We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Agreed Troublesome. Boris and his team have done a sub-standard job on Covid.
I remember back in March and the first press conference. Boris clearly stated that they were not introducing any measures at that point in time as they were in the "Delay Stage". The only thing they delayed was making clear and quick decisions for the good of the nation. A rapid shutdown of all overseas travel in/out the country should have been the first policy change, they failed to do so, and they still fail to do so.
Now we have Boris considering a 1m rule instead of 2m, that is despite all the advice provided and the previous policy stance. I know it must be a very hard job being PM. But his poor leadership has cost many many lives, and impaired many businesses. A prompt shutdown with track and trace program as recommended by the WHO for dealing with major outbreaks (e.g. ebola) would have seen much fewer deaths, and I think we could have had much of society back to normal by now. NZ have shown what was possible for an island nation.
As for NCYT, I sold out in the high 300's and took a very small profit in doing so. The second wave threat is there, but there is so much competition and there is also the prospect of a vaccine as time goes by. I just dont see NCYT getting back to 350+. Good luck to you if you are holding.
BGS data shows activity from 8.37am until 8.52am (15 mins), then 9.48am until 10.16am (28 mins), then 11.47 until 11.55am (8 mins)
If this was the perf gun, then I'm unsure as to how the charges were lined up and triggered. Maybe they did 3 separate layers, were they all in the Portland? Is the timing of the BGS spikes too early in the day when compared to the videos of the activity observed at site?
One thing is for sure, those spikes on the BGS data are quite sizeable and they certainly appear to tie in with the activity at site, but questions remain. RNS is overdue in my opinion.
1970Roadster (I like cool vintage cars, wish I had one),
That MNRG RNS is referring to a privately owned O&G company in the UK. It is unfortunate that they used the term "UK Oil & Gas" as a heading in the RNS, because this has nothing to do with UKOG themselves. I've read the MNRG RNS in full, also did some research on them a few months back, they are not for me.
Ian12, what difference does it make on sellers making losses. I doubt that they are large.
e.g. the 266.5m trade late yesterday, that was just over 0.19p, are you sure that YA are not able to exercise the CLN? If they were able to convert, then they may be able to make a profit on sales at 0.19p based on the 5 day VWAP. Despite UKOG saying that they would be repaid, UKOG could not complete that without cash from the placing that was expected to complete yesterday. I suspect that placing has not yet completed, and without reading the T's and C's in detail, I do not know if WH Ireland hand-over the funds when received, or in stages, or as one lump sum.
If it was Tellurian, which I doubt, as it would be a completely different behaviour to their previous selling, then why would UKOG shareholders care? I dont think shareholders would give two hoots about Tellurian selling a huge chunk at a massive loss; in fact I think shareholders would be delighted to see Tellurian out.
If it was Canaccord, then who is buying the volume of shares at this level? Canaccord were buying only a few weeks ago. If they were selling, and selling in such huge chunks (then they would only be losing a maximum of 5%, hardly a major loss).
I will repeat again, if Canaccord are selling, then who is buying this stock? The volumes have been huge the last 5 working days, and that is significantly (6 times the 90 day average) larger than it has been, all without any real positive operational news.
News will land soon enough. I still await the 10% Canaccord TR-1. The above is just my opinion, I do not hold any UKOG stock, and will invest a large chunk if that 10% TR-1 arrives.
Thorpedo (I love that name, he was a great swimmer)
Tellurian sold 184.5m shares between 31st Dec and 31st March, but still had 514m as of 31st March. I have not seen any further holdings statements. I do think that they have been selling, but it would be guesswork on how much. With the lower volumes in the first quarter, they were shifting 60m per month. Have they ceased or continued? Have they shifted 60m / month? Have the shifted a lot more over the last week or so?
I do not know, hand on heart, I have no facts to back up my belief that they have been selling. Looking at the previous TR-1's, they have a poor track record of issuing on time.
I would love to have some answers, but we will have to wait to find out the truth.
I refer the honourable gentleman to the answer I gave a few moments ago.
You stated that an II couldn't dump shares.
Whereas I provided an opposing view, and that is that Tellurian (despite not being an II) were able to dump considerable volume of shares between Dec 31st and March 31st. That is a fact. And that was when the trading volumes were very small by comparison to the last 5 days.
And then there is Canaccord, who only just recently bought in, and yes it was at a discount, they are not dumb. But given that there have been 3 billion shares traded in less than 5 working days, they would have had ample opportunity to "dump" them. Had the volumes been low like in the first quarter of 2020, then the opportunity to "dump" would be minimal.
I think you can agree that you were not balanced in your original assessment, and maybe you can see my side of the argument. If not, then we can agree to disagree, after all, I'm not here trying to win rosettes from best groomed pony.
I need to fact check you there Penguins.
