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Pandy the best place for honest answers is in the latest presentation by the company. Sales forecasts are there along with price guides. Save hearing it from over ramped posters.

TCO - Exactly. It's not as if CK has over promised. I think we have to accept any 2020 sales are a bonus and it's all about 2021. That would have been unthinkable in April. But what rationalises it is we still appear to be ahead of the competition when it comes to lateral flow tests high quality.
The Visitect antibody test appears to be gaining traction which of course is not controlled by gov, and the Antigen test will follow. If you look back at media in the summer, mass antibody tests was always an end of year goal.

Redboy i know it doesn't feel like it but they are operating by the book the way a company should operate. It's just the reality is AIM investors have grown to expect to be sold dreams every day placing value on well written RNS that in truth are misleading and rarely amount to anything in an poorly regulated market that exists for the sole purpose of raising equity. If you compare ODX to a large FTSE business and see how they communicate you get what i mean. You communicate a business plan identifying the risk profile and then you delver and the proof is in the financials.

Perhaps ODX do need to adapt to their new audience but is it right to expect them to ramp up the prospects just to look after impatient investors positions? The comms is there. When they did the last presentation for example some people moaned about it saying its not material news. There are some real nuggets in there. But the truth is people want material news and they cant give it until it is ready.

For example:

They have communicated the strategy business plan and product timeframes. It is clear as can be
Capacity expansion through April
Antigen test expected by end of Nov
Antigen test used in Heathrow trials, Nottingham drive through and other health settings
MHRA approval they can't say when it will be approved
They expect further government orders but so far no contracts signed
They expect vaccines to create significant demand for ABC-19
We know non gov sales are highly likely
We know there is a profit share for non gov sales
We know they have gone for FDA approval
All of their capacity through Nov was taken up as of mid Oct
We can make reasonable profitability assumptions based on the finncap report
There is some excellent info and profitability info on CD4 and food tolerance

The information is all out there in multiple locations. What people really want is the high ticket items, MHRA approval, CE mark antigen and a large significant government order. They cant announce what isnt complete. And peoples perception of poor comms is really the lack of mnaterial news.

DD the companies are not playing anybody. They are trying to develop and deliver tests to solve a pandemic. UK RTC are only 20% of our business plan. The Ciga tweet is genuine. Perhaps suggesting the demand for ABC-19 is in the billions is premature, bu7t the market is certainly there. There are no conspiracies here. Look at lateral flow tests in general. The market literally just opened up for them. All tests are in the same boat. There is a strategy here and we have to wait for it to play out. What would be the point in releasing 200k tests a week to the market. They need to get supply to the required level and performance to the required level. Were operating in a very difficult market regulation and development, and we have the best possible product portfolio. There are no conspiracies here.

DD you can gloat all you like about share price. This domino effect of negative sentiment is wrong. It might be the right sp for current sentiment, which is purely driven itself, but it is far from where it should be based on future earnings. You'll have to come back this time next year and make a call whether i'm right or not. Too many people want to be on the right way of short term movers and gloat about it. I'm not for this stock, i'm holding for the significant profits coming.

Yeah lets think what has Colin done....

apart from take a company that were selling tests in the tens of thousands per year to a company set to sell 2.5m tests per week.

or join the UK RTC which has developed on of the worlds leading covid tests

or sign an MTA with Mologic to brand their developed tests as their own with highly sought after tests

or deliver on 2 key core business milestones of China self test approval and CD4 WHO approval.

Why do you think that is..... if the market makers completely destroy sentiment who's going to get left holding the baby if there is no test? They need PIs to keep buying. Here if PIs sell only they are happy because they know as well as i do whats happening here.

This is exactly what the system is designed to do. Bleed out as many PIs as possible. They are not going to give away profits to PIs that easily, this is why financial institutions can survive. When they know they can take a share down quickly they run it up (sky interview with a known placing coming), when they know they can take it up quickly, they walk it down (significant material news). Imagine having the ability to drive the price where you want to buy and sell.

Symbo spot on, this is a global problem that will take years to eradicate. The other thing to add to that listening to Jon Bell last night or was it Van Tan i cant remember, they dont yet know if a vaccinated individual is prevented from passing on the virus. Which means vaccinated individuals are not yet considered no threat to transmission. They talked about other vaccines that may offer greater protection. Therefore just because you are vaccinated and self protected it doesn't necessarily mean you will be allowed freedom of movement. Testing still a huge part to play.

