Member Info for MCB55

DC,
I agree there are a lot of newbies out for a quick buck, witness some of their inane posts last few weeks. I don’t think they are in large numbers and are not a major influence, although an irritation, they will cause bumps in the road as sp recovers though! They are keyboard warriors with now too much time on their hands!

DC,
I agree up to a point. The reason II’s sell at low sp/a loss can be for many reasons, but I would suggest that they are mainly rebalancing risk in their portfolio and looking at other opportunities in the market as well as creating some cash to cover their overheads in these difficult times. Doesn’t mean they don’t believe in the long term success of Hur; just short term needs and opportunities prevail!

"20 to22p would be a knockout blow. We'd all be ex-shareholders with the majority (including myself) taking a haircut."
Any "lowball offer" at this level would be rejected by the BoD, for it to carry any weight it would have to then be a hostile bid, where the bidder solicits support direct from the shareholders, if they get a majority in favour then they can force an EGM and a vote. This is not going to happen at less than 50p in my opinion, even though many PI's would be seduced for less, the II's would not and so I don't see a majority materialising! Such a low offer would be public and hence would attract other bidders to offer and therefore a bidding war would break out (at such low offer levels) raising the offer price to something reasonable, such as nearer 50+p.

They can't be quoted on 2 exchanges to be IHT free! So if n when quoted in US then no!

I think its just a lot of idle hands at home with sfa to do and a few quid to gamble and so come out to play mischief!

"I think it's $17 without bonds or $27 with bonds (could be $26)"

$17 is opex for the AM alone.
$26 is opex plus overheads (head office, admin, etc)
The bonds will have to be paid out of cash/profits or more likely refinanced closer to the time!

Amazing top of the leader board!
Let’s hope it holds and builds from here.

I agree with you, put simply the delays agreed by the OGA are good:
1) It defers capex, which helps a fledgling oil company in times of low poo.
2) It allows current cash to be used for more productive activities, tieback and/or well 8.
2) It allows time for the development of options to be agreed. It will not only take Hur and Hur/Spirit sometime to agree what next, but also to get it agreed with OGA and order up long lead items/vessels!
They need a new plan pretty quick at least for 2020 and then for 2021, IMHO

I think it is just a matter of mobilising a couple of specialist ESP technicians (when covid restrictions are lifted) to function test the as installed control loops and then start up the ESP's, a week or so's work IMHO!
Maybe Dr T wants to see the max stable flow without ESP's first, which I am sure they are currently doing.

"These shares were 64.5p on the eve of First Oil, when HUR had no income, hadn't yet even discovered oil at LC, and wasn't yet producing oil from even one well."

It was a case of irrational exuberance and also buy the story sell the fact and herd instinct unfortunately! Shares are rarely valued on fact , its all to do with emotion......everything from "its a gusher" to "its a dud"!
Ive got burnt by that and was fully expecting £1+ by now

So the AGM is going to tell us nothing new, just a rubber stamp of last years accounts and agreement on normal resolutions then!
The only positive is that this will be the first accounts that show an income/profit and thus the foundation to move forward on. Will there be a 1 to 5 year forecast........I doubt it unfortunately.

Gaman9,
Great good to hear that, are they driven by company policy or the HSE do you know?

Good, surely Hur will now get after the ESP's commissioning as a priority then?
Even if they have to pay for tests beforehand.

I agree that re-financing the bonds has to be the right strategy, even if at a highish interest rate (which given current bank interest rates might not be that high?), and therefore release current capital and expected earnings for new wells.
However I guess that any capex plan must also now wait for well 6 max flow testing (say at least a months production) and of course the short/medium term view on poo!?

I don't know what current covid-19 restrictions offshore are, however I suspect it is "only essential operations" either imposed by Hur themselves or possibly also by the HSE. This would presumably be non core personnel demobbed and not yet able to be remobbed. However maybe an exception could be made for 2-3 ESP technicians before long, by special agreement with the HSE or at very least at the next phase of release (in a month or so?). So the ESP's could be commissioned before too long....say 2-3 mths? This may help the max production from well 6 for 2H20!?
Any current offshore types know what the current rules are?

"BOPD guidance revised from 18,000 to 17,000"

That is not the correct interpretation!
Read carefully, what Dr T means is that the previous FORWARD guidance of 18000 bopd, which equates to a FULL year guidance of 17000bopd (reduced because of the lower production due to testing in 1Q20).
Hur have NOT provided a new forward guidance production figure yet, just suspended the original one of 18000 bopd.

"(unless the appraisal well could double up as producer?)"

Can anyone advise could a semi vertical delineation well, after going to TD as required, then back up somewhat and then deviate to make a shallower horizontal producer!?

JoeSoap,
In other words quite a lengthy process if they keep to the letter in these times. The only chink is "The final determination will be made following all relevant discussion, and must be in place prior to first production." meaning some of the final determination discussions could go on until first oil!?

"Unfortunately still doesn't answer why delaying the P and A cant be agreed by the OGA until the result of the commitment Well is known. Surely the OGA can see common sense in allowing a delay ?"
I agree common sense should prevail, HOWEVER Hur/Spirit may well have to also fully commit to the tieback capex and timescale to gain OGA approval and that might be a bit of a sticking point at the current poo!

"Unfortunately HUR now could no longer join main market if it wanted to as the market cap is now too low. I think it should have been done when we were £1b but ...."
I know at least one company that is on the main market with an mcap of ca £10m and has never been more than £90m........so I am not clear what min mcap you need to achieve before you can upgrade to the main market! Awhile ago someone posted that it was £250-500m, can't find that reference right now though! Anyone more informed than I?
Also sp manipulation can occur on any market, however I would expect less so on the main market?
I would expect Hur to make statement on moving to the main market at the AGM on 3rd June, even if it is put off for a year until the market is more stable, the new CPR published and a commitment to a 10 year contract for the AM (which automatically increase 2p reserves by 66%!).