Member Info for MattTheBrave

I would say the fall coincided with the opening of the US market (where Barclays would have little sway I would suggest) coming to amore considered view overnight having digested the numbers more fully through yesterday. It also fell steadily through the afternoon - it didn't just dump straight down. The stock is volatile and moves all over the place with little rhyme or reason. Yesterday, it touched 4% down within minutes of opening, and was 6% up 2 hours later. Not brokers, just speculators.

What I make of that is that you have confused floored with flawed? :-)
I'm also not convinced that Barclays has that much influence TBH. Rather it was a more generally considered view regarding the writedown.

Thanks Mark. So, to be clear, you believe that Barclays research is attempting to reduce the price, so that their traders/market maker can accumulate stock at lower prices? A few things:
- That is illegal
- The FCA requires detailed reporting from all banks on research and trading, and one of the main things they look for is a breach of the Chinese walls between the two operations. Traders accumulating or decumulating stock around the time of recommendation changes from research would be a red flag that would be picked up immediately.
- They would immediately have their licence revoked - can you imagine a large investment bank taking that sort of risk for chump change?
- Finally, and here's the thing most retail investors don't understand. MMs do not look to make money from prices going up or down. They are all about volume and bid-offer spreads because that's the low risk return. 99.9% of the time, MMs will be required by their employers to be neutral (neither long nor short) at the end of each day, otherwise, the bank is required to hold capital against the position. The way that banks are now regulated makes this a huge no no. So they are not allowed to take positions on anything longer than intra-day, and even then, few do.

As far as bank research goes, it' s largely garbage. That's not because it's about helping the traders - more , it's about winning and keeping happy their M&A corporate clients, and hence I never read it, or take any notice of reccos. Your appraisal on the Barclays note is correct in that they don't appear to even have any valuation analysis!

So who exactly is 'shaking the tree' Mark, and how exactly are they doing it?

These Boards do make me laugh. When a stock is rising, it's always going to the moon (£6 by the end of the week £8 by the end of the month etc etc), there's loads of backslapping and congratulating, comments about shorts being squeezed and 'the market finally getting things right'. When a stocks falling, it's attributed to a 'tree shake' and scurrilous MMs trying to 'take our shares on the cheap' (which anyone who actually knows how market making works will tell you is quite ridiculous given how conservative banks are now). I also like the way people seem to think the 'buys' and 'sells' on this Board actually means anything and get very upset when one appears much higher than the other - again a situation which is actually impossible in the real world. :-)

....horrible write-off. Given that the stock lost more than 10% at the interims with a $900m WO, it did seem a bit weird that the stock increased when they did twice that in the second half. I think today's move is a more realistic reflection of the inherent risks in this company. Now, that said, at the end of the day, I have a very strong focus on PE (cost per unit of net earnings, how much are you paying per £ of net earnings). For this the relevant figure is EPS from continuing operations which was c154, or around 110p, giving us a PE of 4.5x. Now, if you think that sales are going to flatten, and margins will hold you have an extremely cheap stock with a large amount recurring revenues. Conclusion - strong buy for the long term, but you might well get in cheaper than today's price if you wait!!

"The market is always very overvalued" says your video at c19mins - sorry, but what a ridiculous statement! And why is this made over a chart of the FTSE that only goes to 2005? All credibility gone right there! At 40x earnings and directors selling, and a 40% return in 3 months, I'm seriously thinking about taking profits here.

Yep - just a matter of time before the bondholders call time on this, bring in the receivers, and try and sell the assets for the highest price to get some of their principal back.

Interesting one - Market cap $2bn, write off $2.8bn, and there's still $3.8bn of goodwill left. Difficult for the market to jump for joy on that one! Re-starting the divvy is nice, but this is a paltry amount compared to previous levels. Operating results broadly in line. Answer - market not sure how to take it. Back to flat as i write this!

Momoni - never fear, there's plenty of numpties on this Board as well. Basically, you and your blinds are in good company....;-)

There aren't many sure things in this life, but a failing retail concern trading on 5x sales with no news other than a bunch of poorly informed amateurs buying it to (somehow?) hurt the establishment was it. The irony is that the losses made by the HF's who were short a month ago has been dwarfed by the profits of HFs shorting the stock in the last week - so essentially the opposite of what the Reddit 'geniuses' intended :-)

Wasn't me who mentioned it, but I do have some GSK - wish I didn't though - it's the same price it was 10 years ago (though admittedly it's paid a few divvys in that time)!! That takes some doing! When you compare with AZN, you have to say that GSK management has done an absolute shocking job, crowned off by their COVID vaccine being delayed by a whole year!

Not bad for a day trade! :-) wish all my decisions worked out like this! Seriously though, I won't be buying back unless it falls a good deal further than this.

Yep, I guess we're all a bit guilty on the value traps!! Just checking CENT isn't a typo......:-))

..results available.
https://investor.avantiplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Avanti-Communications-Group-LTD-Interim-Results-v1.13-03.01.21.pdf
No great reading - revenue growth of 8% is still not enough to clear losses (ebitda loss of $30m, with over $40m of debt servicing costs on top) which means the net debt pile keeps growing, and interest costs get larger. I think you need revenue growth of 30% or more before the viscous cycle gets broken, but as there satellites and technology gets older, this becomes more and more unlikely. I'm afraid none of the old minority shareholders are getting anything back from this.

No chance of this succeeding - their actions will be seen as attempting to restore an orderly market. That said, as a man who tried to short GameStop this week at $340, I am personally aggrieved with their approach!!

Hi Mark - Yes, the writedown was at the interim stage, and was over $900m. Not a cash item, but significant in the context of a company which is only valued at c$2bn. I think there was some stale bulls who were hoping the HPE acquisition might still work out, and I think this was the nail in the coffin with the management effectively admitting that they seriously overpaid. They have said this is still under review, so not beyond the realms of possibility that there's more to come. With regards to the question, actually, I've sold a bit into the strength today - I've seen before what a bit of disappointment can do to this stock. I still retain about 80% of my position though.

I seem to recall you being an avid poster on the PFE board? You do like your fallen angels don't you! ;-)

Let's wait and see what the results show before we all get too excited. Quite possible we see another significant write-down of assets, and whilst this is not a cash flow item, it certainly spooked the market last time they did it. I think the dividend policy will be key here. A return to paying would be a massive show of confidence by the current management, whilst income funds would likely pile in! We'll find out next week......

...and have now initiated a position. 7% premium to NAV for a solar energy play yielding c7% real when govt bonds yield -2% real - what's not to like!

Astonishing run despite the pandemic. I'm reducing my position today into this strength - taking about one third of my holding out. I bought most of my shares below £12, so happy to take some profit. Great company but stock price leaves no room at all for any disappointment. I'd buy them back at £30.