Member Info for Merchantbanker

Should gap up. I’d expect odx to outperform other COVID stocks. The risk reward play should start to really enter people’s minds after yesterday and ODX should be seen as top of the tree.

You have to have antibody and antigen tests and in lateral flow format to best optimise your risk reward profile.

I feel like the government have no need to hold back antibody tests now. Even if they don’t intend on using them just yet they are already drawing out medium term plans and antibody tests can enter those plans. It would be ideal to do a nationwide screen before a vaccine is in circulation and then 6 months down the line you can measure true immunity. Immunity is vaccinate + natural immunity from last infection.

Being just a couple of weeks away from antigen test start of tech transfer, odx will be fully equipped to deliver the most in demand tests with a global reach.

I have this wild conspiracy theory that Pfizer are looking to build a diagnostics division through acquisitions as they sold theirs in 2004. What better way to get a bargain and better deal by announcing a vaccine

I reckon they could be doing £700k revs a week if using the 300k as assumed. £1.2m a week by xmas if no antigen test, more if its online.

If i had PCR only tests i would be a little worried, but would have expected lateral flow tests and vaccine will bring demand for PCR tests down in 2021 anyway.

If i had only antigen lateral flow tests, i'd be a bit cautious but still confident of a good run of 2 years sales globally

If i had only antibody lateral flow i would be confident with a vaccine opening up the chance of immunity passports and a new market in vaccine efficacy.

Having both antigen and antibody tests and a capacity that will still only be a drop in the ocean of the total global requirement even if a vaccine works to the best possible timeframes, then i am super confident.

My faith in ODX as the best hedged and risk/reward covid play has only increased after today.

Ha yeah i spotted this the other day i saw the image used elsewhere i can't remember where now, I am sure it was something to do with the liverpool trials. It is just a stock image but there are many to choose from and coincidence they have the same one as ODX.

Interesting nearly 2 weeks on from the presentation ODX have not published their Q&A yet as promised. This is a real opportunity to address any concerns. Have they held it back with news pending that might change the answers? Did they foresee this reaction to a vaccine which they knew about, chose to hold it back to help address? Keen to see this Q&A.

Vascular - yes i think we can make some reasonable assumptions. We should be making at least 200k a week UK RTC, and 100k Visitect Antigen tests.
We are not going to see contracts to account for every test, we will see it in the sales figures. The supply agreement with UK RTC should be seen as a contract for at least 200k tests a week. It appears from various distribution channels Visitect sales are underway and there is a backlog.

Lets not forget mass testing is repeat testing. Working along side a vaccine might make moonshot achievable that as time goes on the population requiring repeat testing declines.

Well LSE website is continually frustrating, even forced me to make my twitter debut. What started out as what was looking like some momentum back to £1 turned out to be a shocker. Complete nonsense of a drop. Timing of these kind of things always works against us. It is crazy to be at April share price with how far ODX have come. A vaccine was always going to come up with some positive news any day. Amazing that people don't think that is priced in but all the upside potential which is clearly still there we cant get anything priced in.

Great news that we have made steps towards a vaccine that can get us back to normal. Great for our lives. In relation to ODX, does it mean testing will be reduced to a level where we will struggle to use our capacity? Not a chance in hell. We are talking about a requirement of billions of tests over the next 2 years, even with a vaccine. ODX capacity is just a tiny % of the opportunity, but huge for us. Secondly, it is clear a vaccine is the key to unlocking the success with the antibody tests. So a vaccine brings this opportunity to the forefront. Perhaps a mass surveillance before a vaccine and the efficacy testing after. There is still a lot to be proven with this vaccine. Our tests will help to do that.

It will still take a couple of years minimum to eradicate the virus. Testing will still be ongoing and a vaccine alongside mass testing is what will get our lives back.

Does today's news harm ODX chances of selling 2m tests per week for the next 104 weeks?? No chance.

The best testing companies will now come to the forefront.

ODX hedged portfolio with antibody and antigen and lateral flow for both will reap rewards as a cash cow and as a hedge against demand for a particular test.

Having access to global markets and products that are competitive in lower income countries will be key. Don't review ODX investment case purely on the UK path out of this pandemic. Other countries will be down the pecking order and will take longer to recover. Testing of people entering the country will continue. This should move ODX head and shoulders above other covid plays IMO. Cash and profit is king, Omega are already starting to turn their products into profits. The significant progress on the Food test self test approval and CD4 tests also puts us in a good place.

