Member Info for MattTheBrave

Slick mongoose - Sure lower rates means lower returns, but it also measns the value of bonds held has gone up so I'm struggling to work out how this makes a difference. I've never seen changes in bond yields (which have been falling for 20 years) have such a profound effect on the P&L before.

Perhaps the bidder building his stake up to the maximum amount required before legally required to disclose?

Figs are fine down to Operating profits, but the adjustments from there down to net profit are not wholly clear to me or and were not well publicized prior to the figures. EPS down 66% does not feel great to me, and is frustrating given the excellent operating performance!

...though $2k this afternoon.....;-)

Well my long Gold position (discussed a few times on this board) has done ratherwell - in fact, it's about 10% of my entire portfolio. And, whilst I thought I might reduce it a bit at all time highs (ie now!), I'm now thinking that (a) it still remains an excellent hedge against current uncertainty, and (b) is still liable to become a home for a decent slug of all the CB liquidity flying about. So I think I'm sticking with it for a bit. What do others think?

BTW, don't agree on the individual bankruptcy pount. Given the ESMA regs, all positions are heavily collateralised, or closed, so I don't believe that's a risk at all.

Agree on the divvy. They're still payoing out 2/3 of retained earnings which is better than most. This is one stock where the markey always seems to take a dim view of any news. On 11x last years earnings, 6% yield, more grwoth to come, fantastic balance sheet, low capital intensity, global reach etc etc etc. I think it should be on a minimum PE of 15x earnings, equivalent to c£10. Accumulate here I think.

Not sure if anyone else spotted this, but looks like KPMG had to resign as auditors as Avanti couldn't afford to pay them anymore......

https://investor.avantiplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/KPMG-resignation-letter-dated-21-Feb-2020.pdf

Good question. Why is the price plunging the depths we saw end March, when everyone else seems to have recovered a fair bit? Looks too cheap at this level I think - worth a punt surely?

Good momentum here certainly, I guess at 5x sales it's starting to look a bit more fairly valued. I might reduce a bit above £4 perhaps....

My understanding is that despite many universities moving to online lectures next year, many students are still planning to reside in the cities where the uni's are so as to enjoy the full university experience (and of course, gain their own independence!). I think that capacity utilisation is going to be higher than the market thinks next year!!

I think the market is focussing on the debt level at $4bn (despite free cash flow). As promised, I bought some at 393 just now.

So, they've already told us the revenue, margin, and cash conversion rate. For me this means disapointment might come from:
- acceleration of revenue falls in H2, or
- Large write off of intangibles through the P&L (not a cash item though)
Against that, positive surprise could come from:
-H2 forecast to fall more slowly, or
- Resumption of dividend
I think the price has a lot of bad news in it already, but should it fall back towards £4, I'll be buying more tomorrow.

It trades at a premium to NAV (c6%). Ecofin was trading at a big discount, though now is trading around NAV.

Good to see that gudance is 'comfortably ahead' of market consensus. Certainly not the cheapest stock out there, but should have some good momentum from here!

I disagree - you don't have to invest in any share or indeed the stock market as a whole if you think it represents poor value relative to the fundamentals. If the environment is now worse for equities and this is not reflected in prices, there's plenty of other places you can go to preserve value, and reinvest at better levels.

....,fingers crossed. Upward move in price today makes me hopeful at least.

rylidan - So you are saying if I'd told you in December (so pre any covid worries at all) that AHT earnings over the next quarter were going to halve you would have doubled your position!!!?? So you were thinking back in December that the market was discounting something worse than that!!! How can you expect people to take you seriously with a clearly ridiculous assertion like that!

So if I'd told you in December (when the stock price was £23) that AHT Q4 earnings were going to halve, would you have sold? I'm going to say yes. Now the price is £27, but you think it's a hold? It's on 15x last years' earnings, and I wouldn't expect a lot of growth this year given how the first quarter or two might pan out.
Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not selling my entire holding here, but did just let a quarter of it go at 27.70. I'll buy it back if we go back to the low £20s.

It's an odd stock to short. The structural situation is quite positive from here now ESMA regs more than a year old, and volatility is clearly positive. Also, it is highly cash generative (leading to a c6% yield), has a leading global position, and is not unduly expensive (looking at about 12x this years' earnings). No longer the absolute bargain it was below £6 for sure, but still a very strange stock to short!