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One thing is for sure, any II / Pro investor taking shares in the current WH Ireland placing of UKOG shares is not flipping the shares for a profit at this SP. So who is selling in 20m, 30m and 34m chunks. That is too chunky for most PI's. Looking at the RNS's, I see the following holders:
(Tellurian) who sold 184.5m shares between 31st Dec and 31st March, but still had 514m at end of March.
(YA) they are no longer in play, last CLN has cleared and they are being paid off I believe. Not sure if they can sneak in one more conversion, depends if the T's and C's allow them to do that until the very moment that UKOG pay them off.
(The unknown II from 2nd December). Does anyone know who that II was that took UKOG shares at a pre-Xmas SP above a penny?
(Various small time holders, SOLO, GUN, etc) I think they are all gone. I cannot find anything about holdings in UKOG and their share was tiny by comparison. Certainly nowhere near big enough to cover the sells today or last week.
Must admit, I do not know whether the placing shares that WH Ireland are shifting are registered as trades; but I suspect that they are. Anyone able to clear that up for me?
Thorpedo, I have done a couple of hours research over a few days, but I can see that I already know more than you about Tellurian and they are selling.
As per RNS on 7th Jan: "On December 31, 2019, prior to the allotment of the second tranche of consideration shares issued by UKOG to Tellurian Investments LLC as described herein, Tellurian Investments LLC held 132,322,260 shares of UKOG representing on that date approximately 1.9% of the total shares outstanding of UKOG listed on AIM. So after the December 31, 2019 allotement, Tellurian Investments LLC held a total of 463,448,088 ordinary shares representing approximately 6.4% of the total voting rights."
As per RNS on 8th April: " On 31 March 2020, prior to allotement of the final tranche of UKOG consideration shares as described herein, Tellurian Investments LLC held 258,948,088 shares of UKOG representing at that time approximately 3.44% of the total shares outstanding of UKOG listed on AIM. After the allotment of the final tranche of UKOG consideration shares on 31 March 2020, Tellurian Investments LLC holds a total of 514,050,129 ordinary shares representing approximately 6.61% of the total shares outstanding and voting rights of UKOG."
Therefore as per the RNS, Tellurian sold 184,500,000 shares between 31st Dec and the 31st March. And based on the SP history and the number issued from the first tranche, Tellurian have been selling at a loss. Seems that they have a need for the cash and did not want to wait. Based on the SP performance, looks like they were wise to sell at a loss between Dec and March, as the YA CLN deal took the SP down quite a bit.
But, the question now is whether they have sold much between 31st March and 8th June. Thats a good 9 weeks of trading and the volumes have been decent. Will they change their selling strategy or is it a case of get rid asap.
Yes, I see that one of the 20m sells was reversed, but then a 30m sell popped up. So 3 * 20m and 1 * 30m sell in short time. 90m sold in very large chunks. Times like these I wish I still had an account with L2 access; I'll have to call a friend see if he'll screenshare and take a look at what the MM's are doing.
I've seen 4 * 20m sells in 30 minutes. They are sells based on trade price. I do not see many PI's having 80m shares to trade, so I'll put a theory out there; Tellurian are selling OR WH Ireland selling to large II. I am intrigued to see whether we get a very large buy at some point today, I dont see enough demand in the smaller numbers to support the 80m sold in 30 mins. I am hoping to see a 100m buy or maybe 2 * 50m. If I see that, then my expectation of Canaccord TR-1 later this week goes up a few more notches.
I sold at 32p. What a terrible mistake. Then spiked on ODX and AVCT. I honestly did not see Lloyds having a mini run like this. I'm not sure it can sustain it all the way past 40p. Historically I traded in the 60p to 70p range, seems an age ago. Good luck to all current holders, I'm waiting for a dip now, the mental challenge of buying in at a higher price than I sold at is too much right now. Back in a few weeks.
Agreed, cash in the bank, but it is a bit short term. I'm holding with target price of £2.50. I'm not as optimistic as I was 2 weeks ago, may have to settle for a little less. Its whether I keep this medium term or just a trade. Bit undecided on that, will reassess in the coming weeks.
Good morning all,
I started to read through some of the posts from the weekend. What a busy board.
I've not had much time over the weekend to research UKOG in considerable detail. But I have made some notes in relation to the operations at the Horse Hill site. I have noted Broadford Bridge, Horndean, Avington, Markwells Wood, etc. A few notes on them later.
