Member Info for Merchantbanker

What the government decide to do with tests is out of the manufacturers control. But they are developed with the intention of mass use at home. Which is what was promised with moonshot.,

Regulator - I don't think you can say a lateral flow test that is nasal rather than nasopharyngeal is not intended for home use. At the moment it is only CE marked for professional use and the government have procured it as such. It's clear it is intended for home use, but we are still waiting for the regulators to catch up.

Symbo - I very much doubt it is for LMICs. I am sure they will be procured directly with perhaps WHO authorisation. I am more of the opinion that small orders are to get the ball rolling and avoid any further issues with contracts awarded without public tender. With this closed last week, there is room for a new contract with a much larger order that has been offered for tender.

Mologic are due to deliver the first batch of tests by Sunday 24th and another batch by 30th. It's only matter of days before this test starts getting out there. You would expect Porton Down assessment to have completed by then if not already.https://atamis-1928.cloudforce.com/sfc/p/#0O000000rwim/a/4J000000kFIW/5SfwT4L0kIQoJLlN.96MHkiPvpmOkS06me3hXVg9Vis

The Avacta website update is hardly inspiring. It's a webpage that a GCSE student could have put together in a lessons work. It's just a reminder of all the ramped up dreams AS has sold, until such a time anything comes to fruition, which may be today, tomorrow or never.

The ABC test will sell in the many millions i have no doubt about that. UK Gov there is clear indications more will be ordered soon. The USA FDA non issue is just that. I suspect the problem will be being able to supply enough demand seeing as the manufacturers may well be tied up with Antigen tests, and the Antibody tests made will be needed here.

Everything in ODX world is looking highly promising, they are not reliant on a single product, and the products they do have have already achieved CE mark and completion of development.

"I wonder what they're getting ready to make?"

No need to wonder, just read the info. They are going to make Mologic antigen tests and UK RTC Antibody tests.

Benton - thanks exactly as the sensible ones thought.

So much is coming to fruition now for odx. There are breadcrumbs all over the place that the Mologic antigen test will play a huge part in the UK LFT armoury and omega will be one of the UKs critical manufacturers. With the abc test they have two very critical test which will be in high demand.

This Mologic test will be high quality made by industry experts with a real goal of providing quality affordable tests, not just rushing a test for a quick buck. There is evidence of machinery, equipment manufacturing reimbursements, innovate UK reimbursements. Omega are part of something huge here. There will be a number of manufacturers making this test and it may well take over as the primary antigen test in this country. It’s coming tenders closed, the validation was supported by the gov division that advise on travel policy, TT and ce mark any day now for omega.

Don’t fall for this nonsense regarding an fda link. This is a list to do with pre EUA approval for clinicians lab testing. They have made the EUA submission for POC testing, that is the important one and the key target market.

Regardless, there is a huge market in the UK that will consume months of Omegas production capacity before they even can think about supplying overseas.

I’m very interested in this lab testing service too as that is additional income and using the little port facility on top of lft.

Regulator - Lol! I suspect robbing a bank might be easier to gain access to funds atm!!!

UK Antibody testing program - ODX right in the thick of it with the ABC-19. Huge global opportunity. Next contractual order likely to be seen very soon. Further tenders closing end of the month

Antigen testing - Mologic test right up at the top of quality tests. I have no doubt that the professionalism of Mologic will help Omega provide the UK and overseas with the best possible tests.

Capacity - Omega part of the government's diagnostics capacity, with evidence of the gov ordering kit on behalf of that industry. Clearly ODX are part of a coordinated national effort that goes beyond the UK RTC. This will be a long term growth play for the industry that far outlasts Covid.

Capacity plan that we have seen rises to 2m by April. I really think they have to be thinking beyond that. I would like to see 5m minimum by June. I know CK wants capacity that can be used beyond covid, but the pay back on kit is so short it is worth a short term play.

The significance of Omega's role in the Lateral Flow supply of not only the UK but further afield is being grossly underestimated. Make them and they will sell. Huge cash flow incoming.

I am very interested in the lab testing service as that provides an additional high margin revenue stream above and beyond lateral flow using spare capacity in Littleport.

