Member Info for MCB55

Great news, at last some action in investigating Innova, this time for asymptomatics! I think their self test days a numbered to end august! A lot happening over next 2 months!

Innova may have a free pass on the new testing protocol (which is just ridiculous, but is to save face of HMG!), HOWEVER they only have 2 months EURA extension for self testing (expires end August). I certainly hope that will not be extended further. Avacta are currently doing some sort of self test validation with Mologic, certainly hope that is concluded shortly(!?).
Also note that the new testing protocol allows for the use of frozen samples, which was thought to be an issue with Avacta!?
The self test validation (other than EURA) seems a bit vague, but agree with others that Avacta and HMG seem to be working closely, so here's hoping for some good news, but will take awhile though!

Innova may well be detecting something, but at what level of S S and Ct value, they don't know I feel sure. If Innova are say 50% successful then its a toss of a coin!

It is all to do with no clarity with what's happening with HMG negotiations, HMG strategy, etc.
Will become clear in the next month or so!

Billyboy,
Totally agree, spot on! As you say the key will be the results/trading update due late July! Historic figures (to end of year and to end of last quarter) will not be great, IMO, so it all depends on what is said in the trading update about current sales and news.

Yes this is positive! Anyone got any idea what the self test proving process involves and how long it takes, previous comments were that it was quite lengthy, but hope that it is only a month or so more as they have already started at least a month back!

I think the slide is well overdone and spread betters, margin traders, auto triggering of stop losses, etc, have all accelerated the drop in a self fulfilling way! Those types will be burnt and not be back for sometime. However in the meantime the the future is bright, albeit a bit delayed (lol), the next 3 mths will see a major change of fortunes and sp. IMHO

CaNot see Innova having EURA for self test extended forever!!

What test do they use in Wales......not convinced that Innova is proven to pick it up!

I agree everything is still nominally on track, the biggest question mark is HMG! As far as I know there is no test out there that has approval for self use except Innova (under emergency approval only til end August!). Also I understand that getting approval for home use through normal channels is fairly lengthy, but Avacta/Medusa are already part way down that road? So HMG have to approve another test for self use before the end of august or extend Innova's approval again (which I can't see them doing, but who knows!). So that is the uncertainty for me when does Avct get self test approval, it will be sooner or later, but hopefully in next couple of mths , HMG or not they will sell a lot!

AG,
My reading is that AS has 5m/mth UK manufacturing lined up already, the other 25m/mth in the UK is from HMG controlled manufacturing (as they supplied the kit!), so that is dependent on a HMG contract, however they also have potentially a further 1m/day manufacturing being lined up in Europe. So min 5m/mth, possibly 30m/mth and a further 30m/mth overseas, depending on demand, however he originally said that demand was not the problem only supply, but not quite so bullish this time!

I agree, but the market wants numbers and without those there is nothing to hang your hat on!

The sp loss today I think just shows how many STH/traders there are in this share......they see little chance of a near time mega rerate and move onto their next get rich quick target.......like a shark!
Medium (3-6 moths min) and long term holders will be well rewarded IMHO.

"Supplying governments? Not any more."
I think it is too early to say that just yet! HMG has provided a lot of kit to UK manufacturers, what just to not now use!? Also Innova EURA only extended for 2 maths. So to me it will all become clearer what HMG is really going to do in these next 2 myths!

https://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/conferences/e5898e3f08c4/bigroom

My conclusion to this is that the HMG plan is to continue with Innova for 2 mths more (as per the MHRA extension) and issue them free to the public, thereafter (sept onwards) the provision will be from the private sector (for those passing their new validation) competitively as to quality and price in a free market way. That means the best gets most of the market, however it also means no sovereign test (and no long term HMG contract)!

Although I agree with all the anger and resentment about this, my main concern is stepping on AS's toes with hobnail boots (however well intentioned), I am sure that he is well aware of what's being going on (more so than us PI's)and is finding his own way through to a better outcome for Avacta! Beware of unintended consequences! Getting HMG's back up will not necessarily help us. Let's at least wait til Monday to see what AS has to say, we might be pleasantly surprised!

Wyn,
"But on Monday it should be apparent as to what is going on. Once and for all."
I only hope you are right, but doubt it somehow, Avacta can only allude to what's going on in a vague non controversial way, unless negotiations with HMG are concluded for better or worse by Monday!

Yes that is what I expect too, but hope the extension is only a month or so while they review Innova FDA findings!

There maybe a half term progress report!?