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Will a boom in the oil price be an unexpected and undeserved saviour of this company and its CVA

CVA proposal issued

In previous years interim results were put out in late September / early October

What chance of some results this September / October ???

Don't forget that Tenet have got the company to agree to 'ring fenced' the Tenet money for the Tenet job, so whatever happens down the line the office/division executing the Tenet contract will survive, unless they have massively messed up with the pricing.

The possibility is that there isn't enough work, or money, for the other offices/divisions and they may be closed or sold off, some of PFC will, however, remain.

One can only hope that, like a phoenix, it rises from the ashes to fly again

If you believe it, the BoD are kind of projecting that the company value will, in time (I would guess 3 years), increase to the $1.5Bn to $2Bn level, which would mean, after restructuring with 21Bn shares in circulation, a share price of around 10p.

So, depending on where it drops to upon restructuring, if you are brave, it might worth a punt.

Of course if they manage to pull some rabbit out of the magic contract hat it might go higher, but the dizzying heights of £1 let alone £10 are, I fear, gone forever !

Inthe redent RNS, it is stated that new money of $38m buys 10.7% of the company after the restructuring when there will be 21Bn shares

This values the company at around $350m or £350m and a share price of about 1.4p

Can you believe it, an 8000 employee company with Billions of dollars of contacts on the books, and you will shortly be able to buy a share for a penny, well maybe two !!!

What's the longest anyone has seen this sort of malarky go on for ?

This must be a record of some sorts for a PLC company of 8,000 employees ?

Dont worry PFCvet, you will get another chance to buy at 10.5p soon enough

@TheJanbo - I would imagine that anyone with a short must be concluding;

- That the company is going to survive, so the sp is not going to zero

- That the sp is therefore not that far from the very bottom, certainly not if you opened a short at say 50p

- That you might have to wait quite some time for the action to take place

All of which means that you might think that there are better opportunities elsewhere !

The only reason I can think of for anyone to buy at the moment is that you might believe that immediatley after the dilution is announced, that the sp will dip to 4p, or so, then immediately bounce back up past its current level, and that during this period of time there will so much action going on that only the larger players will get a look in.

Therefore you might believe that your only chance to buy at somewhere near the bottom is now.

Yes, this might seem a bit mad, but it is not long ago that some on this board were saying the fair price for the share was 100p, or 10 times where it is now, so is it really that fanciful to believe that from 4p the sp might climb back to 20p or 30p reasonably quickly - that would be a possible double bag from where it sits now !

If you can deal with debt issues then I can say from personal experience that it does reinvigorate you and good things can flow from it, but you can end up leaving a bit of a car crash behind you.

Why would you by it before the debt issue is resolved, surely you would let someone else take the hit, then swoop in ?

Or am I being silly ?

Is it not likely that the next substantial piece of news that gets announced is the agreement of a debt for equity deal

In which case the share price gets trashed, but their financial woes will have been settled (for a while)

In which case many would rush to buy in at what would be perceived to be the bottom

Is that what everyone is waiting for ?

Surely, if you have a short you might as well take the money and run now.

Whatever is going to happen here isn't happening anytime soon, perhaps, if the sp gets itself above 20p the best short exit point has already passed.

@EmerraldCarrots

I believe Petrofac's accounts to be the greatest work of fiction ever written, worthy of a Nobel prize.

Any potential bidder would need the proverbial b*lls of steel

@ivorgriffiths

I think you make an excellent case for PFC being able to trade through.

If there really is $1.5Bn in receivables to be had, that with asset sales and remuneration from ongoing work could perhaps see them through a whole year of this pain of they robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I am no expert and maybe @PaulCurtis would have a view on who would actually pull the plug and choose to lose $$$Millions, whilst the possibility remains of trading through to a point where refinancing can be entertained by someone.

@ivorgriffiths - surely you wouldn't have a CVA if there was even a remote sniff of the company being able to trade through

I would suggest that the "alternative arrangement" for a Performance Guarantee is a cash retention, i.e. the company agrees to a delay in final payments, or a proportion thereof in lieu of the performance gauarantee, they don't have to use any cash that they might have, however their cashflow down the line is affected.

Another "alternative arrangement" would be for the company to negotiate a suitable reduction in the value of the contract.

Neither the client nor PFC would feel the need to divulge if thats what was done.

If they have solved the problem using their "cash" as PC suggests, then surely they would have done this months ago by simply giving the PG value to a bank so that the bank would then issue the PG - the bank would hold the cash for the duration of the PG, which is what they do when you don't have sufficient value in your business accounts to lend against.

It can be the same with advance payment guarantees, if you don't have the value in your accounts for the bank to lend against then you can always give the bank the cash to get the advance payment guarantee, which rather defeats the point of getting an advance payment.

In a way I can see this situation going on for quite some time, afterall, who can say "no more" with sufficient clout to stop it.

There is no single share holder that can or will, and all us poor PI's can only watch from the sidelines.

Bond holders, maybe they can act as a group, which may or may not be easy, I don't know, maybe someone can say ?

Banks, well they would be voting to lose a fortune, so perhaps they would accept any spin that kept it going

Customers, no new work announced so maybe that tells a story, but it doesn't stop the business

Guarantees, just because they can't get performance or advance payment gaurantees doesn't actually stop the business, especially if they are collecting payments from legacy contracts which keeps their cash flowing !

At the end of the day if they can find a way to pay the staff they absolutely have to keep and the suppliers that they absolutlely have to have deliver, then perhaps, just perhaps they can find a way out and at 12p a share it would be the investment of a lifetime !