CD4 testing may actually be in greater demand with more concern and closer monitoring of HIV patients with the added covid risk. Already predicted to be a growth already from 2021 and beyond. There is no other LFT self test on the market.

And we just had the huge development of the highly lucrative food tests getting self test approval in China. We should start to see that growth in 2021.

The sum of all these parts will just grow and grow in 2021. It is a very exciting business as an investor at these levels. There is opportunity to return profits far in excess of the current market cap by the end of 2021. I just still cannot believe what a gift this is due to so many people failing to see what is unfolding right in front of their eyes, and having zero idea what this will be worth and reacting purely to share price movement. The only thing making me nervous is I would just really like to get one more bite of the cherry at this price next week with Jan payday, cannot get enough of a good thing.

Funny Trueway, because on 15th November, before the major significant piece of news of the Antigen test CE mark by Mologic you said:

"The strides ODX have taken and achieved on many levels and the future outlook doesn't sit in line with 56p."

"Sounds good news.Personally I think this share should have never hit so low.Even now at 56p its ludricous. To be honest this week with all the positive news for ODX it should be worth now £10 a share.If you look at the tier groups its on tier 1 one drop from Novacyt which is £897.00 a share ,now this is ridiculous."

This is so undervalued because of

a) The sell off of 35% of the company for no reason to do with future potential, just they made their money many times over. This share price should never be this low, no chance. But this sell off has lead to share price driven destruction of sentiment.

b) the inability of several inexperienced PIs to understand what is a good investment.

It really is just a case of sitting back for the next few weeks months. Although we don't know exact dates of which screw has been put in which hole and which machine has been plugged in and set up, it is very clear the timeframes Omega are working to and they fit exactly with the timeframes of expected demand. I do expect antibody testing is maybe a month or two ahead due to the vaccine being available slightly earlier than may have been expected.

The most challenging part is the development of the tests, and we now have two firmly in the portfolio and one under TT. The development was the risk and it's all in the bag. This is a $bn portfolio. Now the difficult part is done it's down to Omega to come into their own. The value is in the manufacturing capacity. They are experts in manufacturing and distribution. Taking developed products to market is just what they do. UK Gov contract will be huge for Omega with guaranteed material sales and UK orders validate products which make them more appealing elsewhere. They will find buyers, any not consumed in the UK will be exported through existing channels.

This is just win win. So derisked with the size of the upside potential. They only have to achieve 10% of what is expected to justify current value. This covid play will last longer than most people expect. And beyond that the UK diagnostics industry has had a call to arms not just for a pandemic, but for the future health service of the country. This is not just a day in the sun, this is a transformation of an under appreciated industry. It's just a very good place to be as an investor.

People need to stop sulking. They are 3 months away from 2m tests a week which is worth £20m a month. Look at the MCAP. Even if they sell naff all between now and then this is just off the chart significant. If you are not impressed with this you need to reconsider what makes an investment attractive to you. If its the companies that shout loudest for overhyped valuations then good luck chasing rainbows. In Omega you have an honest company building a business, against honest expectations, high growth potential and huge actual returns. This will be a cash cow. Good luck finding alternate investments that are as derisked as this with the chance of success so high in material returns. It is so obvious where this is heading. You would wish for an opportunity like this every 12-18 months.

Satallite - there will for sure be a big story regarding what they do with profits. I am thinking more short term that there may be some surprises in their Covid testing strategy. I think Mologic Antigen test has a big story. The capacity graph stops in April, so what does it look like after that? The government seem to be moving forward with support of the diagnostics industry. So how does that impact Omega? ABC-19 also may have more to unfold. There are also other tests being developed which might be the next phase of tests for 12 months time, are Omega looking at securing MTAs?

Chinaplate - I don't know if i have ever predicted the share price to be £5 by april. I would have said based on a reasonable and prudent valuation that at 2m tests which are expected by april the valuation should be in excess of £5. Do i expect the share price to get there by april? If the lack of transparency continues and as we stand here today, probably not. I suspect it would need to achieve 3-6 months sales at that level to confirm the valuation. I certainly expect it to be multiples of today's price.

