Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
I've sold out of AVCT this morning. I am still holding ODX on the basis that the design freeze may land v soon. MerchantBanker raises a good point about the sales volumes, that is just as important key metric as the design freeze in my mind. I'm holding, but its testing my patience, I will not continue to hold without some good news v soon.
I already have steak at home, thanks. I sold out of this crock today. The surge driven by sentiment for Covid-19 stocks is over. I dont see any legs in this company in the short term. Its not going to give me a return I can get elsewhere. Good luck if you hold or buy more.
A few notes on assets:
Horse Hill : 25 years production approved by Surrey County Council and the OGA. 3,500 bopd allowance. 2 wells drilled, planning for a further 4 granted, plus an injector well to help increase the recovery rates. Sure, they may not produce 3,500 bopd, but I have high expectations of very good flow rates.
Isle of Wight : Supposedly several times larger than Horse Hill with regards to the Portland play there. There are other layers that merit evaluation.
Dunsfold : Supposedly a large Gas play with 56 bcf in the Portland. UKOG will receive approval from SCC on Monday to undertake an EWT there to assess the Portland (GAS + Oil) and Kimmeridge. This location is in the so-called sweet spot of the Weald, if so, then the maturity of the play could deliver some nice results.
A24 / Broadford Bridge / Horndean : All further assets.
Horndean already producing and giving UKOG 10% of whatever is produced (as iGas operate the site), I think it was reported at 133 bopd, with UKOG taking 13.3 bopd which equates to roughly $210k p.a.). That is a very small cherry on the top of one huge pie.
BUT, the kicker is, the sites are just that, they are sites, UKOG owns large % of the PEDL's. This allows them to develop further sites in the future. If they get the ball rolling with HorseHill, then the cash flow will fund the future development of other sites. And so, on that note. 3,500 bopd would provide gross income of $54 million per annum. You can do your own research and sums on costs and the likely P&L.
I've done some research on UJO, but until they actually deliver something, then the investment case is pretty weak. I see that they did some work at West Newton last year, but that was suspended in August 2019 and despite saying it was huge, they have yet to do anything further at the site, in fact all kit there was removed and its an empty field from what I hear. But this is about UKOG, not UJO. UKOG have some excellent assets and have been long overdue a re-rate.
But the Trolls said this would go to 0.1p and the company would shut down. Well, what a surprise, the CLN arrangement was ditched, the £2.1m placing must have been eaten up by some big boys (II's, as retail PI's couldnt subscribe) and now we have the valuation marching up. My fair value assessment is 1.9p and that is adding minimal value to the Isle of WIght, Broadford Bridge and Dunsfold assets.
This is about to go into orbit. In my opinion. 0.3p is small talk, this could hit 0.4p today alone.
MM's are all over the place.
0.25p about to go, then its 0.27p. Great start to the week, and there is a lot more to come in my honest opinion.
Could be shorters Mirasol, just not disclosed.
Could also be syndicates with large volume of spoofing.
Just because spoofing is illegal, doesn't mean that it does not happen. Plenty of stocks been manipulated like this and its still a hot topic in many Asian countries.
A number of news items are due to drop in the next few days, these include:
Surrey County Council approval of the Dunsfold site, giving UKOG the green light to setup a new site in the sweet spot of the Weald. This will be used to assess the Portland (Gas and Oil) and also the Kimmeridge. DYOR on the Dunsfold site and PEDL. iGas own the PEDL next door and have issued a CPR for gas in the Portland play; UKOG are looking at 56 bcf of gas in that alone.
Interim results due by 30th June, unless UKOG announce by way of RIS that they will make use of the optional 1 month extension to filing of half year results. The results will include an operational update, and hopefully some further details on HH1 and HH2z interventions.
£2.1m placing with WH Ireland to II's and Pro investors. They should be announcing that the placing has been completed with subscription to all newly issues shares taken. Will we then see a TR-1 from Canaccord (II Wealth Management specialist) and/or other II players?
The above is coming and coming very soon. The volumes over the last 2 weeks are off the charts for UKOG, so there is clearly huge interest. I see huge upside in the investment case.
The above is just my opinion based on research over the last 3 weeks or so.
This is the tightest spread I've seen in a small cap on AIM for a long time. It looks to me like the MM's are trying to setup a tree shake before then gap'ing up the Ask to 0.25p. This PM is going to be one hell of a watch.
Wow "alreadyinuse", you must have bought 20,900 shares or thereabouts and bought just over £1k worth at 5p. Not sure I would be bitter at such a small loss.
I would have averaged down, and bought £5k at 0.2p. You would have recovered that £1k by now.
Not advice, and yes I do hold shares in UKOG.
noalcohol = backwoodsman.
we all know it. Hate driven agenda against UKOG.
