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Tricky - no i think you are right it says 80% acceptable, 97% desirable but they run teh calcs at 75%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/how-tests-and-testing-kits-for-coronavirus-covid-19-work/target-product-profile-point-of-care-sars-cov-2-detection-tests

Looking at Innova sensitivity of 76% that is a huge door wide open moment for others in the market. If that is the standard then the risk factor of high performing tests dominating the market is greatly reduced and the goalposts for the likes of Avacta are much wider. Certainly reduces my level of risk, but lets see how the next tests perform. THe other angle is if a swab is only 76% sensitive, a spit test could really be trying to break science.

Serious transfer of ownership. Where is it all going though? MMs book ready to sell back much higher or someone hoovering up?

If 76% sensitivity and 98 % sensitivity is the target I can’t see Mologic not achieving that. This is what I referred to earlier when I said a test that was meant to be an export test could end up competing with the best because of the complexities. The target product profile is 75% sensitivity so it only just scrapes through

There are plenty of reasons Abingdon would want to acquire odx. But I can’t see them having the ability to do so. There absolutely would be good reason to consolidate diagnostics companies especially inside the uk RTC. Reality is it is t straight forward as no company will want to lose control and no company is big enough to absorb another. A merger would make sense with some kind of diluted shareholding of a combined larger company. But these things are hard to negotiate and more likely bigger pockets will eventual move m&a in the diagnostics space.

Not surprising - they wouldn't be thinking about listing unless they either want to raise a large sum of money for investment or expect to make a large amount of money and want an exit strategy. It's a bullish statement for where they see business going with the antibody test
What makes you think they would be in a positi0on to takeover Omega?!

Nov capacity =200k All consumed UK RTC and Visitect Antibody & CD4
Dec capacity = 500k UK RTC and Visitect Antibody/Antigen & CD4
Jan Capacity = 500-2000k UK RTC and Visitect Antibody/Antigen & CD4
Feb Capacity = 500-2000k UK RTC and Visitect Antibody/Antigen & CD4
Mar Capacity = 500-2000k UK RTC and Visitect Antibody/Antigen & CD4
Apr Capacity = 500-2000k UK RTC and Visitect Antibody/Antigen & CD4
May and beyond Capacity = 2000-2500k UK RTC and Visitect Antibody/Antigen & CD4

Has anything changed ODX ability to consume stated capacity by month?? Yes - Vaccine creates a new market of vaccine efficacy testing and opens up immunity passports. Yes - Government announcing mass testing plans with preference for lateral flow testing

_TCO - We ae all frustrated and expected sales would be flying in by now. But with lateral flow tests it's the whole industry not ODX. This year is the year of the lab test. Next year and the years after than will be the years of the lateral flow tests.
It is easy to be frustrated with a short term view with our expectations of fast profits. IT is really heartbreaking looking at the share price and how far ODX have come to see it at this price. Is it right or wrong and does it change anything? In my opinion the sales potential of ODX only increases every month. We may not be in the high sales stage of the cycle yet but we have been through the development phase of achieving 2 highly sought after products, once Mologic test CE marked. Those test will have vast potential to unlock serious value. If the UK want them then that is a very quick simple route to market. By ODX also have global reach to existing distribution networks.

So in summary, yes it is frustrating we all want to see approved tests now, capacity at 2m now, material sales contracts now. But at the end of the day, ODX have laid in front of us a world class business plan with substantial growth potential and they are still on track to deliver exactly what they have promised in recent presentations. The reason sales have not had traction yet is because it is such an early stage. The lateral flow market has hardly got off the ground so it is not an over populated market we are trying to deliver products into. It is a market that in the UK is waiting for the right products at the right time to fit government policy. One product is being controlled by that policy and it is possible the other is too. So you can't judge the success of our products yet as they are not widely available for purchase. But we can assume that in a global pandemic where there is a vast lack of appropriate tests, with 2 products that fit the bill, that we should have no problems achieving sales at our capacity level, which is really very tiny in the grand scheme of things, but very lucrative to us. This will be turned into hard cash over the coming years, and the market cannot argue with hard cash. IMO from my readings, testing will be with us up to 2025 and beyond.

Current production 200k going to 500k next month.

With plans to increase further do you think they are all sat around at the lab waiting for RNS announcements to tell them to make tests? I think not. The uplift in Dec is related to timing of equipment arriving and expectation of demand. So they clearly expect key events to trigger further demand between now and end of Dec.

The SP quite simply is ridiculous. It is clear testing is still as if not more important than a vaccine. There is more unknown about this vaccine than there is about natural immunity

The point is mologic test has been used in live trials which is likely part of the validation process. So Mologic test could be CE marked today and therefore validated. It all comes down to how well Mologic test performs versus the other available tests.

100% it isn't make or break. If Mologic is validated by the UK government, it confirms the commerciality of the test so it would give us a huge lift as it takes away the failure risk. If it isn't one of the tests, it can still be CE marked and commercialised. As soon as we know Mologic have CE marked it then we are up and running.

