Member Info for MCB55

DC,
I don’t expect a jump to 95p the day after CMD!.......maybe later in the year though.

Hur will open the data room most anytime even if there was only one really interested party! However in some ways you are right, a CPR is unlikely to be commissioned until after the CMD and could take ca3mths to conclude, so that’s mid year for CPR and data room then.
However the market might well react on the CMD information anyway before confirmation by way of CPR. 2P reserves cannot be booked til CPR confirmation.

I am looking forward to the CMD confirming the forecast made in the Q3 presentation that 2P reserves should be upgraded to >100mboe in H1 2020 (or latest H2 2020)!?
IF that is the case then as the current EPS at 37mboe is valued at 35p/share (with no value taken for 2C reserves), then 100mboe will be times 2.7, that is 95p/share!

When shall we get the Q4 Operational update do you think?........or is it too close to the March CMD to warrant one?
Maybe at the same time as a drill plan 2020 update?......which must be soon surely!?

Albi,
No particular inside information, just that the PBLJ is due on hire February and I am sure Hur are flat out trying to use it for Lancaster by getting OGA permissions and doing a deal with Spirit!

I think that a drill plan/operational update will be forthcoming in the next 2 weeks.

It would be good, but I think it will be when he has some solid information such as seed sales, xmas sales figures, and more distribution contracts, but hopefully in the next 2-4 weeks anyway!?

Depends on whether the water treatment plant is fully commissioned yet!

I totally agree, Hur have to have a credible 5 year plan for both OGA and the market!

"or that there is something brewing (not necessarily bad I have to say)"

I agree that summats afoot!

Whatever it is cannot be commented/rns'd on as not concluded yet!

Although Hur DO still have to continue to demonstrate to the market and the OGA that they "can go it alone".

Rev,
Being 100% in control of your own destiny may seem attractive, but might be sub optimal!
Most field developments have multiple partners, to share the cost and the risk.

Capex

Rev,
I agree.
Without doing a detailed capes vs income projection, there maybe a way through to both buyback shares at this low price to buyout bonds later AND meet the company capes plans/requirements !
THAT is to get either a bank loan or better a partner for Lancaster to get a free or nearly free carry on the drill plan!, or a bit of both!?

I don't think a knee jerk RNS to somehow arrest the sp fall would either do much good or in the style of Dr T!
However he is very much a tell as it is guy when there are facts to report and when there is news then we will have it. I fully expect a drill plan update and maybe more within 2 weeks!

Is this all driven by Bond?.........holders!?

Do you reckon that “6 to 12 mths continuous production” means from first oil or from end January when both wells hopefully are full on (20mbd) and no further off/on interference testing, etc!.
I think 6 mths from full on is required as a minimum, that is until July this year!
That should not only adequately prove the reservoir but also cash flow reliability.
The annual accounts will also then show a healthy cash flow and that can then be reliably used to state the historical p/e and also the future p/e. That combined with a move to the main market hopefully will realise rerate and a more normal p/e as an oil producer rather than just as an explorer based on 2p and 2c resources.

I am sure that both Hur and Spirit are working flat out on an early drill plan and getting approval from the OGA. nobody likes to see an idle expensive rig! Long lead items might be an issue too. A rearrangement/addition to the 2020 current drill plan to maximise PBLJ time will be a hot topic at the moment.
My money is on another drill at Lancaster.

"I won't get bluffed-out by some jokers rabbitting on about 'water coning' and stuff like that"

Totally agree "watergate" got totally out of hand!

The market always anticipates/looks forward, rarely looks back!

extrader,
I agree, the oil is sold to BP offshore as the tanker is loaded, where and when BP then sells the cargo is entirely up to them and zippo to do with Hur, and that includes any back loaded water/slops. Anyone who thinks otherwise is either deluded, a conspiracy theorist or being mischievous!