Horse Hill is clearly the most significant asset that UKOG have to this date. Now I understand why there is so much focus on that site, and why the majority of conversation appears to relate to this site. Having gone through historic RNS's I see the attraction and a string of positives and on-going risk. The positives including, in no order of importance; approval from SCC for 20 years production from upto 6 wells, oil flows from the Portland over 2 years during Extended Well Testing with indications that this may be restricted in output by the OGA as production was not permitted in that time frame, oil flows from the Kimmeridge over several periods during the 2 years of testing again with OGA restrictions possibly in play, in excess of 100,000 barrels of oil to date, purchase of equipment to reduce opex charges, well documented and designed site plans (as per planning application) that provide the facilities for 20 years production, 2 wells drilled (HH1 and HH2/HH2z), HH1 dual completion that may should see a marked increase in daily output, and interventions on both HH1 and HH2z that should see marked increase in production. On the negative side; poor clarity of EWT setup and restrictions, poor clarity on HH2z and whether it is currently under EWT or awaiting interventions, poor clarity on how much of the HH2z horizontal was closed off, no detailed view of flow rates during EWT in favour of summarised highlights in RNS's.
It's not entirely unexpected for a company to limit the full unabridged set of detailed EWT and operational data in favour of summarised highlights, especially when preparing and issuing RNS's, and also when trying to keep investors attracted. I suspect that HH2z is shut-in awaiting intervention, that is speculation on my part which is based on the lack of RNS with status update in recent weeks.
UKOG are at the crossroads, how much the 2 wells at HH will produce seems to be key to the prospects of the company in the next few months. If they can deliver 800 bopd or more, backed with an updated CPR, and deliver confidence that no further interventions are required for the foreseeable, then the market will surely react positively. A positive reaction despite the Tellurian overhang, Tellurian appear to be dreadful when it comes to issuance of TR-1's.
In the near term, I look forward to a RNS this week detailing the completion of the £4.2million placing through WH Ireland, and then a TR-1 from Canaccord. As stated previously, I am not currently invested, all opinions are my own, and I will be investing a large chunk of cash should that Canaccord 10% TR-1 lan
I can tell you from experience that the overseas II will not be considering any UK requirements from a TR-1 perspective. They may have some form of local legal presence, but they will be adhering to their known processes. I truly believe that Canaccord will be declaring TR-1 on 5% changes, not on 1% changes. We will see in the coming days and weeks.
One has to remember that this II is providing funds to subscribers, they are not some local UK player like Hargreaves Lansdown operating a nominees setup. They are offering wealth management, i.e. invest x with us and we will aim to return you x + %. For Canaccord to attract and retain their customers, they will need to deliver solid returns; I recall Woodford having a rather bad experience of investors running for the hills, and then the knock on effect that it had on their business.
Canaccord cannot afford to make slip ups, their investors will have high expectations. Any and all stock picks will be scrutinised by senior management and a business case will need to be presented. These guys are no some small bit part players, they are a very serious and large organisation, and their wealth management managers will be on some serious bonuses linked to performance.
I'm not yet invested, but there are guys and gals at Canaccord that have a major % of their annual remuneration on the line. They've picked UKOG as a stock to hold. I can only assume that the business case is a strong one and that they have a positive outlook on the SP. Their business case and investment strategy will certainly have a set of scenarios mapped out, worst case, expected, best case, etc. Each of which will have a buy/sell plan. Lets see what happens, if they accumulate more, then I will be putting in a serious chunk of cash myself. These guys do research that is far beyond what I can do.
Until then, enjoy the weekend. I'll raise a glass of my favourite red to all. Catch up early next week, as I dont do weekends on chat boards.
I'm in and holding. Barclays makes up just over 3% of my portfolio at the moment and its going to remain there for the long term. Looking forward to some significant news and moves in the next couple of months.
To correct my poor typing skills in the post at 13.38:
If there is no TR-1 by the 17th June showing a reduction below 5%, then Canaccord will certainly have picked up more.
And in response to the BUY v SELL discussion. The big boys will buy over several days if necessary to keep the SP down to a level that they are happy with. I don't see a big player buying a huge chunk in one day.
Looking at the TR-1 from Canaccord, they took up 5.4151% of shares back on 1st May, which was covered in the RNS on the 5th May. With the extra 2.1 billion shares going into issue, probably around the 10th June, then the Canaccord holding will drop below 5%, meaning that they would have to issue a TR-1 to show their holding being below 5%.
