Member Info for MCB55

Aduk,
Not convinced that much, if any, mention of the sp will be made on 19th! However they must mention the PoO now and forecast as a risk factor for future earnings and plans!

Daltry,
I can only sympathise as I am in the same position, down a mega amount! Although I am my own keeper, my coffers are now empty......so no averaging down for me either!

Daltry,
Although it would be good if Hur has hedged some of their production, however I doubt that they have as the EPS is a test bed with no predictable (with confidence) level of future production. Now that they are passed the test phase and onto a stable 20kbd production, then quite possible, but too late now, unless they did so end January (doubt that too as Hur is more a technical than financial company!)

Good, what date do they expire?

Yes this is a general mark down across all shares, nothing to do with buy/sell pressure here!

Very good update from NT. US contract sign imminent should provide a boost to sp, as will seed sales update.
However biggest re-rate will be in a few months time when real revenue figures can be quoted.

Totally agree!

JA,
Correct the sp ca 23p is about right for the EPS alone with zippo for the 2C reserves!

Cairn have 590m shares in issue.
Hurricane have 2000m in issue.

"No doubts this SP will bounce back. Just when?"

It will bounce (a bit) on next tranche of good news in next few weeks, however any exuberance will be somewhat muted because of the market malaise. However there is a fair chance that it could buck the market and then everybody drives it up like mad!

Great, when is warrant expiry date?

Oops forget the first bit, just see the last paragraph!

Edison Note Jan 2020:
"Exhibit 4: Edison breakdown of Hurricane NAV



Recoverable reserves

Asset
Country
Diluted WI
CCoS
Gross
Net
NPV/boe
Net risked value
Net risked value per share

%
%

The Edison Hurricane drilling update re valuation dated Jan 2020 uses an NPV of $22/bbl for a 10 year EPS, albeit based on a poo of $67 for 2020 and $70 longer term........so $15/bbl not so far out depending on your poo projections!?
They use 2P of 66mboe for 10 year life, but that doesn't include uptime of 100% (downtime made up by well productivity).

Well I use a value of $15/bbl for proven oil in the ground (2P) as a rule of thumb! Do the maths.

Looking at the 3Q19 Corp Presentation it shows that Hur might well extend AM contract to 10yrs this half year(page19)! So that with that plus 20k/d (downtime made up by well productivity) gives 2P reserve upgrade from 37mboe to 70mboe, equating to an sp of 41p......if confirmed at CMD should result in re rate!? All without Lincoln tieback or gas export this year!!

Sorry can't pin down the 3 year flare consent for you....must have picked it up from another BB, but sounds about right!
The cost of a WOSP tie in, I am guessing at ca $150m, but feel sure there must be some detail in the last Corporate Presentation.
I don't think Hur can consider a FFD phase 1 til they have drilled a couple more Lancaster wells and got a finance plan worked out.......phase 1 would just be another FPSO for Hur unless they get a farm in, because Hur cannot afford a big bang approach......hence the need for a farm in, but also to continue in the mean time with a credible plan on a go it alone basis! A stand alone credible plan is required to not only satisfy the OGA, but also the market (predators!).

The trouble is that Hur is not yet seen as an oil production company valued on a prospective P/E ratio, more like an exploration company based on 2P reserves, which are only currently 37Mboe, and zero for the 2C reserves.......hence current sp.......37mboe at say $15/bbl equates to about 21p!

"On flaring- I see this is a limiting factor but is it so expensive to collect and sell rather than burning it all? "
It is the hands of the OGA not Hur! It is all to do with being a responsible operator. The OGA are lenient up to a point to allow the early years of development/an EPS to flare quite a bit, but there has to be a credible plan to reduce this in the longer term, hence the need for gas export/WOSP tie in.

Jacks13 on the other BB has set out quite a technical case (which I cannot comment on, but accept) that the flaring consent may allow for up to 30kb/d, based on quite a few parameters, but a low GOR would help a lot. The question is will the OGA just let Hur go with the current flaring consent or try to constrain them!? Hopefully they will just let it continue as is for 3 years, in which case the AM production could exceed 20kb/d (a major plus) and may even allow a third lancaster tie in prior to the WOSP tie in ( a major major plus!).
All will come clear (ish) at the CMD, IF the OGA have agreed to continue with the current Flaring consent by that time. The wells productivity and flaring constraints will be clearer at the CMD I feel sure!

The flaring consent is set by the OGA, not sure exactly what the current application/approved rate is ( thought to be ca 20kb/d) and also I believe it is only for 3 years at present. Hur can apply for a higher consent and a longer time, whether the OGA will agree I am not sure., but I doubt they will be given much leeway! So Hur have to either apply for more flaring/extension or they have to commit to gas export/WOSP tie in. The OGA will most likely force them to tie in to WOSP within 3 years though, as it is technically feasible/in the plan and only costs money (with or without Spirit) which Hur have. It will be all part of the OGA holding Hur's feet to the fire and making them adhere to a credible plan/way forward and honouring their licence commitments! In the current climate of limiting emissions the OGA is unlikely to bend! IMHO
Hur can easily extend the AM contract to 10 years and thus book an additional 67% 2P reserves at the stroke of a pen, but the question is when would it be best to do that, now or closer to 6 years? Now would bolster the sp, so maybe. However later is more likely as it keeps more options open.