If by April they confirm 2m tests per week are being made and sold and they have contracts in place for 6 months and expect at least 2 years of sales, who knows how high it can be and certainly expect then it could achieve this kind of level earlier. I still expect there to be a few surprises along the way that could add value, and perhaps once certain things are out in the open we will get a lot more transparency. NCYT should give a good yardstick.

What you mean like being part of a vaccine roll out plan.... like the one that was published by the Gov yesterday???

Once a vaccination programme is implemented and the earliest eligible groups have been offered a full course of vaccination....

....acute and convalescent serum and oral fluid samples will be taken, these will be used to:

provide evidence of immune response following vaccination and identify primary and secondary vaccine failures

monitoring age-specific vaccine effectiveness in

...mounted an immune response (this is anticipated to be 7 days after the second dose). Effectiveness of a single dose will also be monitored from 14 days after the first dose

All of section 8

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/951189/COVID-19_vaccine_surveillance_strategy.pdf

Even if official studies are concentrated on a sample much lower than the entire population, if they find vaccine effectiveness is even 90%, do you think people are happy to take their chances they are not one of the 10% failure? Individuals will want the test for piece of mind.

This was 75p before vaccine announcements..... taking into account vaccines open up a huge market and are good for Omega's ability to sell antibody tests, that's a crazy statement. Especially as this was pre new strain and pre winter lockdown.

And since then the single biggest risk event has been passed with Mologic CE marking the antigen test. Billion $ product all set for Omega to brand as their own.

I'm just waiting for people to turn up still insisting we are waiting on Avacta's test!!!! Probably a typo in the tweet!!!

It is irrelevant regarding the 15th date. The reason you see so many exercise of options RNS before rerates is because they can save tax by exercising them and putting them into an ISA. They will incur income tax on exercising share options. So the smaller the gain the lower the tax. They will also be liable to CTG on disposal if there is a further increase, therefore exercising them now and getting them into an ISA can save a lot of tax. The tax point is the exercise date, so 15th is irrelevant, if the stock went up 100% tomorrow, the key date is when the options were exercised.
If its someone in a high rate band they could pay 40/45% income tax and then have to pay CGT on disposal.

If the option price is 10p at current price making around 12k, they would have £4.8k income tax bill. At £1.50 that would be £18.9k income tax. By exercising early they are saving a lot of income tax, if they can get it into an isa they save all CGT. If not, CGT is lower than income tax. So in this same example the CGT would be £5.7k, total tax £10.6k rather than £18.9k if you exercised when the price is £1.50p. £8.3k saving. Also there is the CGT allowance.

There is a misconception that people think exercise of share options is a bad sign, but it is the opposite. If you are that employee, you absolutely want to exercise the option as soon as possible if you expect a material increase in the share price. So do not see this as an employee has sold, see it as an employee anticipates a rerate and is taking action to save tax.

Regulator - I believe that when Mologic set out to design a test they had LMIC in mind and that is where their main interest lies. They have set up Global Access Diagnostics for that purpose to separate that non profitable entity. What i think has changed is they probably expecting there would be several comparable tests out there taking care of the UK and other markets. I suspect that with Mologic's expertise they have produced a test that was intended to be low cost for LMIC that is comparable or better than the best competing tests out there. Through commercial agreements with the likes of ODX and further increasing capacity, this test can be expanded beyond the markets it was intended for. We know from the begging ODX said the Visitect tests would be export tests, but we have seen antibody tests on sale in the UK distribution channels, and now Colin King talks about moonshot. It might also be they never expected lateral flow to play such a big part in established countries where access to testing in theory is more widespread. They would have expected lateral flow to be more critical in countries where access to other testing through geography or poverty was an issue. I think all test manufacturers will have a dilemma, as demand will far outstrip supplier, and buyers need to be savvy to secure them, whilst also being responsible and ensuring access to testing is available to all.

Mologic Antigen test validation had the support of Commonwealth and Development Office

What do the Commonwealth and Development Office do?? Advise on travel policy. A very clear indication that the Mologic test is on the radar for airport testing, aside from the fact we know it was used in trials.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwealth-development-office