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They were looking at a site in Dundee

We are expecting confirmation of non gov sales in the supply agreement.
It needs to come with details of further capacity expansion IMO.
If units > 200k and price per unit is > £1.50 it should be a huge catalyst.

"Britain is now planning to buy millions of the tests for a free mass screening program that could be up and running before the end of the year"

Anyone that can't see this happening and only focused on 175k tests is blind IMO

Need to see presentation again did CK say 2.5m lateral flow of total? Wall brook comment suggests just lateral flow. Sounds good. Finncap report says they had a Dundee facility lined up

I think we have a real potential monster RNS coming. I reckon what you've seen today is a last ditch attempt to get shares. MOU ends tonight everybody knows, with a gov contract in the bag nothing stopping a formal agreement and unlikely they want MOU to expire without it.

Another terrible response from Walbrook.

I don't fully agree wit the sharebuyers numbers, but they are not baseless just lack a little in accuracy. The timelines for expansion are inline with those suggested by the company.
The point about assuming maximum capacity, well if they are already saying they are looking at increasing capacity further you would have to assume that current existing capacity is maxed out. Not going to increase further when what they have is sat idle.
Who is really interested what is in the accounts ending 31 march? Its the year after when things are fully operational that we should be forecasting.

5x is conservative. Biotech can run at up to 20 times. If your risk profile says 3x then use that for your analysis.

The other side of that is ODX are building a business that will use the new capacity long beyond covid, probably on more profitable products. I personally think this is why their capacity plan is probably a bit on the low side because they are building a capacity they can use long term and not just buying kit just for covid tests. It is also likely covid tests will be required for a number of years. The last time a virus was eradicated was smallpox and it was 2/3 years after the last case that it was declared defeated.

I personally think an 8/10 multiplier would be fair, 5 is conservative based on the unknown future. I think Fincapp actually suggest nearer 10 in their original broker note

Here's a baseline valuation i posted a while back an extract of a few scenarios based on hitting the max 2m capacity. Replace the 2m test with your own number what you think they can make per week to give your own valuation. And BTW Food and CD4 are low end figures.

2m tests per week x 52 weeks x £3 average selling price = £312m revenues per year.
Add revenues from Food Tolerance and CD4 Total Revenues of circa £350m
Average margin of circa 55% = £192.5m gross profit
Admin expenses = Assume £20m. Net profit = £172.5m
Earnings multiplier x 5 = £862.5m
Earnings multiplier x 8 = £1,380m.

Flex the working for different utilisation rates if you dont think they will max out.

2.5m tests is worth £1,077m at 5x earnings, which is the latest figure of possible capacity mentioned

Problem with the original Finncap note is it was published the day after the placing. They couldn't exactly give a share price target of £5 a share or wherever you think it should be when they had just ripped us off with a 40p raise.

TBH the use of the time period to the end of the FY 21 is also a bit pointless, seeing as there is currently only 5 months left and only 3 months left by the time the upscaled capacity comes on board. Usually use a FY + 2 to project future earnings. Don't fully agree with this view but it's a much better effort than Finncap's!

JAdam - It's just a fine example of pieces of paper lying on desks with everyone agreed on gentleman handshakes, just hold back the signature until we want people to know. I wonder how many other things there are already agreed? Probably same thing for the MHRA approval, and the real Government mass order. That's what people struggle with here, not being in the know. But it's so easy to work it out.

So MOU expires tonight.
Per last RNS ODX will make no less than 25% of total demand, which will be vast worldwide
Colin King mentioned on Monday they are working through details to further expand capacity by the end of Oct

Question is - Do Omega need to prove they can deliver 25% of global demand before the agreement is signed? 200k units out of our 1m wont do the job.
So question is, is this new plan for further capacity coming with the MOU or do we have to wait longer for this?

Yeah this is a joke really from finCapp there is plenty of information to put proper projections and price target out. Makes me think they have an agenda to keep this down.

100% this reaction does not befit the news. All people are focusing on is 175k. Its not its 25% of the best global antibody test, with a promise that they are further looking to expand capacity.
ODX has all along failed to properly value progress, mainly due to supply through the sellers. ODX are not the best at creating hype, as they are just getting on and delivering. It will catch up this is too good for it not to. It should be much closer to £2 than £1 at this stage IMHO.

I meant to say when referring to them as xmas presents.

Did you not hear how Colin King talked about the Antigen tests. As many have pointed out he hasn't got much of an excited tone, but he did when he said this and referred to increasing capacity with Moonshot.

BUPA are charging £65 for tests that are at best 93% sensitive. Just shows private health will be demanding these too.

https://www.bupa.co.uk/health/payg/covid-testing

"working together to provide capacity for delivery of more than a million tests per week"

From Abingdon update..... over 1m tests per week and we will be at least 25%. So that's at least 250k tests per week, substantially higher than the 175k in the RNS from initial order.

Sellers will get caught out. UK RTC supply agreement to follow probably tomorrow or Friday if not today. This will secure at least 200k per week of ODX capacity. That's the number we need to worry about, now much are we supplying to UK RTC. The fact CK mentioned in the presentation looking to firm up plans to expand further suggests it's likely to be more than 200k.

Remember 5 Pillars

3 Mass Antibody Testing
4 Surveillance testing
5 Mass Testing capacity

ODX at the forefront of all 3..... not even starting on Antigen tests

3 Should our clinical testing prove successful, we hope to deploy antibody testing
kits in their millions. In time, and subject to clinical advice, they could even be used
to inform the use of social distancing measures in the future

4 Robust population surveillance programmes are essential to understand the rate
of infection, and how the virus is spreading across the country

5 Well we know were are going to 2m capacity and Colin spoke of plans to extend further

This order is just for pillar 4. What about Pillar 3!!! That is still to come.

MHRA self test approval and Peer review of PHE approval to come.

Consortium agreement will come in the next few trading sessions. Demand from Non UK Gov likely to be off the chart.