Member Info for MattTheBrave

Smallest company in FTSE 100 has a mkt cap of c£4.5bn - Mcro less than £2bn, so quite a ways to go before that happens!

As in all stock, it's about how much you earn, and how much the market values those earnings. Any growth at all is not in the price IMV, so that's a good start. Just as importantly, the rating is also going to move up as it dawns on the market that (a) the company is not going bust, and (b) the free cash flow will pay down debt, de-risking the company and leading to further valuation multiple improvement. This then gets you into a virtuous circle of better growth leading to higher earnings and higher valuation. Plenty of risks remain, but it does feel like we're moving to new phase here.

Yielding 8.5%, 12% discount to NAV, and a very resilient portfolio, proven through its performance during a major pandemic. Still a strong buy for me.

bb - I agree - being taken out at £7 to £8 is a real risk here. Let's hope the acquisition interest comes in after we breach £10!!

Agree with all of that Jatw - but at some point, the numbers have to start talking. I bought this at £3.50 (equiv of 35p) in 2010, and whilst I've done very well, and taken some profit at higher levels, I still own a reasonable amount, but the things being said now are pretty similar to the things when I first purchased, but now it has a multi-billion dollar mkt cap. If we see £5 again, I'll be happy to let some more go.

Answer to that depends on how quickly they get bought back. Short position is around 4 times the average daily volume of the stock. If it was to be bought back over 3 months or more, then little or no effect. If they panic and try and do it in a few days, the stock will 'gap up'. In my experience, the latter is more likely to happen due to the stop losses that most HFs put in place on shorts. As they get triggered, the purchases happen indiscriminately and immediately. indeed, today's move may well have been the start of that process as we move above the recent trading range! Let's hope so, eh!

I would suggest the comparison is even more stark than you think - looks like it'll come to the market at 20x sales. IG currently on 3.5x..........The maths isn't hard, right? (well, it might be for old Fire P...;-) )

Non-core maybe, but as one of the few parts of the business actually making any money and positive cash flow, it's not obvious that this move is positive either. You cannot stay a jam -tomorrow stock forever. Eventually, you need to produce the jam, which means getting full and unqualified approval of drugs and actually selling them. Still only $60m from drugs versus $197m for 'other activities'. We've been talking about this Company for 10 years now so how much longer will the market give them?

Very good. Similar growth in the second half would yield eps of around 55p, so c30x earnings - not cheap, but not horribly expensive. I think this could go to mid 30 PE. so around £19 would seem a reasonable short term target. I think I'd let them go at that level.

I'm out at £42.85 - First time in a decade that I haven't owned any AHT. Pretty expensive plus I needed to fill my non-taxable Cap Gains amount. May reinvest back when the new ISA allocation opens on 6 April depending on price.

I sold a third at £39. I'm thinking of selling some more as well. Not a lot of room for disappointment at this level!!

Sorry - that's just spouting numbers. Perhaps you could talk about you expectations on earnings, dividends, cash flow, and ratings?

Oops: 'would' should be 'wouldn't' in second line below!

GS - Operating earnings has nothing to do with cash in the bank. The reason why eps looks good is due to 'short-term fluctuations in markets' and I really would build this into any long term forecast - can just as easily be negative as positive. On that basis, £788m is actually the correct number, and equates to a 'sustainable' eps of 30p. Now, don't get me wrong, this gives a PE of 7x, and a dividend cover of 167% which still looks great value, but it's not as good as the figures you're giving out. LGEN's effective cover (stripping out capital gain on mature savings business) is c130% so I agree it's lower, but I think 'struggling' is not an accurate description, and I believe that L&G will grow twice as quickly from here. FRankly, I think they're both pretty attractive (and Aviva for that matter!).

I have posted long and detailed views on this company including price targets, for quite a few years. Seems a waste of my time to have to repeat them to someone who is unlikely to understand them. However, if you can learn how to use this site (a Big 'if' considering your track record) then you'll find a fair few posts of mine following the results in January, based on rational thinking, (and, to be fair, 30 years of investing). How about you read those and then tell me where I've gone wrong. ....:-)

....from the genius who can't even get to grips with IG's website.......:-)

Perhaps you would like to provide your logically thought through argument as to why £12 is unobtainable?

GS - M&G adj op profit down 31% - I think that's a better reflection of hiow the underlying business is performing, and pretty slightly behind L&G.

Yep, Nuri has been banging on about Lgen vs Aviva for quite a few years now - he clearly switched into the latter some time ago and is increasingly bitter (GS figs below show why) He also clearly does not understand the relationship between book value and share price value, and that Aviva and Lgen are quite different businesses. Oh, well......

....and IG also offering more traditional broking service if required, so all bases covered.

..the stock moving back towards £9. Buy whilst stocks last.......:-)