RE: Interesting link posted on Twitter5 Jan 2021 13:36
LazyP - Just looking at the reaction to your post it proves some of those points. Nobody likes to hear a negative view that might suggest they are going to lose money, it's natural. But when there is a cult like following on a company that have no substance to their height claims it is very concerning. People can make all the humorous comments they like, abuse etc.... fact is it doesn't take the doubt away. If Avacta pull something out the bag, fair play to people for following with blind faith, but it is very concerning where PIs take their confidence from. But this is far far far from a sure bet, and there is a lot more to be sceptical about than positive about.
Even if a test doesn make it, the commercials are nowhere near what people have come to expect. People expecting £100s of millions of tests based on AS comments at £20 or something a test. It's clear that the price point needs to be nearer £5 for starters, and with another company making the tests that's an extra mouth to feed so Avacta margin on a £5 test will be much smaller than a company making their own branded test. You can say the volume will make up for it, but even with BBI, Abingdon, ODX the best case with their other products they may get a couple of million tests..... rolling it out globally, well all other test manufacturers are already struggling with manufacturing capacity and the competition to consume this is high. If Avacta were serious about their test they should have invested in their own capacity, brought in experienced team. But the simple fact is avacta have nothing to bring to the party other than the reagent, and they are expecting other companies to do all the work with their expertise to develop a test that they can take all the credit for. I mean if you made new super car batteries would you go to Tesla and ask them to make you a car? No, if the battery was better than theirs they would ask to use your batteries, they wouldn't build you a car and give you all the commercial rights to the car. The picture that gets painted of this company is a long way from where i perceive the reality to be, and only a validated test with confirmed high volume numbers and confirmed margins will change it. AS has been talking about billion £ markets for years like he owns them, but you have to validate something to offer to that market before you can claim a piece. Once we see that happen, if it ever does, i'll revisit my opinion but this perspective of superiority over other tests is highly unlikely. Avacta were reliant on outperforming other tests in specificity and sensitivity being ok and acceptable at a modest level. A lot is still to be proven on sensitivity, but it is clear other companies are already achieving 100% or near specificity, so avacta has no advantage like AS has been so vocal about claiming.
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