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There is still no way on earth uk manufacturers can supply the number of tests required.

JS just looking at it - IDH was Omega's commercial partner for Allergy testing. As you say their anitgen test is provided by partners. Perhaps their test is our test/mologics test

Personally i'd rather back Mologic's test. If it's good enough for Bill Gates to through $27m their way......

Colin King in the last presentation.......

We are scaling up production capacity as part of Operation Moonshot
Mologic Antigen test expected to start TT this month - priority 4-6 week process. An xmas present

Boris J - Expect to be making them in this country soon

How much clearer do you want it.

We will have the 2 most in demand Covid LFT, scaling up to 2/2.5m tests per week (Worth £20m profit per month) and probably higher

This share price is an absolute steal. Its an easy multibag.

I've said from the beginning when i first invested the value is in the manufacturing capacity. We have significant commercial opportunity with the plan Colin King and his team have devised. They may be reliant on others for development of the tests and regulatory clearance, but they have negotiated incredible commercial terms that will benefit Omega almost as if they had developed the tests themselves, but without the huge capital outlay or risk. If worst comes to it, we have lateral flow capacity we can offer to any approved test owner. They currently have to go abroad because the lateral flow manufacturing capacity of this country would fall on its feet and leave us with supply issues. Even going through the process of scaling up during this year the capacity is insufficient. Chinese companies had far in excess of current uk companies capacity even before Covid.

Assessment of risk reward is so important in investing. This is a no brainer.

Very good reason for using external supply first. Its to do with security of supply. You don't want to run out of supply and then have to go external as you will be at the back of the queue. Short term solution use overseas supply enable stock supplies homegrown to be built up. There will be a transition period over the next few months

I would expect IIs to take positions on the confirmation of an Antigen test or MHRA approval.

JG - Yes presents an opportunity for the likes of myself that happy to keep absorbing stock and wait for profits

The main reason the share price is and has been undervalued for some time is the impact of the IIs selling down. These are positions that unexpectedly due to the Covid opportunity surpassed the exit targets and ass such have been a constant drain on the sp because of over supply. This is no reflection at all on the future prospect of the company. They have made their money and moved on. So far we are yet to hear of any new IIs.

9% Oryx
4.5% Octopus
25% Sneller
12.88% L&G

So a total of 51% of the shareholding held by 4 players pre covid now gone replaced with PI's trying to wave a covid play. Okay there has been some dilution in between, but doesn't change the story. Lets say the average MCAP was £100m. That's £51m of impatient PI money coming in to replace these holdings. That is huge for any stock of this size.

When a stock drops you have to look at the potential reasons. We have one clear reason here.

The others:

Vaccine news - We now know it is far from a silver bullet and that our antibody test has a much wider market use with a vaccine
Guardian article - Completely unjust and assessed based on misplaced methods of appraisal
Good Law Project - The case is flimsy at best. The committed spend is a fraction of what UK Gov have and will spend on Covid. By investing and securing supply at favourable price that is better use of public money so the argument is floored and hangs on the same research as the guardian article which has been challenged with a strong response.
Poor Elisa sales - Yep they hold their hands up the big players have the lab presence and infrastructure. Proposed new lab testing service. Double lateral flow capacity plan recognising that is where the opportunity lies
Lack of Gov orders for ABC-19 - It's clear a bigger order is already penciled in. It is a highly competitive test and demand will be there outside of uk gov at more favourable profit margins
Abingdon IPO causing investors to jump ship - well currently 15% down on the suggested price, with a much more profitable business plan
MHRA approval - appears to just require a signature which is likely being held back politically
Cash - They have raised cash already and have the funds for expansion to £2m. Each month net cash inflow will start to increase substantially over the next few months.
Antigen test - Mologic received $27m odd from Gates. It's been used in Heathrow and NHS trials and recently in a webcast Mologic suggested CE mark was expected any day

Really the only real risk factors are:

Antigen test fails - so we make more antibody tests and offer our manufacturing capacity to other producers
Covid goes away overnight - as much as we would all love that, its not going to happen. Pandemics take years to control and will likely move to localised endemics.

So you have to look at why the sp has performed how it has and it's clear it's driven by the 51% sell off causing a domino effect of PIs judging the company purely based on shar

Jollygood - one final point before i crack on with the work i've been dipping in and out of all day..... the margins in the finncap report are largely based on the Mologic/Visitect tests being export tests largely to lower income markets. I think the visitect antibody test is getting some traction here so we might achieve a better price. Also the antigen test Mologic set out to make was aimed at lower income countries, but i suspect they expected much more competition than they currently have and now could have a product that are right up with the best this country can procure. They want to be socially responsible on price, but there might be potential for higher price per unit. We already know the ABC-19 test price is higher than indicated. So I am fairly confident finncap is a prudent view.

