Member Info for MCB55

Dodger,
I agree they have to determine capex.
I am sure that Hur have a 5 yr financial forecast of revenue vs capex, with various options from go it alone to a partner. Some of those cases where they share capex will allow headroom for a dividend, share buyback or bond buyback.

WW,
So if reason is financial, then it is Spirit not wanting to spend. I would have thought the tie back wouldn’t be that expensive in the scheme of things and easily paid for by the production. So Spirit are freezing things til The Centrica disposal is sorted.
In which case what about the other 2 wells to be drilled at Warwick?

I think you might be onto something there.......for Hur to say tie back is not possible, seems to me a technical block rather than a financial reason. The flow line may have had to have a bend or two in it to avoid seabed debris and then ending up too long to be viable!!??

BH,
I like all your projections and even if only part of it comes true, in maybe less than year, then this is astronomical.......I await with bated breath, as I am sure all invested do!

Aduk,
Yes all guns blazing but in a positive gung ho (but diplomatic) way I mean, not his somewhat taciturn/dismissive way of handling simple journo's as he did last time. This has to be not just super technical, as always, its obvious if you only you would really understand and read the CPR properly type of stuff.......but more I get your concern and this is why it is evidentially not right! In other words, not lose the room, take them with you to a higher place of understanding! That is get everyone onside not matter how ignorant or ill informed!

I agree 'sentiment" drives markets lower or higher and always overreact in either direction!
It will take sometime and some really good news to turn this around, we are all pinning are hopes that the catalyst will be CMD, at least the beginning of an upturn. I hope and trust that Hur will be all sweetness and light at CMD, backed with some solid news.

Mind you Charlottes Web is still on a p/e of 122 even though the sp has crashed quite a lot this last few months.............so once we make a good revenue/profit and the word gets out then the sp will fly!

Stein,
Your 11p NAV is based on $7.7/bbl for 37mboe (6 yr life), my understanding is that 2p reserves are valued at more like $15/bbl, that is 21p and Hur are likely to extend AM contract to 10 yrs this year so 2p reserves plus another 67% gives an sp of 34p, with no value attributed to anything else!!

I agree with most of that, the market is giving zero value to oil in the ground!
Hur have to put forward a 5 year plan clearly demonstrating that they credibly go it alone both operationally and financially (even though their preferred option is to partner or sell out). The market doesn't believe they can just yet. The last CMD and the Q3 presentation shows a plan, which will now be revised for the upcoming CMD. I think a financial plan has to now underpin it too!

Seems like an over reaction......what’s materially changed......only a Lincoln deferral of 5000 bbls/d for 12 mths and sentiment and an acceleration of another Lancaster producer and FID.......so all in all probably an enhancement of future cash flows!

£1+ is the target then.......not that difficult if using a p/e of 30 or more, means only £5m/a profit!

Include downtime for pigging and maintenance in the list.
Also excess capacity means that the operating efficiency can be made up to 100%.

Or a dividend? Alluded to in the last rns "... increased operating cash flow for providing returns to shareholders and/or funding future phases of development."

Yes, but volume won't come without news, NT surely will update by end Feb!?
Q4 trading update also due shortly.

"... it will not be possible to tie-back the Lincoln Crestal Well to the Aoka Mizu FPSO in 2020..."

The key point there is "in 2020"! So sometime later then, as it is a good producer.

What is the general view of why the delay? It must come out at the CMD. Could it be finance from Spirit or technical or logistics (maybe the flow line would cross where they intend to drill?)?

Wessex,
Well said......totrally agree......people & journalists skim read and come to the most extreme conclusions!

45p

Adult,
Not totally convinced that the role of GOF is just to keep the books straight, any accountant can do that. Solvency also means being aware of the share price (not daily) and how that might impact the very survival of the company! A low share price might attract a hostile bid or limit options for raising Finance to go it alone, generally it weakens the company! So the GOF must do all he can to maintain a fair value sp, whether that be by financial instruments or public statements or being clearer on forward financial guidance and plans or keeping all major shareholders on side or courting future partners, etc. I am sure the GOF must be doing a lot of these sort of things behind closed doors anyway. I am sure he is unhappy with the sp and will surely know if it is being manipulated (he should be talking to the brokers and finding out anyway) . What he can practically do, I am not sure but a dividend was hinted at. His role is the very survival of the company financially!

"If the SP has been manipulated downwards, then the next move will be manipulation upwards."
Distinctly possible IMO!

Oh dear did not appreciate that!
Hur may still privately plan for late 2020, but I guess not wise to say so at current sp!