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Sweeeeet!!! This company just deliver.

Fools intolerance self test = ££££££

No testing company is a threat to any other unless one of those companies cannot produce a test to the standard of the others. ODX capacity is lucrative to us, but only a drop in the ocean of the capacity required. ODX has the best hedge with its products and manufacturing capacity.
Avacta is a threat only to Avacta investors.

One of the mis-truths going around about AVCT is that the test will be gold standard. A gold standard test is the best possible test that is available that is considered to be the most accurate and therefore the definitive result beyond all argument. That means sensitivity and specificity have to be unrivaled by any other method. It is unlikely any lateral flow antigen test will achieve that.

This is what ODX said in the summer presentation Q&A

Q33: Given the emerging evidence around potential T-cell involvement in COVID immunity, will you be looking into development of lateral flow assays for COVID-specific T-cells? Given your Visitect knowledge/IP would this be doable?

The short answer is “no”. It would take too long to go into the exact science of this but it’s not clear yet what exactly is the T-cell response you would want to measure that relates to the clinical picture of SARS-CoV-2 infection. On top of that rapid tests would be difficult to produce because of the low concentration of the chemicals / markers produced by the T cells would mean a typical test incubation period of 12-18 hrs to allow the marker to accumulate in sufficient quantity to be measured. Our view is that you couldn’t produce a rapid test that would have a mass clinical application.

One thing you have to consider is that L&G are managing various funds. If people are withdrawing capital from the fund or if people are changing from higher risk funds to lower risk funds, they may need to liquidate positions. For example people that have pension funds invested at maybe a 70/30 split between lower risk and higher risk funds, might decide that because the main markets are so low, now is a good time to switch to 100% low risk. There are all sorts of funds with different weightings towards cash, various equities, other asset classes. If a fund has an asset class weighting based on certain equities profiles, if a stock like ODX has grown substantially against a wider market decline, then it does change the ratio within a fund. The are strict on managing this and they have to be because that's how the funds are advertised on their key fact sheet and that's why they are successful because they are disciplined. It's reasonable to assume the 5 year growth outlook for main markets would offer greater reward than under normal circumstances had this pandemic not happened. So the risk/reward play of main markets might be more favourable than AIM stocks. So with investment funds there is so much going on that might impact the decision to liquidate a position. What you have to look at is is there a business reason for them doing so? It is clear that the investment case supports substantial long term and short term growth, so clearly whatever the reason for selling out, it is not to do with the investment case.

75 to buy despite published ask at 73.5?

Greg - You're a few minutes early! I don't blame you for being keen!!

I suspect we already had the bigger wider move sell off last week. I am not convinced there's much more to go. There should be a whole load of money queueing up to get in here. All depends on how much l&g or sneller might offload.

Where would it leave ODX - it would validate the quality of the test. Other than that ODX position unchanged as they have up to 2.5m capacity in a market where anything that is made will be sold. They did talk about the possibility of sub contracting production in an earlier presentation. Let's get to 2.5m first!!!

It's also quite likely that one the Mologic test is online, there will be other manufacturers brought onboard in the UK. ODX won't be the only one. ODX 2.5m tests per week plan is still only a drop in the ocean of the national and global requirement. So ODX timeline of tech transfer commencing end of Nov and ramp of of production to 2.5m does not represent the total opportunity of the Mologic test. Mologic have a commitment to lower income countries, and they have a separate entity and manufacturing facility for that but it doesn't mean they do not also have a commitment to the UK. I think it is certainly possible that Mologic could partner with a much bigger company that have deeper pockets to enable much faster availability of the test at scale.

Investing is difficult. The market is stacked heavily against PIs. Making money from this game is one of the hardest ways to earn your crust.

ODX is a gift. This is not a difficult company to research and understand and it is not a difficult company to assess risk versus reward and calculate potential profitability. If you can't do the basic things an invstor should do and work out ODX is a hot stock, then you really shouldn't have access to a buy or sell button. Perfect market conditions, high quality product, high margin, no debt, cashed up for growth, backed by governments, world aid organisations and working with world class partners. CK gets criticized for his presentations, but the content is first class, and his understated honest approach is a gift to the risk reward play, and the bane in the life of short term traders.

This should have been trading in the 1-1.20 range looking to push 1.50 just after Boris comments Friday. The green light has been given for lateral flow tests to come to market. It may be that some other tests are out there first, but demand will be so vast that ODX will find demand to consume all of it's lateral flow capacity.

ODX will be the NCYT of the lateral flow market, only the lateral flow market is 100s of times larger than lab testing.

Also what is more telling is that in the previous presentation when CK talked about capacity increasing further, he specifically said that it was in relation to Moonshot.
Another thing that I picked up on from the recent Mologic slide that was doing the rounds, is Mologic are working on a swab and a saliva test. So we are not reliant on saliva being cracked its a further hedge that there are actually 2 shots at getting the antigen test right.

I do not know if Mologic will be the first test but it will be one of the early ones. What I am looking for is the performance quality of the first few. Have companies managed to get 95%+ sensitivity and above?? If so some tests will never get to market. If 85% is the best a lateral flow test can achieve then some of the other companies will be fine.

That’s a load of crap they are not further along they don’t even have a pilot batch to go into clinical validation yet. The tech transfer for BBI is very different to the tech transfer to ODX of Mologic test. Avacta test transfer is from developer to lead manufacturer and they clearly are still trying to get performance to a level to go into clinical validation. The ODX tech transfer is tech transfer of an already approved project from the developer and lead manufacturer. This is a very important point that many fail to understand and is the reason Mologic test can be available in a matter of weeks and avacta cant.

Clearly some people panicking for being stupid enough to o sell out last week.

Mologic yes is not 1 month away they expected to CE Mark by the end of Oct. It is the only lateral flow test we know for sure has been used in line trials at Heathrow, Nottingham drive through and other healthcare settings.
Whoever’s test it is I struggle to see how they can stock pile enough tests in a month to be ready for Dec.

Don’t care who’s test it is. Good news we are finally moving forward with lateral flow. They need to pull their finger out get them moving. Mologic due to ce me mark any day.

If they wanted to move MHRA approval tomorrow they would. It's clear they don't want it approved yet. They are not ready for us to have antibody test available. It will cause a political nightmare. They have clearly decided against offering immunity certificates at the current prevalence level.

Garrold - they always present interims this time of year

It's just typical that so many factors have been against us amongst the backdrop of what should be value adding progress. It may not seem that way now, but it is the biggest gift to PIs enabling many to get a decent chunk at a price that really should be well behind us.
I wonder if we get the Q&A published Monday morning? Rather have one of the expected RNS, but there might be some snippets in the q&a!

OK thanks tricky - i did re watch it this morning when i saw a suggestion of this but i got excited about a couple of things i din't hear properly first time around!!!!

I suspect we will get II interest once the Antigen test is CE marked or MHRA approval of UK RTC. I'm surprised that there hasn't been someone buying a chunk early, but i do expect that an II or 2 are keeping tabs and will fuel to a big rerate once they get confirmation of the high ticket items.