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Finncap haven't put a broker target because it doesn’t suit them to do so for whatever reason. They had no problem putting a target together for avct who have a lot more unknowns and a lower chance of success.

Upomega - please explain to me how a company listing at £100m can take over a company valued at £100m? I'm pretty sure that offer would get voted down by shareholders!!

Certainly would make sense

The only thing i am happy about here is the SP. Things really do not add up. You just have to remember that £30m plus of large shareholders sells have to be absorbed by PI money. That is a lot of PI money. Especially when said sell off reduces confidence. But the sp is the only factor that reflects negatively on ODX. There is definitely some impact of the Abingdon IPO. As i mentioned earlier if it lists at £100m with 20% free float, i expect it to close a lot higher than £100m by the end of the first week.

What i do know is we have the two most sought after covid tests in the world. UK RTC will get self test approval as soon as politically it suits. Mologic will deliver the antigen test. I am certain that we could sell our capacity many many times over with either test. The business plan is hedged. It is high margin. High demand products. I am certain that once we get to 2.5m tests per week they will generate at least £250m profit a year for 3 years. The gap between future value of the planned capacity vs todays value is immense. It will close. Whatever the down pressure that we are experiencing and anything else you can throw at it, omega will go about their business and deliver a fine set of accounts. You can't argue with profit. It has no room for interpretation or alternate view. It is fact. I honestly still cannot work out how 2.5m is enough to satisfy Omega's commitment to 25% of the total UK RTC demand as well as Antigen tests. What we don't want is to use too much capacity for lower margin tests and not be able to make antigen tests. I'm sure something bigger has to happen to satisfy the demand of both tests, whether it is Omega driven or by other or new interested parties. I have 100% confidence in the business model, and that they will deliver the size of profits i am expecting, which if honest is prudent. Opinions on tests, vaccines, politics is irrelevant. 2021 will be the year of the lateral flow and it may well start a month early just to warm up. There is no listed business that i know of that are better placed to take advantage, and that stands if/when abingdon list (If they have any sense they will be all over Mologic with CK referral sniffing around their antigen tests).

Hypermarlin - Not surprising they aren't going to give a sure bet away to PIs. I still wouldn't be surprised if it gets announced before listing that they have been bought out off exchange for much more than £100m. The problem with that is that any prospective buyer that is planning on massively up scaling capacity knows there is a profit share agreement in place for the other members. Well played CK.

Orders should be assumed when capacity is the restricting factor. There will never be enough tests to meet demand.

This should be seen like an oil company. You value it on BOPD knowing those barrels have commercial value depending on the price. Really this is similar as the key thing is production capacity. They will sell everything they make. The only question is will UK RTC sales be at the lower government price or higher third party price and therefore we get a higher profit share. A good problem to have.

You would be wrong to assume abingdon are a better investment. They clearly both have a lot of legs, but just because Abingdon are the lead that doesn't make them a priority investment. ODX more profitable products re CD4 and food tolerance for starters.
I do think the IPO is holding us back but valuing ODX at Abingdon IPO price is absurd. I expect Abingdon to increase significantly on IPO with only 20% free float. Abingdon free float of 20% vs Omega of almost 100% you may see abingdon move more aggressively but you will probably pay a premium too. Why can you not find any info on Abingdon IPO or a prospectus? Clearly they have investors lines up. It is not going to list at £100m and sell off.

FigTreeHarry - Yep, but very easy to stick up for the fundamentals here

"Once a vaccine has been proven the need for testing is basically eradicated."

That statement makes far too many assumptions, many more than the assumption that testing will still be required. It assumes it will pass final trials, it will be produced in required quantities, it will give lifelong immunity, it will not have problems down the line, that people will take it, that all countries around the world will proceed at the same speed.

How long will it take to vaccinate 7.6bn people? Will we need annual vaccines? How many people will take the vaccine? How will countries compare to UK? It could take 18 months to roll out vaccines in the UK. US is likely to take longer, and they may be even less receptive to a vaccine. If wealthy countries take 1-3 years, what about low income countries?

Recommend reading this.
https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases

I am talking about Omega's ability to deliver 104m tests a year for a couple of years. Even if demand reduces significantly, it will still be multiples of our capacity. The testing demand over the next year could be many billions. If it drops 70& over the next 5 years its still huge for our capacity.

I am not recommending anyone put any eggs anywhere, i will never tell anyone to buy or sell. I am only interesting in objective and subjective commentary of the investment proposal. Don't care if people are in or out.

