Member Info for MCB55

As Warren Buffet says "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

"There is simply no rational explanation for the current valuation."
Except that's life .......more sellers than buyers.
However I think it indicates the type of PI in this share, just in for a quick buck and then out just as fast if they can! Most haven't a clue about the oil business in general and HUR in particular. It's the herd instinct, a whiff of something and its a self fulfilling stampede!

Shutts,
You are best out of this!
Bye

rook,
"Would the OGA have allowed the well to remain unplugged for that length of time? Safety issues I would think."
No they wouldn't without a real development plan, which doesn't exist right now!

Yes indeed, but will the drill plan/location be? Possibly centred around Lincoln area inorder to develop a hub for a future Fpso OR will they continue to explore the far reaches of the Field?

We have to be a little wary of the Interims due mid December as actual sales will only be up to end 3Q, that is end Sept, and may not be stellar, but I am hoping for a forward looking statement, maybe with sales projections for next 6-12mths (NT said this needs to be done soon) and also some guidance on progress to date (albeit without hard sales figures!) regarding start of distribution contracts and of course harvesting and seeds.

Although the OGA will approve say 9-24 mths before development, they could be persuaded to extend that IF there was a serious plan in place, obviously there isn't and certainly not for a small producer!

From the OGA suspension guidelines:

"......if the OGA considers it may be appropriate to consent to an initial suspension, it will generally consent to an initial suspension period of two years, but may consent
to a shorter (or more exceptionally, a longer) period
if it considers that this is appropriate in the particular circumstances.
On a case by case basis, depending on the circumstances at that time, the OGA may consider consenting to a request to extend a currently consented suspension subject to, among other things, submission of a satisfactory detailed well abandonment strategy and plan. In such instances, the period of any such suspension will be determined by the OGA, and will generally not exceed 5 years. "

So that means you have to put a plan to develop within 2 years and HUR did not see that as credible for a small producing well.

I think that HUR's view on WW is more nuanced, they will have game played the outcome on the basis of several, for example:-

1) Outstanding say similar to Lincoln, greater than 9000bbls/d. Suspend as a future producer, albeit no FDP in place.

2) Average say 5000bbls/d Suspend for further consideration subject to FDP deliberations/next year's drill results over next 2 years.

3) Less than 2500bbls/day then P&A as unlikely to feature in any near term plans.

These will have all been discussed and assessed before hand so has to make the early decision quickly!

".... Analysts at Berenberg said that was too low to be commercially attractive....."
As explained earlier not commercially attractive "enough"......for a field the potential size of GWA.....and of course WoS.

One way of looking at WW is that although the well is P&A'd it could still have been deemed to be commercial in different circumstances. I will explain, given the extent and size of the GWA then HUR may well think that in an overall FDP this particular well would not feature as a stellar opportunity, because they fully expect to find better producing wells during next years and beyond drilling program!? IF this was a small field/company and they were desperate for any oil they can get their hands on to make a little cash flow, then things might have been different. HUR may well have a higher threshold criteria for early commerciality than many others! SO the positive is that they think that now that they have begun delineating the field and will maybe concentrate drilling more centrally towards Lincoln, within say a few kms anyway (whatever the max length of flow lines maybe?) and thus be able to develop other wells around a central FPSO close to Lincoln and with a higher potential flow rate?
Any thoughts anyone?

The market is fickle, especially on AIM, it rarely is logical....it is emotional, which is what drives the price in wild gyrations up/down and always overdoes the reaction! So the sp is pure and simple punters running scared of the big bad wolf who they cannot see, but a whiff/whisper of fear was enough to create the stampede!

No clarification needed or forthcoming in the near term, until further deliberation/analysis of the results! This is quite understandable, responsible companies deal in facts not hunches or speculation. HUR are running a drilling operation and DST and were making hourly/daily decisions as what to do next, they would never share those with the market. This gives them little or no chance/time to re-run models, do in depth analysis, consult the experts, etc. which is what they are doing now and it will take time. An update in December is actually quite quick.
They had to issue a basic rns with the nominal facts immediately at end of testing as promised, as required by AIM rules and the OGA, and with no deliberation/speculation included, no more no less!

Hur have been well over 17000 up to just recently......down to 11000 because they are testing/data gathering, one well at a time, as guided awhile ago!

I think it means that you have to P&A if you are not going to develop the well (ie. tie back to an FPSO, etc) in the near future, say 12-24mths. The well cannot be left suspended for years pending reentry and development. P&A is the safest state for it to be in.

Because they are mobile and re-anchor every 60-100 days or so! The AM is there for 10+ years!!

When would you expect such an update?
I vaguely remember NT saying in a podcast that could be early december?

I fully expect Dr T's paper to displayed on the HUR website shortly, maybe even tomorrow morning?
Most of his other papers are there in the Technical Library.

Aduk,
I am not a geologist/reservoir engineer, but to prove beyond doubt that Lincoln and WW are connected and part of one field THEN several things need to be in place, viz:-
1) There is a measurable pressure kick at Lincoln during the DST.
2) The oil API and other parameters have to be near enough identical.
3) More than two wells are needed to delineate a field, so three more next year.
That is to say that if the first two are good then that truly opens the door to reasonable speculation that GWA is one giant field, albeit not fully proven until more wells are drilled, in that two data points cannot tell the full story.

trills,
Maybe you should email NT and ask him if he is aware of the patent findings!? He is probably too busy to pick up on these things!