Regulator - I think you are reading too much into this being a notifiable disease. Influenza is a notifiable disease but the majority of cases go unrecorded or undiagnosed. Having a mass testing system with 40% compliance in reporting results and taking action with self isolation action may control the virus 100x better than having no available home self test.

Hi Okehurst - i think the point is they are trying various types of tests to show how a nationwide version may scale up to control the virus. So i don't think it is about one test. The Pilot scheme is more about proving that testing can control and isolate the virus. Im certain there will be swab tests, saliva test, LTF tests, mobile device and mobile lab tests all contributing.

215k would be an underwhelming moonshot program.... but it just might match the weekly capacity of the UK RTC.

What is staggering about the capacity when CK presents a slide with a plan for 2m per week, we can be fairly certain that demand will be more than 2ook per week for the UK RTC test, as its the best antibody test and the number of tests needed for vaccine efficacy will be off the chart even if they do not use them for mass surveillance or immunity passports, yet CK says that 80% of capacity is for Mologic tests. It is a huge vote of confidence in the Mologic tests to only anticipate offering 20% of your capacity to the gold standard antibody test.

As i pointed out earlier in the week LTSM, Liverpool Uni Hospital have been working on a study with lateral flow tests with Mologic, funded by Pfizer since the summer. So 100% Mologic test is involved.

http://www.isrctn.com/editorial/retrieveFile/cfd8e833-e57d-4d20-89ce-4cca5bd6a111/38524
http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN89159899

Once Mologic test is CE marked, Omega have a back door entry into the two most sought after tests in the world.

Boris mentioning yesterday roll out of new types of tests after lockdown "on a scale never seen before".

Where have we heard that comment before?

"the UK-RTC is going to provide self-tests to the UK population on a scale never seen before"

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/abingdon-health-appoint-professor-mike-holmes-medical-advisor/

It's possible they could have up to 10m antibody tests ready by then so they could start to do regionalised antibody screening and a phased release from lockdown. As much as antibody testing is being talked about with a vaccine i still see a mass surveillance screen happening, and post the 2nd lockdown seems and appropriate time to take a snapshot.

Yeah they said it’s definitely not Avacta!!! ;)

Ok thanks. But even if there are other advantages, they have to match specificity in the 99.9% range though right?

Affimers were supposed to provide high specificity as a UPS. Sir Jon Bell says this isn't a problem and there are around 6 tests achieving 99.9% specificity. The whole business model as AS sold it relies on Affimers offering a USP and achieving specificity levels that antibody reagents couldn't. Why would the industry adopt unproven reagents when a tried and tested methods is available? AS mentioned minimum 90% sensitivity, 95% specificity. That's clearly well below what Jon Bell is in possession of. I actually thought Avcta may have a good chance if other tests are lacklustre, but it looks like it will soon become clear that the standard is high and that proven methods will deliver.

Triphop - this conversation started about covid tests with IP. IP is only of value if you have something unique that others want and cannot produce an alternate. The AVCT business model as AS presented it, relied on Affimers offering something that other reagents couldn't. I believe that will soon be proven not to be the case when other tests start hitting the market and publishing performance data. Sir Jon Bell says 6 tests specificity 99.7% above, so the claim affimers offer greater specificity is invalid. Affimers are an unknown quantity in the medical world, so if more traditional reagents can achieve the same or better results, the industry is not going to adopt something that is unknown when they have a proven alternative. The argument all along was that covid will show the true value of affimers, so i think it is looking likely that they are not going to achieve that. So if they cannot pull something off with covid, what makes you think anything else they are working on has value? What was that IP worth before covid? If avacta fail in the covid test you cannot think for a second IP is going to support this valuation.

When i say the money is in manufacturing, firstly manufacturing something at lower margin is better than not having anything to manufacture. But what i really meant was manufacturing your own branded product as selling into distribution channels, rather than manufacturing for someone else. But your point supports the debate, why would odx manufacture another providers test instead of their own?? If avacta do have a test they have at least one extra mouth to feed. Yes you can replicate tech transfer all over the world, but your case is based on avacta having something superior to others as you can see other tests are coming forward now. You've been sold a dream at avacta that your test is going to be better than anyone else's and everyone in the industry wants to get their hands on it, your going to make 120m a month and sell them at £20 a go for £15 profit. It isn't going to happen. Abingdon and BBI had nothing to lose by signing manufacturing agreements that have to be conditional on having an approved test. If it succeeds they win, if it doesn't they go find other products.