Cheers Ibug, I missed that recent update in June. So it's 30th June 2020 unless they advise otherwise, latest it can be issued is 31st July 2020.
There is no relief on timescales for issuance of half year results.
UKOG half year results must be posted by close on 30th June 2020 at the latest.
The half year results are due before the end of this month. I would expect UKOG to include an operational update together with the results. It would be unusual not to get an update. Time for the news to hit the desk, I for one am quite excited and will be picking through the details with a fine tooth comb.
Phil raises a very good point. I have seen shorting campaigns in the past where the shorter has done so through holding multiple small short positions (through different subsidiaries) below the level that needs to be reported. Just because it is not declared, does not mean that is cannot be happening. Go research it, there is a history of this in the market and it can still be exploited
Here are some extracts from the 9th March RNS with my comments directly after each extract:
"UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) is pleased to announce that the intervention to shut off significant formation water ingress into its Horse Hill-2z ("HH-2z") horizontal production well has been successful."
-MC- Good headline to start with. Notably, they had fixed the water ingress issue.
"Following the identification of the water ingress source via production logging, a rigid setting Thermatek® plug was set over a zone of open natural fractures clustered at the deepest part or "toe" of the wellbore. Initial testing of HH-2z post-Thermatek® has demonstrated a continuous flow of dry oil to surface, confirming that the plug has eliminated underlying formation water ingress into HH-2z."
-MC- Fantastic, so it was the toe end of the wellbore. But just how much of the 2500ft horizontal well was plugged off, and is that plug still holding firm?
"Dry oil flow rates during the initial 48-hour "clean-up" period to date are encouraging, with metered daily rates averaging 223 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"). However, as is to be expected in the early clean-up stage of such a horizontal wellbore, both oil and associated gas rates have been very variable. Half hourly rates have thus ranged from a high of 778 bopd to a low of around 10 bopd during intermittent short periods of "slugging" (i.e. the return of discrete pockets of gas and/or completion fluids). "
-MC- Understandable to have fluctuations in the rates, brand spanking new horizontal well with slotted liner completion. The 10 bopd figure is a concern, is there a significant gas issue?
"The water ingress problem meant that HH-2z remained shut-in for almost 3 months, with spent drilling and completion fluids within the near wellbore. Consequently, it is expected that the full clean-up process is likely to take a number of weeks of aggregate flow. As part of the clean-up process, to ensure the full remaining horizontal section contributes towards aggregate oil flow, further interventions are planned to help fine-tune and optimise flow from the well."
-MC- Understandable, but its been 14.5 weeks since the update. So news please!
"HH-2z clean-up operations are planned to continue over the coming week, after which essential maintenance and a planned upgrade of well test and production facilities will occur. These operations, designed primarily to enable simultaneous production from HH-1 and HH-2z, will require both HH-1 and HH-2z to be shut-in for a period of up to ten days."
-MC- Did the shut-in happen for just 10 days?
"Full extended well test operations with simultaneous multi-well production are planned to resume directly after the shut-in."
-MC- So has the EWT on HH2z been on-going or not? There has been no indication that it has.
I can see why it is easy to criticise the CEO, the lack of an update is disappointing.
Full update is overdue, and it should have been deliver
JustBe, I believe that most folks are using 220 barrels per tanker as a figure for calculations.
1 tanker = 220 barrels
220 barrels of Brent Crude * $42.28 (Spot price) = $9,301.60 per tanker.
I now expect Brent to rise to $65 by the end of 2020. SO you can see how important that is.
UKOG have used a few different figures for asset level OPEX costs, but I am currently using $13 per barrel to cover costs.
At current Brent prices, that gives a figure just shy of $30 profit per barrel. If Brent reaches $65, then it delivers $52 per barrel.
UKOG have permission to produce upto 3,500 bopd, but I am not expecting anything above 1,000 bopd in 2020. Some would say, that is an optimistic figure and maybe 500 bopd would be more apt, others would say 1,500 bopd is possible with the 2 wells.
We need that operational update, and we need Condition 8 of the planning application to be granted; then its Hammer Time.
There are other sites showing the trading data.
Ibug, Stick with the old out of date facts, as you wish. I respect your opinion, and I trust that you will respect mine. My opinion was one of company valuation being based on P's and C's, rather than cashflow. And based on your responses, I think that you generally agree with that position. Oilers are not cornershops.
Penguins, I do not care about OIP figures, they have some interest, but it's all about P's and C's. My figures were for the sake of example and to generate conversation. I've read the 2018 CPR, twice. Which also brings into question why someone would go with a pure cashflow calculation of company valuation when UKOG has several assets. What is your opinion on cornershop cashflow versus P's and C's? You havent said a word on the matter of which approach you see as best placed for a small cap oiler?