Member Info for MCB55

Surely that is about now?

Being a bit naive on these matters (which I think the BOD are too!) I assumed that once they had achieved a decent fall in sp the shorters would just stop, cash in and move on! As many profiteers would on the upside.
You infer that they are like attack dogs (algos continue to work till they are stopped!) and are just relentless......so what stops them then...... apart from a concerted buying spree by Pi's?
The BOD are oilmen and not market manipulators and so I don't expect any action from them on the issue.

Yes indeed, what is happening in the US?

I am expecting news of end of year trade figures and update on seeds et al in next 2 weeks at least, maybe next week!

JAdam,
So if the hedge fund bots are in charge now and will be closing and going long by CMD THEN there may well be an overreaction to the upside say towards a £1 with an equally fast short back down long way.....in other words we are in for a real roller coaster ride!

Jiffy,
Biffa reckoned that the Marshall shorts were part of a bond arbitrage and have been there awhile. Not really anything to worry about.
The interesting thing is the new arrival of 2 more, reported as of 29th jan, however the actual start may well have been a bit earlier!? One is New York based, where a notorious “dark night/batman” short trader was.
A short is betting on a lower sp, but not sure how it actually drives the sp down though! Cleverer people than me may know?

As this decline has nothing to do with Hur operations then it is financial manipulation. Either it is a distressed/fire sale of a large quantity or it is short attack (not sure how this works, but maybe the use of various finance instruments, like CFD's and options, etc). Most likely the latter as Hur has become well known as a volatile/tradeable share and thus susceptible. However as the fundamentals are good the base/bottom cannot be far off, however most PI's are probably now scared off or so deep in they can't move (me!). So where is the buying volume for the upside going to come from?

I certainly hope not, I am sure he was thinking of a friendly bid at fair value or a farm in.

My view/understanding is that Hur major shareholders and BOD would not agree to any friendly bid at less than say £1 (more like £2+). So the only way for an aggressive suitor is then to make a hostile bid (that is one NOT recommended by the BOD). They would go about doing that by writing directly to all shareholders (including PI's) to offer them X and garner their support to be voted at a EGM. A majority of shareholders in favour would pass the day.
I cannot see a hostile bid being successful at much <£1.....however I can understand a lot of PI's might agree to considerably less, but they do not make a majority, so some II's would have to agree also. Also if a cheeky bid was looking that it might be successful THEN it would be likely a counter bid would come in. That would trigger a bidding war to closer to fair value.
Remember we are not in anyway a distressed company......only the share price!
Any CEO's / Corporate raiders care to comment?

Could be he is just an attention seeking sloppy independent journo being paid by the article!?

However seriously, if there are no technical/operational reasons for the share decline, then I can only see it being driven by manipulators (not sure how, presumably just shorting) and of course capitulators exacerbating the fall. At what point does this no longer warrant them continuing.....surely about now!?

RC_2020,
The fear of aquifer breakthrough may well have spooked the market, fed by dspp et al, however it is plain wrong. The most probable (90+% ) explanation is that it is perched water, simples!

LC,
Yes and more! However quite a lot will be spent on capex and drilling.
One 100% Lancaster well, plus 50% tie of Lincoln, etc.
Not much actual free cash then, but I get your point though!

As noted on advn this could be a forced sell by Woodford/Crystal Amber!?

What maybe happening is that the 7z well is still closed in or just opened or about to be.......so there can be no further factual comment on water until it has been flowing awhile, a few weeks anyway!? So the Dec rns comment re-confidence it is perched water still stands until there is factual evidence to say otherwise!?

I agree with DC that there will be an update/plan to move to the main market at the CMD......it was muted before that the move would be 3 or 4Q this year. However they have been super busy of late with re-assessing/planning the 2020 drill plan, news of which must be very shortly I would think!

Sonofthebull,

Are these pressure gauges or flowmeters?
If pressure gauges, then the ones further along will be steady I guess and the early one(s) show a reduction due to drawdown/flow......is that correct?

How does Hur know that most/all production is from the early part of the horizontal in each well?

Aduk,
I agree with the principle of trying anything that will get the fractures further along the horizontal flowing, anything from stop start to slow and careful or intermittent full flow and throttle back, etc.
Maybe something along the lines of that or what you said/infer!

I totally agree with you!
I used to respect dopp's early posts, but not anymore. He has taken OGA figures for about 3 mths, 3 -4 data points, extrapolated them to the nth degree and drawn wild conclusions! As you say his later comments on water being back loaded to tankers, etc, are just plain bonkers! He has over analysed everything and even though he cautions that Hur might well be right he still thinks that he is closer to the truth. He should keep his wild speculations to himself rather than scare the wits of any non technical investor!
The CMD will reveal all and more I feel sure.
GLA

I can appreciate your cynicism, we are all frustrated with the sp, but this is just business as usual as per the executive share bonus scheme, timing included!

I think that Hur have to come out with an updated drill plan well before the CMD in March!