments. Any quality test made will be bought
Antigen test fails - Mologic are world class I back them over other developers any day. Make more antibody tests
Antibody test not taken up - make more antigen tests.
Both products fail- market capacity to the most in demand tests.
Colin has put a plan together at a level that is achievable with the cash raise at low risk to cash flow, and high probability of 100% utilisation. I get the impression they did not want to build capacity they cannot guarantee 100% utilisation for the next few years.
This will be very rewarding to watch this play out over the next 6-12 months. Party has not even started yet. The lateral flow market has hardly been launched. Omega are very well placed to take advantage.
I have a short term target of £6.67 based on 2m tests per week.
104m tests per year average £2 profit.
There is no upper limit on any company’s share price.
£2 would be a p/e ration of less than 2 based on 2m tests a week. The industry average is 9.
So yes £2 would be pizz poor performance probably selling only an 8th of what they will be capable of
I still really don’t understand how so many people are failing to see the potential here. It’s like doing a jigsaw puzzle where all the pieces are the same shape and design.
2m tests per week from April 21
The best antibody test in the world designed with the same reagents used in the vaccine which is expected to be the widest used vaccine around
The holy grail antigen test about to be made available any day and TT began
The only triple antibody lateral flow test in the world
The only lateral flow CD4 test in the world
Food tolerance test approved for self test in China at $15 70% margin going into millions of tests
One of the largest planned manufacturing facilities in Europe
No debt
Fully cashed up for expansion
Ceo just bought shares
Monthly profit from April onwards will be pushing 1/4 of today’s mcap. A forward p/e ration of 0.38 when it should be trading at more like 5. This is still proved on around 1/200k tests per week which means upside is still very much to come.
PortFolioAce-we all know there is never a large rearrange without someone coming out and declaring loss of patience immediately before it, so hopefully you have taken one for the team!
Not a chance there is lack of take up for Abingdon ipo. You can’t even subscribe if you want to.
If you look at the 3 manufacturers recruitment it tells a lot......
BBI solutions - recruitment for reagents and other raw materials in Sittingbourne. Small recruitment for production technicians in Newport with specific reference to UK RTC antibody test
Abingdon - had a handful of previous production roles specifically mentioned for UK RTC antibody test, some app developers, and now US sales teams where they are registering ABC-19.
Omega appear to be much more aggressive recruiting, and advertise their jobs regarding a "Line of Lateral Flow tests" not specific to ABC-19. Something to do with the fact that 90% of their expected near term sales are from Mologic products. It's a good indicator that the Antigen test Omega is bringing on board is imminent, and the other two companies do not have an imminent other test.
Omega is by far the best positioned company because of the deal Colin has done with Mologic.