Member Info for MCB55

We need an update on progress and also are the financial results due too soon!?

Bev knew she was not going to be in the job for long, because the CEO headhunters have been on the prowl ever since at least when Dr T resigned! That is why she has kept a low profile, not to muddy the waters for whoever came in next, also the new man has quite possibly in the frame for some time anyway! As a caretaker CEO she has done the bare minimum, quite rightly so too!
As I have said before, production was only down for a few days and is back up to near enough normal........as any other scenario would have to be have been rns'd!

As no rns for restart of production means there is no need as production started up at previous rates within a few days! Any much different to that would require an rns!!

Production will have restarted at much the same as before the shutdown, otherwise any significant change up or down would require an RNS!

Over On the OTC paid $0.345 that is 26.5p!

PlantedBHA,
I totally agree! The only issue is how large is the perched water dome near well7Z heel!? It could conceivably drain away somewhat in a few months and thus eventually a reducing water cut!? Also with the "suck" from the ESP it is possible that the other fractures along the horizontal might clean up and start contributing some oil??
Thats the positive case anyway!

DC,
Fair point, but I am assuming that the Technical; Review will have new data and new interpretations and a well argued case for the new conclusions, which will be hard to disagree with! The new mean OWC will be a probability with a high and low case too, and it will interesting to see the range as well, quite possibly overlapping the old range. OR it could even be that the BoD will elect to use the high case for conservative planning purposes (would this get them out of drilling the comitment wells!?)

DC,
I don't see RPS being involved in the technical review, I see their role more like an auditor, where the company does all the work and draws their own conclusions, all of which is then passed over to RPS for comment/endorsement!?

"Water will come up the fractures and each well will not produce enough to justify full field development. Every well is its own pool effectively and so you never know whether you are going to win or lose. Every well is exploration in effect. "
That assumes there is zero cross fractures and hence no feed in from further than the one fracture per well! This is highly unlikely. What we may have is one mega fracture near the heel of each well that is so well vertically connected that it overrides any or much cross feed and also doesn't allow fractures further along the 2 km horizontal to clean up and contribute to production! The chance of this being the case for every well drilled over the length and breadth of the field is pretty remote!
I still believe the best plan is to attempt to seal off the heel and allow production from further along the horizontal and also to well 8 in a totally different direction. The results from both of these would then prove or otherwise the viability of FFD. So another year of development drilling and tieback required!

Cant wait to see how things go here this year!
The sp will respond rapidly to positive progress on the roll out to retail stores. The market always looks ahead, but needs some news to base future projections on.

See the OTC sp is $0.314 with better volume (albeit still low though) that is £0.24.
So bodes well for tomorrow and beyond and the OTC now begins to leads the UK sp somewhat!

Why don’t we all email Hur investor relations dept and ask them to confirm if and when production started back up!?

sp by itself is meaningless. You have to look at the no of shares in issue and hence the cap.
CE has an mcap of £590m on 23000 bopd.
Hur has an mcap of £102m on 17000bopd.........plus risk/market sentiment against them.
So Hur could be 4 times higher if FB risk removed and Hur seen as a stable long term producer, but not there yet!!

The company taking this large position is a spread bet company, they won't be using their own funds but those of their many customers. They will ring around and find a few hundred/thousand small investors interested in a punt for 100% return in a month, and after making that will dump the lot, thats the worry anyway!!

Its good that a lot money is coming in! However now getting worried that it might be a short term spreadbet (made up of a lot of small PI's grouping for pump n dump) and thus very fickle, when they depart this will tank!
So are their bets due to chart watching/beakout analysis or do they really know some good news is coming!?

Bloobird,
"If 7z IS coning (and I don't believe it is) then it would probably only be towards the
toe which is lower than the 6 well"
Both wells are producing from the heel and not from along the full 2km horizontal or the toe. So for anything but perched water to be produced can only come from the first major fracture at the heel. This first fracture could conceivably be coning on its own if in good communication with the deep and with little or no cross fractures feeding in (which is unlikely), that is a very narrow cone up one fracture from the deep. That scenario seems highly unlikely to me, but is the only one that explains the outside chance it is aquifer water.

Stu,
You know your bonds it seems, I hope the CFO does too!?
Just in case, why not email Hur and make your case, it might just get some attention.

Stu,
"The fact that this glaringly obvious use of the uncommitted cash hasn't happened,"
First of all I was impressed with your well argued CB posting, you seem to know your financial stuff. I think that was one of Dr T's failings......not interested in the financial side except for budgets to do work!
Anyway I agree that BoD / CFO ought to be at least thinking along your lines, however the issue is really what spare cash will they have once they have paid for the forward work program (not yet defined).
At present there are too many unknowns, mainly the forward work program, the long term production performance and the long term poo. Once those are agreed then the cash flow forecast can be made and free cash calculated.
I like the idea off buying cheap bonds in the open market and maybe even consider a bank loan in addition to free cash to do so since as you say the benefit is huge, buying at a 50% discount.

The live mid market sp is 14.25.

BB,
"lower OWC model is the only way they can negate this requirement?"
I think that maybe possible! No further non producing commitment wells would be a good outcome, even though at the cost of a reserves reduction. The reserves would still be huge, and they are currently of nil value in the sp anyway! As long as there is no practical impact on the longevity of the wells!?