I see so many misconceptions of lack of understanding about ODX - Here are a few.

They have no IP - They will brand Mologic's test as their own, and there is a profit share of the UK RTC test. They have no expensive development costs. IP is worthless without making and selling. What Omega have is much more valuable than IP that may never achieve commercial sales. Margins will be 50% plus.

It needs orders - So far they are consuming their capacity to the full. You cannot sell what you can make. The lateral flow market has barely opened up yet. Next year will be the year of the lateral flow. Its about cumulative sales, not just one big order.

Vaccine will mean testing is not required - Don't just think about the UK, think globally. Many countries will be years behind sadly. Diseases cannot be eradicated in months, it takes years. Vaccines are still very much unproven and unknown, and we can only learn more by monitoring the immune response which requires testing. Many people will refuse the vaccine. Borders will need protecting.

Comms is poor - We have had top quality presentations and q&a amongst value adding updates. They can only tell us what legally they are allowed to.

Sentiment is poor - this is really share price reaction driven and not fundamentals driven.

SP projections of £2+ are impossible - Do the maths. It's not difficult to work out. Even on pis poor performance it's worth multiples.

Abingdon IPO will negatively impact ODX - They are not going to list and retain 80% of the company if their is a risk or that value going down. We have alignment of interests, but actually ODX are much better placed in this pandemic and have a much stronger core business.

The Polio vaccine has been around for 65 years!!! It's hardly the same as one rushed together in 6 months!! I think they should know enough about it by now. The last case of polio in the UK was 36 years ago. Therefore the risk is small, herd immunity is high and incidence is zero. So why would you test for it? Covid is a live pandemic, you cannot compare it to any other disease. If you think Covid will get to where Polio is in the space of a few months you have no clue.... Look at the dates above again.... vaccine invested in 1955, last case in the UK 1984. Science has moved on and nothing has had money thrown at it like this, but this is a very lengthy process, one that many countries around the world will be years behind the UK and other wealth countries. Our borders will need protecting. It's just a very narrow minded view to suggest a vaccine which many people may not even take will eradicate a pandemic so quick that Omega will not benefit from years of testing.

Jammy so and so!

No it is nowhere near the same. The risk of those diseases is all very minimal and localised to specific regions. Vaccinations are done at childhood or on travel to specific regions. There is already a degree of herd immunity through vaccinations. Vaccinations have been well tested and around for years with efficacy well analysed. Low risk + long history of evidence. Covid doesn't not have either. This is a new disease with no history, no protection low immunity levels and highly contagious. Those diseases wont risk you wiping out your family going home for xmas. They wont risk overrunning our hospitals. There are tests for all those diseases you just wouldn't know about it unless you had it or had reason to believe you had it, which the chances are very low as explained above.

If anything i would question if they have been aggressive enough in expanding. The numbers simply don't add up, from the known capacity for UK RTC and anyone that has an antigen test, it is nowhere near enough. There has to be a big player involved in increasing capacity.

When was the last time virtually every country on the planet went into hiding for flu? How long has the flu vaccine been available? I could go on....

0.5 even.

JH-Spot on. We don't need to sell billions of tests. 2m per week is highly lucrative to ODX and that is a drop in the ocean and could be antibody or antigen. It is all about capacity utilisation and that will unlikely be filled in one flagship contract, so the lack of that should not be seen as a failure. Testing shortfall, will sell all they can make. £400m of profit available over the next 24 months. Beggars belief it's valued at a forward P/E of 0.25.

Regulator- I agree, i think the best thing for the industry would be a merger but it would have to involve a big player in order to ramp up capacity significantly.
A merger between UK RTC companies would be great but unlikely IMO. IPO is expensive and the raising of capital is key for expansion so if they are taking that route i'd guess the plan is to grow the value.

Regulator - i think it makes no difference re a takeover bid. As a private company they would have to accept a bid. As a listed company retaining 80% they still have control.

I really cannot see them letting it go this cheap when they know what is coming, so more than likely the plan is to raise funds for further expansion, and build up the market cap then they can start selling down shares as part of a partial exit strategy.

What i meant by takeover negotiation tactic, is if say they had an offer of X, and they said no we want X * 2 otherwise we will go public. But i think unlikely.

Regulator - i suspect many will do the same. It could fly after an IPO. Can't see it being a better investment than ODX though, especially with the Mologic antigen tests, although i wouldn't rule out abingdon also working with mologic.

There is a part of me that is wondering if the threat of an IPO is a negotiation tactic against a takeover bid.