Member Info for MCB55

I was hoping an RNS update this week, unlikely now, SO must be next week surely!?

2C reserves can only move to 2P reserves WHEN a credible plan and finance is available, that is at FID/FFD phase 1!!

All future potential has been discounted to zero at present!!

The market is only valuing the early production system on the basis of 2P reserves of 37mboe on 6 year life and zippo for everything else! So if 2P reserves are valued at $15\bbl that equates to sp of 21p.
A 10 year life would be +67% = 35p
So 15p is undervaluing, but only by 30%.

WWN,
Good summary of where we are at!
You are right that Hur will have to advise new 2020 drill/work plan shortly, probably before CMD as you say. I assume that they are still getting things clear with the OGA and detailing the drill plan, as we speak, otherwise would be rns'd by now.

"The GWA Partners have concluded that it will not be possible to tie-back the Lincoln Crestal Well to the Aoka Mizu FPSO in 2020..."

Extract from Feb 6th rns, the key words are " in 2020". To me this infers that there are no technical reasons causing the delay, because it can be tied in later (say 2021). So reason for delay is either Spirit financial freeze or a logistical/timing problem with the OGA. Because the OGA want LC P&A'd and commitment wells to be drilled as a priority to satisfy licence conditions, on both GWA and GLA. Hur might be able to get OGA to agree a delay to LC P&A til later in the drill plan, by which time they might persuade them to delay another year. Hur have to plan for the worst while hoping for the best (from OGA), so they must put plans in place to P&A LC as responsible operator, whilst still negotiating. Similarly they had to release the vessels contracted for the LC tieback, as every week that goes by then cancellation costs go up and the wrong message is sent to the OGA (that we think we can persuade them not to insist on P&A .........and so we have not stood down tieback vessels and have not committed to a drill plan with P&A........so there OGA what do you think about that!.......the OGA would blow a fuse!!). IMHO

It will be good when we get some real activity/volume on OTC!
With new broker and news next week then ......!?

They woulds have to make an offer to the other shareholders they can't refuse!

RH,
You are right, not full year figures just 4Q19 revenue.

There has got to be an rns next week, end year figures plus update seeds and sales contracts, surely!?

" in the absence of any RNS I suggest that negotiations between HUR and the OGA are ongoing."

I totally agree, the issue is not concluded yet!

If I remember correctly Dr T said that the well performance was such that they could make up for most of the loss due to downtime!? So maybe 100% then, as only limited by flare consent.

aduk,

My somewhat optimistic view of the energy voice article about P&A LC is that it is not necessarily fact YET! Hur have to plan for the worst while still hoping for the best, IF the OGA discussions were done and settled then Hur would rns that fact! So my view is that discussions are ongoing and so is time, so Hur had to commit to an outline drill plan early, may change!?

DC,
Interesting read, I personally think that a lot of the fall is the a few II's ( the big ones now below reporting level, but may still be there) backed up by a few professional PI's using derivatives (as Hur has a reputation as a volatile stock) plus of course the panicking PI's. Triggered by a few poor drill results in 2019 and water rumours. There is no Muddy Waters type published report rubbishing the company, only a myriad of rumours and articles.
However, as I have said before, surely they have made their big money by now and be/have closing/closed at this level!? I would be out by now, if I had been shorting, and going long.......nobody can accurately call the bottom or the top.......so the upside potential must now surely override any further downside risk? As Burford found out there is nothing that the BOD can do except continue to show strong operational and financial performance and clarity of forward plans to be clarified at the CMD no doubt (not long now). The Spirit freeze on LC tieback is a spanner in the works, but counterbalanced with the possible Lancaster drill for a production well.

Rugby,
Yes I agree that great potential is there and that may well be what moved the shares this week. What we need now is some solid facts to back it all up now and this will take off on both sides of the big pond!

A good week for sp on no news or is it a leak plus hangers on driving the sp!?
Maybe a blockbuster rns next week then?

I assume that the LSE and OTC sp's will near enough mirror each other!?
The OTC sp is currently $0.13 which is £0.10........so a bit of disparity there for now, hope LSE sp catches up soon and more!

Feelinlucky,
Your calcs only work when the reserves are moved to 2p, that is on FID/FFD (all phases), that is a step too far financially for Hur without a partner. One can only hope a partner is found this year!
The 3Q19 Corp Presentation suggested that Hur might get prove up 1bn bbls by 2022.....this will be updated at the CMD I feel sure. So best near term (2022) you have to divide your figures by 2.36.......still ok though!

Contraception in one form or another is the key to reduce population growth!

DN,
I accept that, but LC tie in would have been a year ahead, and they could/will do both anyway!