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Mologic were trialling a number of reagents. One of the advantages of being a test developer is you can trial different reagents. Avct have to nail the reagent and nail the test design which is why chance of success is low. One of the advantages of having manufacturing capacity is you don’t need to nail either.
Antibodies are not struggling with specificity as shown in the Innova test which uses conjugated antibodies and has specificity 99.68%.

I suspect avacta test failed the sensitivity standard and is not one of the final 4/6 test in gov validation, hence the change of direction with swab which really shouldn’t delay the developer much if at all. PHE reported on 11th Nov they had 4 tests in final validation, avct issued rns on 23rd with change of direction.

Expected to hear what the 4 tests with sufficient sensitivity are this week

Duble D I don't like getting involved in personal remarks on here as I really don't care who is who or what people think, you can take what i say or leave it, makes no difference to me......

But you are one of the most boring posters i've come across never add anything of worthy input. You seem like one of those that would cut off their nose to spite their face. If you dont like my posts which are to share research, provoke discussion and debate and maybe help people understand or consider things they might have missed, ask questions do or do research they might not have done, then ignore them.

Many times i have referred to Smallpox on here, the last virus to be eradicated. And that was not on this scale, ok nowhere near as much money thrown at it and science has moved on considerably.

Vaccine invented 1796
Focus on the , compulsory childhood vaccination in 1853, not removed until 1970/72. Thats how long the threat was around, despite UK/US declared eradication in 1930s
Impact of imported overseas cases over a number of years.
Last known global case detected in 1977, but disease not declared eradicated until 1980.

The still keep stocks of emergency vaccines.

What we learn. takes years to roll out localised vaccine programmes
Globally many countries will be years behind the most developed countries like UK
Vaccination of newborns will be required long after mass population vaccination complete
The threat from overseas will always be there an unaffected by local immunisation

The threat of the virus will be there and therefore the need to test to isolate any remote cases for years after it is under control

It is years between the last cases and declared eradication, requiring testing to e that confidence.

Several countries stock pile vaccines for eternity after eradication in case it ever resurfaces and can be controlled quickly.

Testing required for many years. Even after eradication to confirm eradication

It is a global problem which is always as bad as the worst countries to control it. Omega have tests at price points, scalability and accessibility with lateral flow to go anywhere in the world to meet demand quickly.

There will be a constant threat for importation a immigration which cannot be controlled from national vaccination programmes.

Newborns for a number of years also pose a significant threat to spread and may require compulsory vaccination.

Vaccination means there is still risk which means there is still testing

People saying 5 years of covid testing is massively underestimating IMO

https://www.livescience.com/65304-smallpox.html#:~:text=The%20last%20known%20naturally%20occurring,was%20eradicated%20solely%20through%20vaccination.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK545998/

https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases

Yep, strong offering from ODX this week. I suspect they are not done yet.

CK is a top CEO IMO. Taken some time to adapt to the unexpected heightened profile, but commercially top drawer, and have great confidence in him adding substantial value. This is not your normal AIM company.

Expecting Mologic test to be announced some time this week. I guess they didn't want Omega stealing their thunder!

js - spot on. Funny how PIs take their confidence from!

Do you back a company that Gates and UK Gov have backed and have proven success in delivering commercial quality diagnostics (Mologic) or one that have zero track record of success and no evidence of any progression to commercialise. This is a highly sought after test which many of the worlds leading experts ae working on, tell me who is more likely to come up with the goods?

Asking for orders is not understanding the business model and the strategy. CK has been very honest and open about when he expects to see demand for each product and is evident in the capacity scale up to match said demand. Meanwhile the distribution channels will satisfy early sales to the level of current achieved capacity, otherwise they are building a stock pile for when demand does go through the roof hence, more concentrated sales above capacity in that period.

Best COVID play with the 3 best tests and the most sought after tests. 2021 will be the year of the lateral flow and odx are as well placed as anyone to benefit. This week expect Mologic antigen test news, capacity update Oct/Nov sold out with forward sales for Dec. Might even see Finncap pull their finger out. 2 rns in the morning like last year. Confirmation of the other 9/14m Uk gov abc test could come this week.
All the while the so is undervalued just take advantage. That’s what the bottom feeders are trying to do. Only going one way. £20m+ a month profit come April.

£1.20+ on Mologic antigen test news by end of week

Too much focus on government sales. People would pay for these tests out of their own pocket. Who wouldn't buy an ABC-19 test if they could order one from amazon next day delivery? Who wouldn't buy a box of antigen tests to test the family before meeting up over xmas? That is where we would be in an ideal world. My guess is this time next year thats more likely where we will be.

Trilla Finncap work for the company not the IIs. I'm really not that surprised they have taken their profits based on the circumstances of being an unexpected gain. It has nothing to do with them having inside info.