I know very little about Canaccord apart from what is published on their web-site, and I've only spent 10 minutes looking at that. But they do look like a fairly serious outfit and Wealth Management is their forte.
I think they took over 5% to make a statement, I've seen big II's do this in the past to signal to the market that they are in the game. They know full well that taking less than 5% means no TR-1 which then means no signal flare.
What I am wondering now is whether this Canadian II will be flipping those shares, or taking more of the shares. Looking at the timing of the last TR-1, it fell within 3 days of the £1.275 placing that WH Ireland were assigned to manage on the 28th April. The RNS is there on the 28th April showing WH Ireland, and the TR-1 from Canaccord shows that within 3 days, they had taken up what look like 80% of the shares that WH Ireland were asked to peddle.
I think that relationship may well be used once again, with WH Ireland peddling a good % of the 2.1 billion shares to Canaccord. If there is no TR-1 by the 1th June showing a reduction below 5%, then Canaccord will certainly have picked up more. Right now, I would imagine Canaccord wanting to show further strength and show their muscle to the market, I think they may well take up a position exceeding 10%, maybe 11% to 12%. In doing so, they will be showing their continued interest in this stock, and if that happens, then I do not expect them to start selling off stock for some time, they may take up 11% to 12% to allow them to flip 1% to 2% of stock without sending out smoke signals to the market. And I really dont see them flipping stock for less than an initial 30% gain.
The above are just my opinions, but I've seen II's take this strategy with small Cap plays in the past, and its usually something that they do very well with. I'll be watching for that TR-1 as an key indicator for investing; right now I am out and giving myself more time for research.
I saw this stock as one of the biggest traded yesterday, it grabbed my attention and drew me to open an account on LSE. I've not done much research on this one yet, and will not be buying in until I have.
Just looking through the board, some interesting points raised. I look at the most recent one from Penguins, who stated "btw only 500,000 more barrels needed to make the $4 saving per barrel worthwhile". Well I have to disagree on that point Penguins. The company has raised cash and is using that to reduce their opex costs at the site. That cash was raised through a placing with institutions/pro investors, and not through PI's. This is of course leading to further shares in issue, a whopping 2.1 billion of them if all are taken up. But from a business perspective, UKOG will benefit greatly from that reduction in opex charges. The value of the stock, the MCAP, the SP, none of those have any material meaning from a business accounting perspective. The number of shares in issue and the value of them is not a primary business consideration. The fact is that UKOG will be able to register higher profits given the reduction in opex, that is a benefit to them at the cost to the shareholders. I see that the SP was around the 0.25p mark before the RNS, and now is at 0.21p, so the shareholders are looking at a paper loss of just under 20% as a result. But look at it from UKOG 's point of view, as a business they just put the wheels in motion to get rid of that CLN provider, to buy some equipment that was previously rented, and to make some funds available for the preparation of the next site. Simply put, UKOG are already reaping the rewards of the cash being raised from the placing; it is a short term paper loss to investors. The 500,000 barrels to break even is a pointless claim; UKOG are not out of pocket, only investors are looking at a paper loss. However, I will balance that paper loss with the future benefits to the shareholders of there being no CLN and the prospect of higher profits as a result of the reduction in opex.
My only concern, looking at the RNS's and the placings from 2nd Dec to now, it seems that each time they raise cash it is to invest in doing pretty much the same thing, viz, getting this HorseHill site into long term production. This latest one is slightly different though, as the cash is mostly being used to improve the financial position of the company rather than investing in putting the site into production.
Look at it whichever way you want, I need to do a lot more research, just a couple of hours in and my notes are looking for answers to a number of questions, a few warning signs (e.g. no share purchase by the board members), but also some considerable prospects of decent short to medium term returns on a small investment.
Look forward to some good jibber jabber here.
I dropped my investment in AML a couple of months ago. I really feared the worse, lucky escape you may say. But now, I can see some light at the end of the tunnel, but the worry is that it is a train rather than the prospect of daylight. I'm staying out for now, plenty of time to catch the ride on the way up if the fundamentals show it a worthwhile <1% of one's portfolio.
Hoping for a quick rebound on the SP, but this placing gives people a very quick profit, and it would be unusual for a company to push past a placing price for a good month or so after it is completed. I expect the selling pressure to be high and this will suppress the SP. That is unless they can ride the Covid-19 horse all the way to the bank.
I think it will soon Nelson. The sales performance looks good to me. I think the market knows how string the business model is. Just a couple of good sets of figures aware from a good surge.