Member Info for MCB55

"Hurricane having the cash for current operations, a strong supply and stream of production income and manageable future debt liabilities."

Not quite so convinced because of the need to demonstrate to the OGA and the market that they can credibly develop the field and meet Licence commitments! Hur desperately need a farm in partner to share the capital burden through to FFD, they cannot do this by themselves with the current production and poo. They could have managed a phased field development using multi FPSO's as per the original plan at last years CMD, but this is now delayed by at least a year and may well not be achievable without a partner!?

Aduk,
When talking about BHP, I am really mean bottom hole flowing pressure not static pressure!
The BHFP for natural flow would have to be more than that with ESP's by the amount to lift the fluids to surface, that is head plus friction.

BHP " should be higher than the pressure for natural flow ", actually I think lower, thus providing a "suck" along the well bore!?

Aduk,
I think with ESP's that there is a chance of reducing the water cut and increasing the contribution of oil from further fractures along the horizontal!? Not totally convinced, but here goes my prognosis/thoughts:-
Production with ESP's is less driven by the reservoir pressure (drawdown) because the head needed to drive all fluids to surface is provided by the ESP's, and therefore less "reach" of the pressure drive into the fracture. This just might mean less contribution from the nearest fracture (and hence from perched water) and more from the further away fractures, as the least resistance to flow is along the well bore, since the pump inlet pressure (or bottom hole pressure) should be higher than the pressure for natural flow !? Also once the further away fractures are cleaned up and kick started they will contribute more!? The "suck" of the ESP's maybe felt more quickly along the well bore than overidingly from the first major fracture?
As I say, I am not totally convinced of this argument, but hope there is some merit in it.
The counter argument is that the first major fracture is so large and with such a high PI/connectivity that it "overpowers" all other factors! Thus no potential contribution from further along the well bore.
I assume the ESP's are located close to the bottom of the casing.
We will find out soon I guess, after the current trials!?
Views anyone?

Does Hur bear all the cost of termination or is it shared with Spirit? Also does not force majeur apply to the covid affected period?
So wonder what the total hit is then!?

DC,
I think minimum capex is for this year, surely they will need to have a 2021 drill program to honour their licence commitments and to develop the field/increase production. The best plan is to refinance the CB's surely!?

What takeover rumours......tell me more!?

"No news is bad news usually, but we will have to see."
The corollary to that is that bad news travels fast!!

Slift,
"35p takeover is very very optimistic.
Any takeover offers is likely to be a 50% premium to current share price. Assuming 7p, that'll be 10.5p, or £186m."
The main reason i suggested say 35p for a takeover is that anything less would be rejected by the BoD and major holders and thus it would have to be a hostile bid that is attractive enough to a majority, and once a low bid is in the public domain one would hope for a bidding war that would escalate the final offer to something reasonably solid. Yes the first bid may well be just 50% over current sp, but that would not be accepted by hardly anyone except a few pi's!, and would have to be raised to get any real traction!

"A 20% downgrade as a worse case in Halifax, Lincoln and Lancaster leaves a total contingent resource estimates at 1861 MMstb. Which will definitely be a hit, but is it something that we should be concerned about? I'm not too sure as it's likely that the downgrade is much much less. "

Personally I don't see a 20% downgrade, just a view really!
The problem is that any sort of significant downgrade (say greater than 10%) will be seen by the market as a major negative, even though at the current sp there is zero value attributed to 2C reserves!!
Separately, on the potential takeover front, the issue for any prospective bidder, is that the money required to develop the assets far outweighs the likely takeover cost. Even an offer of say 35p (which just about everyone would jump at!) is only £700m, the bidder would need to invest billions more to go to FFD on both GLA and GWA.
I agree with Fred_Bloggs that quite possibly means GWA FFD is a dead duck. Maybe thats the problem with the OGA re-Lincoln, maybe they say you cannot tieback Lincoln alone without a commitment to FFD!?

I think its about time for an operational update stating at least that production stabilised at 12000 b/d and now opening up to next level!?
Also an update on drill plans for the rest of 2020......or are there none!?

Can someone decipher the latest rns for me please!?
It seems to be some sort of spread bet?

"The SP is a measure of sentiment, not of the true facts about the company's performance."
Totally agree and always overshoots in both directions!

"I think this company desperately needs another producing well on Lancaster. "
I agree and given that rig rates must be rock bottom, now is the time!? Also I would recommend re-entering well 7 and isolating the water producing zone at the heel (as Dr T has muted).
With three dry (ish) producing wells by next year then Hur would be in good shape. So start spending some money this year, even though the BoD say they will be capex cautious!!

Also rig rates must be down.....so good opportunity to go and drill another well!?

Chesh,
Thanks for that......we need some more good news, sp drifting down again!

Chesh,
You used to be wired into NT.......what about the new CEO's?
We could do with an update on business opening up in Colorado, and other states as well as obviously progress on seeds, etc?

DC,
I don’t see Kerogen doing a takeover as they are fund managers, but they may well facilitate a takeover by a major oilco! Most likely imo as it is their best exit strategy. I wouldn’t be surprised they either move Hur onto the main market and/or actively trawl the market for partners or a buy out. Dr T was too involved in day to day technical issues to do any marketing and didn’t have that skill set / interest anyway.

Longwait,
I agree any sale price ought to be closer to 70p, but only suggested 30p as someone said that was Kerogen buy in price! It depends on how desperate they are to sell and move on!?

Aduk,
Sorry to see you go! Always entertaining!
I am still here for better or worse!
Yeah Dr T was HUR and now its a different animal, but hopefully still has a future.. IMHO Kerogen are the backstabbers, forcing Dr T out and now wanting to prepare the company for a takeover (so they can have a relative quick exit at say 30+p). They are Hong Kong based and don't want to lose money (neither do I!).