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This is ridiculous.

We have the best antibody test in the world, and it looks like we will have the first lateral flow antigen test available in the UK. Let all the smug idiots have their day regarding short term share price, we all know where it's heading.

Mologic expected to CE mark the LFT by end of Oct on 13th Oct.

Quite a neutral update. It shows that lateral flow testing is where the real opportunity is and that market is still yet to really get moving. Only think I’m disappointed with is they seem to be moving forward cautiously with capacity increase. I was hoping to see firmer plans for expansion up to 2.5m as promised. It seems this is likely going to link in with the Antigen test update

UK RTC has already passed validation and approval and proven to be gold standard.

Tomorrow will be an updated business plan. The 6 month interim results will be secondary to the forward looking and status updates on:

Elisa test approvals and sales - I think many expect that the first batch of Senegal tests are the only sales becasue we havn't had RNS on sales or contracts. I think we will be pleasantly surprised on progress of Elisa tests. I am expecting confirmation of further approvals and sales in several locations including India. We could also get an update on the plan to increase Elisa testing capacity.
UK RTC update - not sure there is too much new to be updated here as will need to come via a formal UK RTC update. We could hear about current production, is production live and how many? He could explain that the supply agreement should effectively be treated as an order of 200k tests per week from Abingdon.
Visitect Antibody update - Early indication of sales. Current production update. WHO approval update
Timelines on Antigen Elisa and LFT - must be very close now.
Capacity plan - I am half expecting CK to announce the expansion of capacity up to 2.5m tests in the update tomorrow. I feel there will be at least one big bit of news and this could be it as CK can potentially control the timing of this. It is also interesting that the timing of this is consistent with the expected CE mark of Mologic's antigen test by end of Oct, and CKs earlier comment that expansion was directly in relation to Moonshot. As a minimum we should get an update on the existing plan to go to 1m and the status of the procurement of kit.
CD4 tests - Update on orders, confirmation of existing agreements moving forward. Any progress on US?
Food tests - update on china self test approval

Trading update can offer a bit of creative licence so it will be interesting to see how transparent it is or if it is a box ticking exercise to get out of the way before further news. I personally think there is a hell of a lot going on form the day to day operations and that this could be a good opportunity to start adding the necessary colour to show that operationally the business is moving forward quickly despite the fact that it might not come across with newsflow.

Chart wise, 1265 was a target from the 100% Fib extension of the rise from around 500p and retrace back to 730p. Bounced off the 38.2% retracement this morning so just looks normal chart trading.

iPhone - how do you know how many tests a week we are currently making? I'm sure tomorrow will help clear things up, which is the point of a trading update. It sounds like we have capacity for 200k mologic and 200k UK RTC, plus we have Visitect CD4 tests on run. Equipment takes time to procure, there is more than one piece of kit required, it's all in the last presentation. They need a second site to get to 1m. It's clear they are looking at a bigger plan than what was in the fundraise prospectus. Not really much to worry about.

Declining antibodies means coronavirus is going to be around much longer, it means that people with a positive test will need repeat testing and it means more testing to monitor the efficacy of any vaccine. So if this is the case the testing opportunity is so much bigger than if it is not.

Presentation dated 13th Oct

I am surprised more isn't being made of thew Mologic slide on twitter suggesting the Antigen test is CE market in Oct. It's very bold to put a slide into the public domain saying October CE mark with only a few days left of October. Their antibody test was CE marked 2 months before we CE marked it as a vistect test, so CKs promise of the Antigen test as an xmas present fits in with them CE marking it now. As soon as Mologic CE mark, we should at least double IMO.

I am expecting Omega to wow the market tomorrow with their trading update exceeding expectations of what has already been achieved, updates on upscale and products.

Quite simple:

Best portfolio of Covid products
Lateral flow testing market at very early stages, set to flourish over the next 12-36 months
Capacity is the limiting factor. We will sell what we make. Substantial rerate based on current plan
Capacity growing into Dec/Jan and set to continue to grow. More substantial rerate based on increased plan

Simple cash cow products. High margin, high volume, quick turnover. Each month from now on in cash in the bank will grow substantially.

ODX is the NCYT of the lateral flow testing market.

Multiple returns coming for investors.

Or we get info on Elisa sales that have quietly gone on in the background that exceeds expectations. Or we get info that Visitect lateral flow orders have maxed out the next however many weeks capacity. I'm backing CK to have something up his sleeve.

The fact that the likes of Boots are starting to get into a position to offer any kind of test is a big step forward. The lateral flow market is still in a pre market phase yet to be established. We have ideal products to penetrate the market. And a huge market it will be,much greater than what we can produce.

People saying doesn't he have a family???!! What's AS salary? Probably have to wait and see for the next set of accounts see what pay rise he's been given after the £40m raised. £282k salary and £24k cash bonus in 2019 accounts, i'm sure his family are fine.

Never usually begrudge a director taking some profit, but if this was going to do half what he claimed i would live in a field for 6 months rather than sell to buy a house now.

Pawnking - a good problem because at the top end of our planned capacity the upside is substantial from here. The plan in the prospectus said £1.9m for 500k a week in a new facility in Dundee. I am sure they could make 3 x that amount available from the resource they already have. Abingdon had a new charge registered in the summer. I am certain we could raise finance with what we have. CKs comments on further expansion plans this month were the most interesting thing i have heard here, and looking forward to seeing what these plans are and hoping it shows the right ambition.

Agree i have said before i think the best thing in national interest would be a takeover by one of the big boys to take Omegas portfolio to the masses. I would think they would have to get the Mologic Antigen tests on board first.

Regarding the debate about the £75m contract or budget or whatever..... what's the difference between NCYT contract and Abigndon contract status? Nothing by the looks of it. Both contracts for supply, that have been dressed up differently because the government want people to know they can deliver as many PCR tests as possible, but they are not ready for the public to know they have antibody tests up their sleeve.

http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W41/736296992

http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W43/737280030

Okehurst - One thought on the pricing.... at the time of the Finncap note, they would have been guessing at a selling price to the consumer, expecting there would be high competition and perhaps most sales to export low income countries. There is more evidence now of what is achievable, and these products are starting to find a price range, and currently the competition of quality tests available is nowhere near what you might have expected with several of them failing to meet standards. So it may well be that the economics are looking much better than first thought. But there are always layers between the producer and consumer eating away at profit.

Suggesting comments about £1bn monthly revenues and multi Billion pound valuations being premature seeing as there is no commercial test is hardly attacking it.

It’s the equivalent of me buying a lottery ticket for a £50m rollover and valuing my ticket at £50m the day before the draw assuming I’m going to win.

This really needs proof the test can deliver before taking about fractions of those numbers. If you are going by BAMS and Elisa as a sign of success for the lateral flow, I’d be worried.

Do me a favour if it reaches these kind of valuations make sure you go out and have the time of your lives with your profits as it will be well earned.

*clinical validation excuse the error