You stated "If any ii are left with significant shareholding it's because they can't not won't dump them."
Not sure of your grammar on the last 5 words, but I get what you are saying.
Do you think that an II or Pro will buy in without research, that their management will just let their analysts do whatever they like without being able to put some hard arguments in favour of buying the stock. I would not foresee Canaccord of just buying 5.41% on a whim. It will have been researched, or maybe you think that play spot the ball with with a large printed copy of AIM stocks just for the fun of it. Seriously!
Then you think they are only holding because they cannot dump them. Well, I do not class Tellurian as an II< but they were clearly dumping between 31st Dec and 31st March as per RNS showing holdings.
I do class Canaccord as an II, and given that they bought close to 80% of the last placing with a good £1m or thereabout on the table, I doubt that they have any interest in dumping them so soon. Furthermore, given that Canaccord bought in at roughly the same value as the SP is trading at over the last 5 days, then I'm sure they could have shifted a good number if they desired. Is the 3 billion shares now traded in just under 5 days? Yes it is!
What's your next point going to be? Find me an II who buys stock for fun. Also find me another stock that has seen 30% of its shares traded in less than 1 working week.
Ironhide, may I draw your attention to the RNS on the 4th June. Check the RNS (the capitals are they're work, not mine)
"IMPORTANT INFORMATION ON THE PLACING FOR INVITED PLACEES ONLY. MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC ARE NOT ELIGIBLE TO TAKE PART IN THE PLACING. THESE TERMS AND CONDITIONS SET OUT HEREIN ARE FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE DIRECTED ONLY AT: (A) PERSONS IN MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA WHO ARE QUALIFIED INVESTORS AS DEFINED IN SECTION 86(7) OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS ACT 2000 AS AMENDED, ("QUALIFIED INVESTORS") AS DEFINED IN ARTICLE 2(E) OF THE EU PROSPECTUS REGULATION (WHICH MEANS REGULATION (EU) 2017/1129) (THE "PROSPECTUS REGULATION"); AND (B) IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, QUALIFIED INVESTORS WHO ARE PERSONS WHO (I) HAVE PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE IN MATTERS RELATING TO INVESTMENTS AND ARE "INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS" FALLING WITHIN ARTICLE 19(5) OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS ACT 2000 (FINANCIAL PROMOTION) ORDER 2005 (THE "ORDER''); (II) ARE PERSONS FALLING WITHIN ARTICLE 49(2)(A) TO (D) ("HIGH NET WORTH COMPANIES, UNINCORPORATED ASSOCIATIONS, ETC") OF THE ORDER; AND (C) PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM TO WHOM IT MAY OTHERWISE BE LAWFULLY COMMUNICATED IN COMPLIANCE WITH ALL APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF THE STATE IN WHICH THEY ARE A NATIONAL AND/OR RESIDENT (ALL SUCH PERSONS TOGETHER BEING REFERRED TO AS "RELEVANT PERSONS")."
WH Ireland are inviting placees, retail PI's like you and me cannot take a stake. So it is II's and/or Pro investors only.
I suggest that the II's and pr investors know their onions. And that them buying £4.2m worth at 0.2p means that this is more likely to climb that it is to fall. OF course, you should back your opinion with some facts. I see a climb in the SP, on the basis of the heavily researched II's / pro investors taking stakes. These are not small time PI's, these are guys with bonuses on the line and management to report to, they get it wrong,then they get a boot in the behind and no bonus.
I disagree Ian. The crane will pull everything out today., then tomorrow the perf gun will be lowered and fired, then they'll pull it out. Pop everything back in by lunch on Thursday. Thats unless they also plan to dual complete the well at the same time.
Flow rates by COB on Monday latest, they will have flowed the well for Friday / Saturday / Sunday. 3 days is plenty to provide an operational update given track record of UKOG. The board will be desperate to get some good news out before the AGM. Otherwise, it's a bloodbath with several elephants in the room and no peanuts.
Ocelot, volume picked up, as I expected. 300m and counting today. That's 3 * the 90 day average. I'm expecting more of the same tomorrow, and the SP to remain in the 0.2p to 0.21p channel. I'm on amber alert for news updates, Twitter feeds, RNS's, etc. Sat with the finger on the button ready to buy.
I see on Twitter that the user who's post was removed here is saying that mug punters are being done over. Well, I dont know about you, but when I see the terms of the WH Ireland placing allowing only II's and professional investors to take up shares in the placing, that last thing that comes to mind is "mug punters". We have the opinion of someone who clearly hates the company versus the opinion of II's and professional investors. I doubt that the II's / pro's would consider themselves as mug punters. They are held to account, they need to earn their bonuses, and need to give their clients benchmark (or better) returns. So I'll take the cynicism of the posts by that person as nothing more than what they are, and that is that they are not worthy of the few bytes of storage required on a platform like this.
