Member Info for Merchantbanker

Kong - it doesn't matter when the test is from i share it for the picture not the content.

They have not given them £300m. It is "potentially worth over $300m to Avacta." It is all "could" "Potential" with no idea of the chance of success communicated but it is all development and experimental and not guaranteed. I agree this looks promising. I just would like to see them actually achieve some of these things before claiming success, same with the covid test. Deliver and then brag about it not the other way around.

The QR code is a sticker.

It is the Innova test

https://thestateindia.com/2020/10/20/coronavirus-uk-government-secures-up-to-20m-15-minute-test-kits/

Kong - it is understandable he talks with great enthusiasm about the company he founded. I suspect in the early stage he never expected the valuation to take off as quickly as it did, and has been under pressure since. He did the right thing raising capital it was too good an opportunity to not do it. But i am sorry he has at no point reasonably communicated the realistic chances of success. Everything has been talked about as a shoo in.

Your questions:

Again I take on board some of what you say but if you are seriously against this share why do you own shares in the company ? I do not own shares and have never held a position long or short. It's on my watch list and i have researched it probably much more than most people that post here
If you don’t, why do you come on here to be so antagonistic towards shareholders . I have no interest in being friend or foe, only calling it how i see it.
What is your reason behind your comments ? I dont believe the balance of risk/reward is fair here. I see far too much mistruths and i am entitled to add my opinion.
Why does it matter to you if the share price collapses ? Personally it does not impact me. I dont want to see other PIs lose money based on failed promises of CEOs. We have all been there. I wish i had listened to counter arguments in other stocks in the past.
And why does it matter if it risers several fold if you don’t own any shares ? It doesn't matter i will genuinely be happy for you if it happens but the chances of this are much much lower than the general comment on here would have you beleive.

The simple fact is this company have no track record of diagnostics devices used in real life, yet the single largest commercial opportunity comes along and they have you believing that they are going to lead the world when every expert scientist in diagnostics with years of proven success are working towards the same goal.

Take it or leave it filter me if you like or dont like

Not saying all lies DOH clearly AS is desperate for a test and trying hard, but not communicating the true chance of success. Many thousands of RNS have been written on AIM, mostly positive, probably less than 5% turn out to deliver what is promised.

Jmfw I have no interest in jeering either way. I’m on PIs side I don’t want to see people lose money but my current opinion is buyers are at a much greater risk than sellers. I hope this company deliver but the risks are not fairly communicated. This is where we differ I do care what Avacta achieve, despite the fact we have different opinions I don’t want you to lose money at the expense of me being right, id like to see them deliver, I’d love to have the saliva tests they promised available to us all, but what they have promised to shareholders, I think they have stretched it far beyond their capabilities.

Concept is outstanding
Reality yet to be proven and alarm bells high

In my opinion if Affimers where that great they would make enough money just by selling Affimers to other test developers, they wouldn’t need to develop their own test. Let other companies worry about the test performance and delivery. Focus on what you are good at. So far we have not seen them sign any other licence agreement with a test developer for Affimers. If they were a cut above in delivering an antigen test there would be a queue around the block

Jmfw-there are lots of things out there that prove to be good in the lab. But we are stepping outside the lab and claiming to deliver life saving tests of a quality above and beyond many other companies that have years of experience in delivering these solutions. Where is bams? There is nothing holding it up like the red tape with lateral flow devices.

DOH-where is the evidence about being the best performing Elisa test? That’s an AS comment. Why is it not being used if it’s the best?

I don’t buy all these comments about being worth up to x000 million based on milestone payments. It’s all highly speculative. I’ve got a lottery ticket that is worth up to £6m, until after the draw.

They are partnerships with low upfront commitment and are highly speculative and conditional upon success.

I really like the concept of Affimers and we can all agree how big the potential is. But this Antigen test was its chance to shine and to show that everything Avacta claim about them is true. They had 2 choices, play down their chances and if it comes off then fireworks, or ramp the crap out of it mislead the market on the chances of success, and then hope for a miracle. They picked the wrong option IMO.

Nice post hants....some good points. it’s all down to a leap of faith on Affimers.

Jmfw- lol damn!

You can say it all you like but it has got naff all to do with any other company. This is about avacta. Tell me I am wrong that this does not 100% rely on Unproven Affimer technology. If Affimers are no good, which they have proven to be since launching in 2013 then that’s game over for avacta. You might not like it and I may be proven to be wrong, but it’s just as fair an account based on the current available information than any other view.

It never seems to end well when AIM CEO's are delighted. Define excellent progress? Your definition will be different to 100 other peoples definitions. Its lingo designed to make the reader think £££££ whilst being non specific so that down the line if things don't work they can say they never promised anything. Just take a proper look at BBI. Why do they need Avacta? They can deliver their own comprehensive solution to a test. The only thing Avacta have to offer are Affimers and they have never delivered a diagnostics device used in the medical profession. There are many companies out there delivering reagents with methods that have been proven to work for many years.

The £75m was as of the summer. The need for antibody testing has greatly increased now the vaccines are ready maybe 3 months earlier than expected. We found out about the £75m nearly 6 months after it happened. How many others are there we dont know about? Does an earlier vaccine leave CK scratching around trying to bring forward the manufacturing expansion?

Satallite - that is conditional on there being a test. Having a manufacturing agreement without a product is about as useful as having a set of keys to a Ferrari without a Ferrari. IF the test was a home run they wouldn't have 3 antigen tests lined up as they disclosed in their prospectus, given the expected demand one quality test would absorb all capacity.

Hants - Hitting the nail on the head. Why would BBI develop a test for avacta? Surely BBI with their development expertise and their in house reagents development could develop their own test for themselves if it were that easy? Why would they do all the hard work to hand over to Avacta to bank all the profit? Avacta have nothing to bring to the party other than reagents which are unproven. BBI/Abingdon/Cytiva do not need Avacta - Avacta desperately need them.

Abingdon and BBI will be producing Avacta tests when pigs fly IMHO.

Chris Whitty during yesterday's conference commented that very few people have natural immunity, meaning those that have had Covid-19. That was an admittance of immunity through prior infection. I just wish they would let us have a home antibody test to test ourselves.

People need to really be more aware of the expertise of Mologic. I'm not sure what i find crazier, ODX share price, or the fact people are backing a company with no proven record of successful diagnostics over a company with Mologic's profile. Even with partners involved, these two companies are leagues apart in diagnostics development. They are not 3 weeks apart they are light years apart. Look what they have achieved and look who back them. In all likelihood Abingdon will be making Mologic tests.

The ideal solution could be an antigen and IgM test. This could greatly improve on the performance of detecting infectious people over an antigen test alone. IgM starts to peak as the viral load starts to decline.

This could be the new type of test the government talk about and the reason the tenders have been withdrawn because of a shift in direction.

ODX do not have an MTA for the dual test but its highly likely this would be just a formality.

https://www.omegadiagnostics.com/Products/COVID-19

https://mologic.co.uk/our-core-markets/global-health/

Mologic trialed Aptamers, we have no idea what reagent they are using but most likely antibody. They have the pick of all available reagents. Having a wide range of available reagents is always going to increase your chances of success over trying to produce a test with specific reagents.

Colin has said from the start they are building capacity and products to be used in the long run rather than buy kit just for a crisis.