Here are the facts:

UK RTC is CE marked for professional use with performance criteria validated
Self use study has been carried out at around 7th Sep
Prelim report published 2 Oct confirming performance
MHRA is just paper pushing to get final approval, (most likely held back strategically - not fact but reasonable assumption)
It is the only antibody test applied for MHRA self test approval
It is the best performing covid lateral flow test on the globe

Mologic expected to CE mark their test end of Oct, with ODX expecting tech transfer by end of Nov.
One of the few known saliva lateral flow tests which is the ideal target product profile
They also have an alternate swab test
Gates have backed mologic with a recent $20m plus grant
The test has been used in live trials including Heathrow, Nottingham NHS drive through and other health settings
LTSM have been working with Mologic since April on testing solutions and have been validating their antigen test in live trials, in association with Pfizer funding with vaccine studies
Mologic are run by one of the investors of the lateral flow test
Their brief was to design a cheap test that could be rolled out to lower income countries. It was expected quality may be compromised (but with the challenges of a lateral flow antigen test it may be that it is comparable to the best test in the market - speculating)

From everything we may have read about the lateral flow devices that are coming to the top of the tree, these two have to be in the mix.

Sir Jon Bell said 6 of 50 lateral flow test validation published today. No such mention of a time or meeting. He did not specify between antigen or antibody. He did not promise a 9.15am unveiling meeting. I'd suggest it will be published on the gov website with any public announcements simultaneously issued.

I sense some frustration in the q&a at the stupidity of some of the questions where answers are clearly already easily found with minimal research.

Pfizer CEO if he’s got any sense will pile that $5m into diagnostics stocks after prematurely and unnecessarily causing them all to drop 30%!!!!

They promised a q&a, perhaps they have been run off their feet crazy busy and it’s taken some time to complete. Can’t see it yet but last time they very kindly answered all questions honestly, with as much detail and help that they could.

Hi all. Really tough few days for Covid holders. We all feel the same pain, whichever we hold, sorry to see. But it is very much out of balance in the decline versus the risk factor a potential vaccine can bring.

There's a really interesting link below i thought you might like to see. It is from the WHO, and summarises the history of eradicating infectious diseases. It's rather grim reading from a humanity point of view but shows if you have quality tests, they will be needed for some time. It shows that covid will be around for many years to come and that this is on a scale like no other. Anyone thinking testing has only a 3 month shelf life to a vaccine is clueless. Testing has many years of shelf life. Diseases can been eradicated in localised areas with relative speed in some instances, but it is a global problem and in a travelers world knows no borders. Testing will also be required long after the disease is under control to ensure it stays that way.

https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases

I posted this on twitter earlier. I recommend everyone has a read of this. If you think covid will be extinct by Spring, or 2021, 2022, read this and think again. Remember UK is a wealthy nation. Sadly some other countries around the world will be years behind the UK and other wealthy nations.

Only 2 diseases have every been eradicated and they took years. Science has moved on, but the link below shows the scale of a challenge tackling a pandemic which is more prominent than anything we have ever seen. If you think covid tests have a 3 month shelf life due to hype over an early stage vaccine, you are very wrong. Remember ODX have to grab a fraction of a percent of the total testing market to max out capacity, and with highly sought after tests it shouldn't be a problem.

https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases

Will we be in the 6 approved tests? What are the chances of little old ODX having a test in the top 6 lateral flow tests assessed by UK Gov?? Well what do we know?

UK RTC test - Government shut up shop for procurement of antibody tests months ago. This is in the bag. It is the only test in the self test approval process for UK and the best performing lateral flow Covid test on the planet. Gov placed a token placeholder order to ensure first few weeks supply absorbed. Probably getting to the point where over 1m are available now. Perhaps tomorrows announcement has nothing to do with antibody. But it will be crucial for vaccine efficacy, assessing total herd immunity. This test will be in high demand and i reckon we could use all of the 2m capacity on this one test if it came to it.

Mologic antigen - do not underestimate these guys. Planned to be a test for low income countries. But so far nobody has come up with competition to suggest that it wont be in high demand in the UK. Mologic are experts in lateral flow. So perhaps Mologic could even be surprised themselves that they are top of the tree when it comes to an antigen offering?

I really back the guys we are working with. An under assumed CEO that has build a first class portfolio and strategy and gone about his business rather than ramping the fck out of it and delivering naff all, Mologic backed by governments, gates, aid organisations only interested in tackling health issues rather than capitalism, UK gov - love them or hate them will be first class validation, oxford uni, abingdon. Mologic tests linked with Pfizer funding.

This company are so under appreciated for what they are. I don't care what is announced tomorrow or the next day or the day after that. Omega diagnostics are very well positioned to achieve everything they have promised and more. This is a global problem that will take many years to overcome. This will propel diagnostics to the forefront of our health care system.

I suspect this vaccine announcement has more too it than what meets the eye. With it or without it ODX stand strong. Vaccine provides more antibody testing opportunity. No vaccine provides more antigen opportunity. There will be billions of tests used over the next 3 years and only need a tiny fraction of that market share.