Member Info for Martinigirl

Well I have to say I'm surprised at the large sells today. Whoever it was has certainly decided that today was the day to exit their position. I can only guess that this particular individual desperately needed the cash (margin call?) and likely lost a lot of money. Unless of course it was an attack on stop losses by the market makers, which could make sense. Whatever the reason for the sells it presented an opportunity and I added to my position today having taken profits from my Oil ETF. Hoping the regulatory approval of the acquisition will happen soon and the company can start generating revenues from the additional $350 million AUM, if my maths is correct then we are looking at revenues from this AUM of circa 0.4% so something in the region of $1.4 million additional revenues to the company. This alone given a typical pe multiple for the sector (according to a slide from the presentation for the Nkrthstar acquisition) being 29 (if I remember rightly, seem to have deleted the slide) then the EBITDA from this acquisition alone even on a conservative pe of 15 is still more than the current market cap not including the BOAGF and the Northstar AUM. I've been doing the maths (I have an A level in pure mathematics, albeit from 1988) on very conservative projections and my figures show that this is a very undervalued company. What is needed however is news, markets are a nightmare at the moment and I've seen some great RNS released and the share price hasn't reacted anywhere near to how it would in times gone by, so maybe the company are holding back news they're not obliged to release until general market sentiment improves. That would make sense to me. In the meantime, I will wait patiently and if funds and my own rules permit then I will add further at these levels

Whether it's 2 buys, a rollover or a Bed & ISA, whomever it is has confidence in their position to, buy, rollover or move into a tax efficient domain.
Nearly halfway through July now and closer to completion of the acquisition. Hopefully there will be some sort of additional update soon too.

Is Daisy Signal Man on twitter?
Their vocabulary and commentary are remarkably similar. Also similar to that of Share22k could it be possible that all 3 are one and the same? Highly likely. A sole dissenting voice on the internet, seeking out likes and recommendations to feel valued in spite of their lonely existence, a cat and a laptop keep them company on the long dark winter nights. In the summer dreams of BBQs with friends they wished they had. Friday nights alone watching reruns of Brideshead Revisted, a bottle of Lambrini and dinner out of tin foil take away containers, dreaming of as many different ways possible to say the same thing about a company, never truly understanding what is actually true. Destined to be alone, alone, alone.....

My thoughts on what's to come:
1. Company Brochure - I don't expect this to make too much difference to the SP, it will however provide more detailed information on the company, what they do and how they make money. There's likely plenty of people out there who have looked at Alpha but not invested as they don't understand the business. Hopefully this should help attract some new investors.
2. Brokers note - It all depends on what they say really, I believe that Danny was quoted some time ago as having a target market cap of $100 million, I think this number is a little on the low side given the change of direction of the business. If the broker research agrees then a target of circa 20p fully diluted would be my thought, that being a longer term target, near term I think 8p to 10p post Guernsey acquisition.
3. Guernsey Acquisition - Takes AUM to $700 million - see 2 above
4. Director Options - Exercisable at 2.95p, can't see them being exercised until much much higher maybe 8p plus, then it's money into the company.
5. Future Acquisitions - several being looked at and at various stages. We know from the a acquisitions to date that approximately for every $1 million cost we get circa $100 million in AUM. If all the warrants are exercised that's around $6 million so could well equate to another $600 million in AUM
6. Quoting for $200 million AUM - Whilst it would be fantastic if all the quotes were converted, the reality is that probably only 10% or 20% will be converted but that's still another $20 to $40 million added to the figure.
7. BOAGF - I expect the fund will continue to grow, by how much? Nobody knows but I think I would be happy with another $25 million added this year and then increased growth over future years as the family offices are allowed to invest larger amounts relative to the size of the fund.

As I see it from all of this then the company could easily achieve the $2 billion AUM within the next 18 months given the right opportunities to acquire the right assets.
My personal target for the share price is 25p, however I will reduce my exposure and remove capital along the way.

Daisy you confound me. Not too long ago you were extremely pro ALGW. On 1st April you posted:
"I am starting to sense a case of over delivery here now as per MW input as we will be close to $1.5 billion AUM probably by the end of this year."
At that time the company had already informed the market of the change of strategy and direction
Why worry about question 7 now? That change of strategy question was answered months ago.
The option price of 2.95p was a significant premium to the share price at the time the options were issued. You cannot argue differently. Had the share price been 5p then the options would have been at a premium to that 5p.
I'm not sure there have been plenty of shares available. I'm just an amateur investor so don't really understand the intricacies of Level 2 data but having seen the odd screenshot of this on my twitter feed, it looks to me like there aren't too many shares available below 3p and I think raaydaar said he was quoted 3.3p for a million shares when the price was just 2p. My interpretation of that fact alone is that the market makers would be willing to sell shares they didnt have (at a 66% premium) in the hope that they could acquire them below 3p and make their money that way.

Still you don't apologise, instead accept that you're wrong but willing to take the criticism. Be a better person and apologise.

Daisy rather than apologise for your wholly inappropriate comment you choose to make light of it and accuse others of being sensitive. You are truly an utterly disgraceful person!

Well said Raaydaar, my thanks to you for stepping up and taking on one of the key worker roles. I'm sure your family are extremely proud of you for what you have done. I must say I am appalled at what Daisy has said, to suggest that those in society who do lower paid jobs are somewhat inferior and can be the subject of a joke is disgraceful. Daisy you are the lowest of the low. I'm sure that ALGW and probably most if not all listed companies have shareholders who are plumbers, electricians, bricklayer, warehouse workers, delivery drivers etc, they are no less important as shareholders and are just as important to the economy of the country as the lawyers, bankers etc. You are a vile human being.

