Member Info for MCB55

You misunderstand, Avacta do not need to go to Ph3 trials as they are not developing a new cancer drug, only a delivery mechanism, therefore your 97% failure rate does NOT apply, it is more like the success rate!! Also after successful Ph2 trials in humans it is straight to market, so maybe early next year!

Agree it will be a roller coaster especially as on AIM! It will take several spikes and retraces-to get to £10*, but it will and certainly after successful ph 2 trials.

I also understand that MF contributors are independent agents paid by the article, so they deliberately make it controversial and/or follow the lead given to them. They are not well researched or truly independentLy minded, just scratching around in the dirt of the internet trying to make a living!
Do NOT listen to them!!

Why is sp down from 270 to 250? Any ideas? is it end of year profit taking, no news or what?

Who best to sell to has been discussed before! To precis; is it better to go for max profit come what may or to go for enough profit and max positive PR (in your own country) including good relations with the government forever! The second option will reap the maximum long term return! IMHO

Trademarks and patents only provide the level of protection that is matched to the size of the warchest you have for litigation! Otherwise it’s first mover advantage only.

The way they read is that the first is £8bn and the second is £0-8Bn, so to me the second one is a call off/top up contract. They could all go to a consortium of suppliers and manufacturers all working together to do the best for Britain. This is bound to be launched with an almighty fanfare from No 10.....Operation Moonshot!

The sp will respond well before 2 years time, the market always looks forward!
As soon as some real sales figures/no of stores are released (probably not for 3 mths yet) THEN projections can be made and sp will respond. When the figures for 30% roll out are known then the future becomes a lot clearer and the pe would then be 50+ based on actual sales or 25+ on projected sales, plus the same for international rollouts. Just a glimpse of real progress on the ground will be enough to get things really going!!

I am not clear what manufacturing capability Avacta have available to them........can anybody guess?
However working from a different direction, the demand appears to be as follows; £8b contract at £5/test is 1.6b tests/a is 133m tests/mth.
IF Avacta can provide it all (?) then annual profit at £1/test is £1.6bn!! Where does that move the sp to then!? One years cash gives £6.4, so several years is.....?

Great find DP!
Only a contract value of £8bn! Haha
Avct should get min 25% of that don’t you think!?

Tell him to get this off the oil n gas sector listing pronto!

"Avacta are using a proven drug in Doxorubicin so that might increase the chances of success?"
This is the major point, the phase 2 trials are not testing a brand new oncology drug only a delivery and targeting mechanism, hence no need for phase 3 trials, straight to market post phase 2!. So the success percentage must be well over 50%! We are talking about the tolerability of the human body to affirmers and to the accuracy of binding to a cancer growth and delivering the targeted drug with minimal local leakage. This doesn't compare with the proving of a new a drug requiring phase 3 trials, however its not without risk though (nothing ever is!), but should be manageable.

Yes the near future sp value will not be p/e based, it will be driven by hysteria and emotion (especially on Aim!) so be prepared for a wild ride once we know value of contracts!

P/e of 1 would be for 1 years earnings, 2 for 2 years, etc. AS thinks this will be min 2 years and then maybe reducing, so say average 3, add in the ROW and you have 3-4 times those figures at least! So that means sp £30 ++. Then the cancer opportunity and more and a further ++. Just amazing .......will take awhile to get there, but 12 months will be just gobsmacking......hold on for an an amazing ride!

He invested/rescued Zoetic at 4p (now 80p!) and so he is a long term investor!

Yes and I believe its mostly to do with IG saying they now want 100% cover for their spread bets (as against 25% previously) or they will close the account within 30 days!!

mid price sp on lse is 179........whose selling??.......can only be the day traders off for a quick loss somewhere else!!

Not sure who HuffPosts sources are, but I can't imagine it is DHSC directly, no doubt some obscure non corroborated source that doesn't know his ar... from his elbow........hence the confused messaging! IMHO

Stifel's analysis is a risk based npv one and values the company as of today. The actual sp usually is forward looking to what might be in the near to medium future. There are many companies out there valued in billions with either little to no income or sky high p/e 's (like Tesla)!

I think that the sp will respond quite a bit more on the TU and any contract award, that is any solid indication of the start of real earnings and likely quantum of earnings, so that some sp projections can be made!