Fact check there. I have logged the following holders.
Canaccord - holding in excess of 5% and have not issued a TR-1 to show a fall below 5%
Tellurian - were holding a few hundred million shares at the end of March, they were selling, I posted on this very matter yesterday.
Unknown II from 2nd Dec placing - PI's do not know who they are, but they did hold £2m worth and there has not been any statement with regards to what they have done with their holding.
YA - may still be able to use the CLN until they are paid off. That is imminent based on the WH Ireland placing which was expected to be complete by 10th June.
What I would say, is that you have no evidence of Canaccord selling. But for them to take over 5% would require some analysts at Canaccord to do some very detailed analysis and present to their bosses. They would not be buying in on a whim, it will be research heavy. ANd I would doubt that they are looking for a small % return. Canaccord are a Wealth Management provider, they are not like Hargreaves Lansdown that simply broker PI deals. They will be running a fund or several, into which they will be putting that UKOG stock, their customers will be buying units in the funds and not buying UKOG stock.
Seems that you are making complete guesses, rather than looking at the facts. You have no facts to backup your opinion, so it is just that, opinion. Looking at your posting history (backwoodsman), it appears that you have a very solid dislike for UKOG, but I see that you favour other oilers. I dont need to say anymore, but I do have some Ronseal that I need to apply to my back door step.
Penguins,
Thank you for your detailed post. Some good points raised there.
My investment decision does really hinge on Canaccord, if they TR-1 10%, then I am in without any further research. I've not had more than 15 minutes today to read through my notes, and no real time whatsoever to expand that research further. However, if there is an operational update with good flow rates, then that will be sufficient for me to invest; it will not be a single investment, it will be staggered and based upon news flow, I'm not in the business of risking a large chunk in one go.
The Dunsfold and Isle of Wight applications look pretty solid and like you say the Dunsfold one seems close to being "nailed on".
But back to Horse Hill if I may. I see lots of speculation as to whether the 300 bopd rates are just for HH1 or whether they also include HH2z. Right now we do not know, and UKOG have been quite sneaky in not releasing detailed information. It would be natural to assume that UKOG may well be hiding some bad news and that HH2z is a bad drill. Looking at the RNS's and the Twitter feeds from them, the cores looked very good, so what could be the issue? We know that there was a water ingress issue at the so called toe end, and we know that they have already performed an intervention and plugged the toe end. What we do not know is how much they plugged. We also have zero details in relation to the next set of inventions that UKOG said HH2z would require. I do not see any operational updates from the company, so am I to assume that they have done diddly squat with HH2z interventions over the last 2 months, is the well shut in awaiting something more substantial for a further workover (maybe a workover rig rather than a crane, and maybe a delay in getting a rig to site)?
Until there is news, then I remain out, and until there is news, then all we really have is opinion. I respect your opinion, have looked through several pages of your posts, and I see a degree of balance but certainly a lean to the negative, which is understandable as the UKOG board and the RNS's released do not give the full detailed view that many of us would like.
Standing by for action. I see that the crane is very busy on site, and looks like they are not just moving a few decks chairs. Looks like they are gearing up for something a little more than the hokey cokey pump routine.
Jimmy,
Might be easier for you to Google Oil Well perforations and watch a few videos on youtube.
The existing well for HH1 was drilled some time back. They are not going to make it wider or deeper. That well runs through many layers, several of which are oil bearing; the Portland and the Kimmeridge (which is actually 5 separate layers with shales potentially combining the 2 most prominent KL3 and KL4).
The perforations are a standard oil well practice. The well once drilled is fitting with a liner, in the case of HH1 it is a solid liner. As you can imagine, no oil (or other fluids) is able to pass from the oil bearing layers into the liner unless that lined is then punctured. Furthermore, to increase the oil flow from the strata into the oil well, it is common practice to perforate the oil bearing layer. UKOG will use a crane to lower a special tool into the well, the perforation gun (its actually just a long metal tube with a series of explosive charges that fire projectiles horizontally into the liner and strata outside the rock). The charges look like large shotgun shells (go google it). Once in position, an operator will trigger the gun and the charges will fire.
UKOG intend to increase the perforations deeper into the strata to encourage the oil to flow more deeply. An analogy; if you were shot be a single .22 bullet in the leg, then you would bleed, but it would not be a huge bleed; but if you were shot by a tommy gun with 100 rounds to the chest, arms, leg, neck, head, etc, then blood would be gushing out.
Perforations are usually quite a quick process. Pump off, completion string (including downhole pump) out, lower in gun, fire, remove gun, put completion string back in, put pump on. All very doable within 2 working days. So I expect them to complete this by Thursday lunch. Then they'll flow test and report on rates (I hope), and I'm really hoping that we see something just north of 400 bopd for a 24 hour period.