Looking forward to tomorrow morning.

Thank you for your advice Snowking, my name isn't Emma, I'm a retired Royal Navy Warfare Officer. I'm very disciplined in my approach to the markets once my target is achieved then I buy or sell at that point. I could regret that decision and have on numerous occasions (both profits and losses) however I find that works well for me. As I said PREM isnt a long term hold for me, I see value on the pilot mine RNS and that's why I'm here

Jenkoo, I've had no additional information. All I can surmise is that something else cropped up. I understand the issues were surrounding some specific wording in the RNS and how best to impart the information, my sources understanding was that this had been resolved, clearly not in time to issue an RNS today. I would imagine that discussions have been ongoing today so if things have been sorted then we will see the RNS tomorrow. I bought more today on the drop and if no RNS tomorrow then I will liquidate elsewhere and add a little more. This is just a trade for me though, in and out when the numbers are right. I dont have enough confidence in Geoege to make PREM a long term investment

Unsubstantiated but hearing from sources that RNS confirming pilot mine build is in the system and has been since last week, theres been some issues and discussion over the minutiae or wording the nomad wasn't happy with. Believed all resolved now expected to be released tomorrow.

All in all it's not too bad. There are some things that I take issue with and I am investigating further before making additional comment. If you read the accounts closely enough there are options available to get more information than has been disclosed this in turn will allow for any challenges to share options and bonus payments. I would suggest looking at page 26 of the accounts and perhaps contacting the company info@algwplc.com with any requests for information having read that page

I've just watched the video, I'm sure there were some far more difficult questions posed which were not answered, however, the salient points from my perspective are;
1. No requirement to raise funds
2. Confirmation on validity of warrants
3. Broker note forthcoming
The issue surrounding the accounts, is somewhat confusing, but my thinking having watched that part several times is that Gobind was referring to the regulatory process that will allow for the accounts to be published by 30th June. The company released an RNS not too long ago stating that the accounts would be published by 30th April, Gobind stated that the audit is in process and the company will align to IFRS standards to meet all the regulatory requirements. Perhaps the company should make some sort of statement to clarify the situation but as I see it, based on the interview, accounts will be released by end of April and Gobind was merely trying (unsuccessfully I might add) to show that they're actually doing something ahead of the timescales they're allowed. I've no doubt we will see clarification on this tomorrow as I'm sure they've been inundated with the same question.
All looks positive from my perspective and when the accounts are released we will have a better understanding of the revenues from Northstar which we can then use to generate a figure for revenues from the new acquisition. The fund is performing well, I would love to see an award for best performing, but I'll take yet another top 10, how many is that now? 4 or 5?

Thanks for those figures Raaydaar, I'm keen to see those numbers that Giles had talked about. One other thing that hasnt been mentioned is just how keen they are to keep costs down, minimal costs equals maximum profits and therefore maximum value to shareholders. I note that Giles mentioned an exit strategy, I agree that Gobind will have a number in mind. Danny Swick mentioned in an interview some time ago that he wanted the company to have a market cap of $100 million, that equates to a share price of about 17.5p with current shares in issue or about 12.7p if all of the warrants are exercised. Looking at the figures Raaydaat has posted I would think that Danny's market cap target is very much below what I believe is easily achievable if the company succeeds in its strategy. $300 million plus would be my target market cap and my grade B 'O' Level maths can work out what that equates to in terms of share price 38.1p (fully diluted) or about 17 times current share price. I'm sure we would ALL be happy with those returns on our investments here and I'm equally sure that most of us would have derisked our positions on the rise up.

I must say I was surprised at the RNS today. Certainly most unexpected. We knew they were looking at additional acquisitions but I for one expected the first to happen after some or all of the warrants had been converted and they had the additional $5 million in the kitty. Clearly the business is doing well as they have the ~$3.3 million to complete the acquisition, which means that they're generating income sufficient to fund this acquisition. I'm a little disappointed that the RCF is no longer on the table but if I'm honest I probably (in the back of my mind) knew it wasn't happening, the length of time passed from the review of policies suggested there were some issues. I would like a detailed explanation on this as I think it's important that we shareholders understand exactly what happened, the company spent a lot of time and money on this and for it not to happen we deserve to know if it was an issue with the provider or an issue with Alpha.
As things stand we have once again doubled AUM for the insurance side of the business to $650 million, that's massive progress in just over 12 months and it provides regular income. The BOAGF is an interesting prospect, the fund valuation now puts it in line for investment and marketing by larger funds so I'm expecting that to do very well over the coming months.
All in all it's great news, I bought more today, was a no brainer.

I'm no expert but it looks to me like the SP was held back all day to perhaps encourage those sells and give the market makers enough to fulfill the rather large delayed buy. I do wonder what would have happened had they gotten enough to fill the order in the morning.

1. Main market listed not AIM
2. NO PLACING
3. Going Up now not down

You've made it clear Daisy but sadly your posts which just happen to mimic the same content that your alter ego Candi would post suggest otherwise. Perhaps you don't suffer from dissociative identity disorder and merely forgot to log out from Daisy and log in as Candi. A typical symptom of dissociative disorders is an inability to distinguish between the various personalities and become confused. Again I would suggest psychosocial therapy, a quick Google search suggests it's very effective in those that are willing to accept they have an issue.

Just for clarity Daisy and to put your doubts to bed, I am not Mrs Raaydaar nor am I Raaydaar, I have never met or had contact with either (should Mrs Raaydaar exist) other than on this discussion forum. I am a retired Royal Navy Commander, joined the Navy in 1992 as a junior warfare officer and had a wonderful, exciting and sometimes frightening career on board Frigates and Destroyers.