That first spike was purely city driven. They knew exactly what they were doing. SP action since the UK Gov award is just a joke. Just hold in your head the value of 2.5m tests per week. The success of the business plan is all that matters ultimately.

Sorry on top of labour add in other standard costing allocations such as electricity, equipment depreciation. Point is if cost per unit is 70p, its not 70p in raw materials.

Twatcher - no you are forgetting labour which will be the highest costs. £10m can probably supply materials for for more like 40m tests.

Why not just read the Gov contract if any doubts......

Some highlights. Contract dated 1 June - when did we find out. And you think there isn't an embargo hiding further developments?

It says in the contract the parties will receive a "reasonable return" due to the commitment to the test above other activities.

It states in the government contract that the parties to the UK RTC should have a revenue share agreement

It also talks about significant orders

It also tells you the £10m contract is just for components of the first order. (Number of tests blacked out)

https://atamis-1928.cloudforce.com/sfc/p/#0O000000rwim/a/4J000000kE0b/4GX1_UMogDlN5UZ6w.bYa9R.LIbF5wHYLUljGrLS6gk

Regarding the Abingdon IPO - We are linked to Abingdon only in 20% of our business. Abingdon role as the lead in the consortium is a red herring. Im not convinced the IPO will go ahead, particularly as rumoured, but the fact PIs dont even know how they can take part or any detail at all speaks volumes as they are clearly not scraping around for funds. When you look at an IPO look out how much the current shareholders retain. If it's 80% they will likely give the other 20% at a discount in order to grow the business and increase the value of the 80% retained. If they give up 80% and retain 20, they likely want top dollar for the control given up.

People are judging the PR based on SP. Of course they could have done more to ramp it up.... but the question i would ask is is that really what they should be doing? It might be normal practice with AIM, but most of the time it's by companies that never follow through on their promises. What you have here is a risk reward play. For me it's a dream as the upside is substantial with low downside, and very low risk. An undervalued share price is a chance to build a bigger position. I have added again this morning and i will keep doing so until they reach peak capacity in April.

Nextyearrodders - spot on. The role of a company is to deliver and then tell us. Unfortunately with aim stocks people prefer to be sold dreams.

I believe profit share was mentioned in the last presentation and Q&A.

The best indicator of sales will be the H2 accounts. Of course we will get updates before then but financials can't lie.

The point is, we are in a global pandemic where even in the UK they still expect billions to be spent on testing, we have the most sought after products you could get. Why do you think sales are an issue? The lateral flow market is yet to be opened properly yet, they are just dipping the toe in. It will open up and it will be one of the most sought after medical devices in history next year.

Flashy if it suits you to take some off the table i never discourage it. I think your reasons are unfounded though.

I'm fairly certain that if the IPO lists at £100m that it will be 50-150% up within a mater of days. Just because it is rumoured to be priced at £100m, that doesn't mean it's what it is worth. Remember they are raising equity which is always discounted, and it appears they are retaining the majority of the shareholding meaning free float will be low and they will be happy to raise a low % at a discounted price to increase production. BTW their production capacity without the listing is less than ODX plan, and wont be significantly higher after.
The IP is a non issue as far as i am concerned. It is all about what you can make it for and what you sell it for. We have a profit share. Remember Oxford are developing the test this is not Abingdon's to own it is a consortium test. I agree that it needs a bigger player to enter in order to achieve the numbers required but you are wrong to think Abingdon will be the sole beneficiary. The profit share is there. The Antigen and VIsitect test will stand ODX in greater financial holding along with food and CD4. I would like to be ODX full year profit will be more favourable than Abingdon.

Even if they only sell 1m tests a month, that is more profit than the current MCAP which would mean this should be at least 5 x higher.
They have the best portfolio of Covid tests they could possibly achieve. The market for these tests will be many billions. We only need to sell a small fraction of that and with the best tests out there, why do people struggle to appreciate that?
Sorry but the strategy and state of play with sales and products couldn't be any clearer than what has been communicated in the recent presentation and ABC-19 update.

Stop falling for the domino effect on sentiment. Just work out the numbers.

Profits for next year will exceed the current MCAP. Simple. If you ca look at that and realise this is under priced and presents a huge opportunity and instead decide to sulk and moan about the company, then you epitomise the reasons so many PIs lose money.