Ocelot, I would keep a close eye on it, but agreed, volumes are down, but still pretty healthy when compared to the 90 day average (50% of the 90 day average within the first hour).
Penguins, you stated "there was a previous poster who had 'expectations' that were never fulfilled - let's hope yours don't go the same way." My response is that I am sure there have been plenty of people who have been disappointed in life and with their investments. Was there only one previous poster who had "expectations"? I would have thought that there would have been hundreds of posters on this board over the last 2 years who have been disappointed that their "expectations" were not realised in the timeframe they desired. In your post, are you singling me out for some kind of exchange on all things UKOG? It feels like you want a good open discussion, which is why I am here.
I was very disappointed to see so much chaff overnight, I stay away from the boards in the evenings in favour of using that time to do things more interesting. Which leads nicely onto the next point, crane is on-site, and that should be to perform the increased perforation of the Portland in HH1 if I am to believe the RNS and the timing. With the AGM next week, I am sure that the board will want to share some good news; my chips are on the HH1 perforations this week with flow news RNS by close on Monday. I would like to see an update on HH2z; maybe its bad news, but looking through the RNS's, it seems we are overdue an update and it feels like they are withholding sensitive information.
With regards to the purchase of the kit from PW Well services, I think that was very prudent. Reducing opex costs right here and now to a very enviable level, just ask BP what they think of sub $15 costs. That kit will almost certainly be used at other sites should Horse Hill developments continue as planned.
And a final word, the crane entering site this morning. I can see that some people on Twitter are taking exception with the path it took to enter site, and I see that there is a planning condition relating to this. I've looked through the submission from Zetland on behalf of UKOG and it looks very thorough. I would think that abnormal size vehicles would be granted relief, the hazards were all flashing on that crane.
I disagree with what Skwizz stated. When he said that the virus did little to impact UKOG. Well, look at the charts, the Covid 19 impact on all oil stocks hit UKOG hard just like it did the others; unfortunately, that step down in SP was then mad worse by the CLN finance deal that put a lid on any climb in the SP. UKOG SP was knocked down and then kept down. It could not recover in the way that other small cap oilers have been able to do.
So, yes, Covid-19 did impact, and continues to impact UKOG. Not just the SP, but also the massive hit that Brent oil took. That sub $60 Brent price, which dipped to sub $20, and still sits sub $45 per barrel, is hitting UKOG directly in the pocket.
$60 / barrel, even at 300 bopd is £18,000 per day, whereas $30 / barrel (rough average over last 8 weeks or so) gives only $9,000 per day. That stacks up pretty quickly. 10 weeks (or 70 days) of that Brent impact is $630k, which is quite a bit of cash.
Again, I dont understand why such daft comments can be made and taken seriously. Expand please Skwizz.
What is your point Profit00? It is lost on me, like much of the one liner posts on here. The SP has remained above 0.2p and is showing no signs of going south. The CLN finance deal is history by the looks of it, that is unless YA RIverfort can still convert until the point where they are paid off? Have they been paid off yet, I dont think so, but maybe an agreement not to do any further conversions.
It is not a massive blue day, but it was not a red day. I'm waiting for the news to drop, my expectations are covered in posts today and last week; Canaccord to up their % holding. Tellurian to continue selling into the demand.
Why do you obsess with daily comments pushing the "disaster story"? I do not see any substance to your posts that can be discussed, so please expand. Why so negative?
I do not know why you post about the SP being more than 50% lower than it currently trades at. The volume of trades over the last 3 days has been considerable.
Thursday 4th : 1,270m traded
Friday 5th : 447m traded
Monday 8th : 500m and counting.
So across 3 days, I observe 2,217m shares traded.
There are presently 8,687m shares in issue (setting aside the 2.1b that WH Ireland are peddling).
So, over 25% of stock traded in total, in just 3 days. That is right up there with some of the biggest numbers i've seen in a small cap oiler for a long long time. That to me, indicates that this is not the ordinary churn of PI trades, which average ~100m per day. This is a factor of 7 times larger than the average.
Just some basic analysis above, and all my own opinion. I do not currently hold any UKOG shares, but will state again, if I see a 10% TR-1 from Canaccord, then I'll be putting in a serious stake (having sold my gold, and holding some cash).
Thorpedo, like I said, I think Tellurian are shamefully bad at issuing TR-1's, but they are overseas, so I dont believe that they need to issue other than at every 5% threshold. I dont think they need to issue at 1% changes. Not a specialist in that area, but both Canaccord and Tellurian seem only to have provided TR-1 at 5%, and not any 1% increments below or above.
I am pretty certain that they are selling. But that is just an opinion. I respect your opinion and we can agree to disagree. Until we get some facts then it is hearsay. But see my earlier post, and who is selling in large chunks?