Personally i think the diagnostics industry is elevated in importance from what it was in 2019. The expertise and the business that Omega have will come out of this worth considerably more. They will learn so much from this, create new alliances etc. This will show what can be achieved. It may open the floodgates to a a major shift in lateral flow testing for other diseases. Plus the industry was already predicted to grow many times over before covid. Plus they will also have a war chest of free cash flow to invest. CK from the outset has wanted to build manufacturing capacity with a view to continued use beyond covid.

Lovejoy - It is very difficult to state what the core business is worth today as if it wasn't for covid, Food and Cd4 would be priced somewhere between current value and future potential and it's hard to know how much the market would price in. Again Finncap give a range on food and cd4 with a sum of the parts valuation.

you will need to sign up. Search for Omega its the one the day after the fundraise. It's not perfect but it will give you a good idea. Remember Elisa is low take up and LFT are 2x bigger.

FInncap report is on their website under research

Yeah i think the reagent is the key. It's one of the reasons the mass testing products are taking so long, but i do think they have had time since this was identified back in March/April to scale up. I think it was in one of the Mologic presentations they mentioned it and they looked at a number of options. But based on Mologic's goal to produce a test for low income countries i'm expecting cost to be favourable. I think i did also read somewhere they were expecting reagents to be supplied for the low income country supply at cost or close but i can't recall where.

Perhaps if they put the £33k into ODX they might have 100k by xmas.....? Just a thought.

Oops small mistake! Tests per week not month

For Antigen test i reckon around £2.50 total cost, £5 selling price. CK says 50% margin and Fincapp say £5 per test.

So with 1.8m Antigen tests per month and 0.2m UK RTC tests per WEEK (probably the ideal product mix for profitability) they can make just over £20m profit per month, £244m per year. Assume £50m a year corp costs being prudent, with say £10m profit from core business first year, again being prudent, we can work on a FY net profit of circa £204m. Earnings multiplier of 5, which is low (industry is 9) gives you just over £1bn mcap (currently about £5.60 per share).

3/4 months away from getting to that level and people are throwing shares away at 40p!!! Clueless. So many people say it's pie in the sky, but the business plan is there to see. Calculations very easy to do. 2m tests is nothing in the grand scheme of the global testing requirement. For me tests at that level until at least 2025. Oh and they can probably increase it further still.

For Antigen test i reckon around £2.50 total cost, £5 selling price. CK says 50% margin and Fincapp say £5 per test.

So with 1.8m Antigen tests per month and £0.2m UK RTC tests per month (probably the ideal product mix for profitability) they can make just over £20m profit per month, £244m per year. Assume £50m a year corp costs being prudent, with say £10m profit from core business first year, again being prudent, we can work on a FY net profit of circa £204m. Earnings multiplier of 5, which is low (industry is 9) gives you just over £1bn mcap (currently about £5.60 per share).

3/4 months away from getting to that level and people are throwing shares away at 40p!!! Clueless. So many people say it's pie in the sky, but the business plan is there to see. Calculations very easy to do. 2m tests is nothing in the grand scheme of the global testing requirement. For me tests at that level until at least 2025. Oh and they can probably increase it further still.

Sorry was 10m within 6 months from July so by end Jan assuming no use of extra capacity. It also states that Abingdon have already secured the materials for 10m.

"In total, the UK-RTC can manufacture 10m tests within a six-month period. Abingdon Health has acquired all the materials needed for all the members of the consortium to manufacture the test for this initial 10m tests and the consortium is now ready to produce this high quality test at scale"

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/uk-covid-19-rapid-antibody-tests-approved-for-professional-use/

Reasonable assumption...also, cant remember where it was published, but it was mentioned the UK RTC could produce 10m tests by the end of the year. Coincidence?

Twatcher the raw material cost for the cassette manufacture by Omega is not the only cost. So the £1.50 only covers the sealed cassette. You also have the finger prick device, buffer solution, collection tube and packaging. We don't know if the £10.3m covers the lot. I agree its probably for 10/15m.

If the price to government is £5 it could be as follows (just guessing at figures for indication):

£1.50 for cassette
£2.50 for rest completion of the packaged product
£1.00 profit towards development costs, legal and reg costs etc.

Any remaining profit split per profit share agreement. It's probably minimal and will kick in for non gov sales.