The point about them not offering a target. Actually the sum of the parts valuation they give is actually quite prudent but points to a valuation substantially higher. They could quite easily give ranges based on utilisation rates and a target price. There is not a chance in hell that any valuation they come up with is lower that the mcap which they already suggested was underpinned by the core business even before ChIna self test approval and CD4 WHO approval.

Upomega - where there is money to be made the lack of regulation and transparency enables a market view presented to PIs that is far from what it seems. Somehow shares are being exchanged on the cheap. Every single buy is matched with a ready supply of sells on the book meaning buying pressure rarely moves it up and then when pis come in with sells they take it down. The Mms i am certain could quite easily trade this in a higher range, if they start taking in up for a few days sentiment will come back. They need to give some profits back to encourage traders because at the moment it doesn't look attractive with the downtrend. The fact they dont appear to want to do that suggests there is a longer term move in play. I do think when it flushes itself out it will move up very quickly. If we get the antigen test and MHRA approval by xmas we should be £2 plus easy in my opinion , hopefully with those delivered it takes away the opportunity to under price this.

JAdam - I'm just astonished by the crap i read day in and day out here an on other bbs. The things some people take confidence from vs the actual evidence people are willing to ignore beggars belief.

One thing Omega can do and i hope they have done ready for next week, is sit down with Finncap and help them work out some scenario assumptions and forecasts and look at target ranges. Finncap for me are the biggest disappointment, i'm sure they are more to blame than any. Supposed to be the broker they have enable 51% of the company to be sold down on the open market way 8undervalue with so far no new IIs, there a MM in the stock and they say they dont have enough to go on to make some forecasts, when they have chosen to do so on another client with nowhere near the same level of certainties. Some bullish Oct/Nov sales with a bullish update on capacity expansion and hopefully products, backed up by a bullish accompanying broker note is what we need.

Well they have communicated.... just under 30 days ago they delivered a presentation with a world class business plan worth £1bn based on achieving the capacity, which is only 4 months away.

They published the Q&A

They had a forced communication regarding unjust press allegations ]

The FDA application for ABC-19

They then delivered the China food self test approval

They have done video on food tolerance and cd4.

Sharebuyers A&A

Tweet in support of antibody immunity

Tweets in support of antibody tests use with vaccines efficacy

Tweet reinforcing the cpacity expansion plan and short term use of that capacity

https://twitter.com/OmegaDiagnostic/status/1321798576129908739?s=20

Sorry but blaming comms is just wrong. All the information is there in black and white. It is as simple as a business can get to work out the value of all the information highlighted above.

The simple fact is people are ignoring the content and reacting only to the share price.

The share price is on a downward spiral because of 51% of the company being sold down by 4 players causing a domino effect and for pi sentiment to ignore what is blatantly obvious from the actual company communications.

There is a highly profitable and enterprising business plan here. Investors will do very well to understand it and judge the companies success on what they deliver, not based on a share price that is seriously undervalued, at the mercy of market forces along with amateur traders that have no idea exactly what they are dealing in.

Mondays H1 financials are already known and people are losing their sht panicking about another drop. What you should be thinking about as CK indicated in the last presentation is what the H2 results in 6 months time will look like. I'm expecting £20-£30m profit, and that's before they have even achieved peak capacity which can get them over £300m profit for the next financial year.

For those not aware of the distinction between nasal swab ans Nasopharyngeal swab

https://ldh.la.gov/assets/oph/Center-PHCH/Center-CH/infectious-epi/CV19/COVID19_Sample_Collection_Nasopharyngeal_and_NasalSwab.pdf

Have a look at last year. They told us about orders in Oct and Nov. Only this year is on a larger scale.

All we need is confirmation in Oct they made 200k a week and Nov 300k a week and they are all sold, and that manufacturing capacity is on tract for 500k a week in dec and they are already sold, and we are on track to go to 2m by april. That's the minimum imo. Should have done upwards of £6m in tests in Oct/Nov.

Symbo i think its all about supply capabilities and capacity. No good having the best test in the world if demand is 50m a month and you can only supply 1m. That is why you have to secure overseas supply first. Same with PPE. Look at that model. The priority is to secure supply short term whilst the infrastructure builds up to secure home grown supply long term.

Is the test provided by Siemens Healthcare? Performance spec matches.

https://static.healthcare.siemens.com/siemens_hwem-hwem_ssxa_websites-context-root/wcm/idc/groups/public/@global/@lab/@poc/documents/download/mdew/mdez/~edisp/antigen_rapid_covid-19_antigen_test_final_10_19_20-07531568.pdf

IDH could be selling Siemens Healthcare test. Performance spec matches.

https://static.healthcare.siemens.com/siemens_hwem-hwem_ssxa_websites-context-root/wcm/idc/groups/public/@global/@lab/@poc/documents/download/mdew/mdez/~edisp/antigen_rapid_covid-19_antigen_test_final_10_19_20-07531568.pdf