Member Info for Martinigirl

If GR has ghe SC% in his hands and its SC6 or better I would have expected that to be announced, if its below an acceptable grade he's going to keep it quiet as that's clearly going to have an impact on how Canmax play their hand.

Silence isn't golden here, every minute closer to 16:30 without any good news from GR is a minute closer to his renowned break bad news on a Friday after close RNS.

Wouldn't want to be in this over the weekend

Definitely an increase. 8th Feb TR1 showed holdings of 14163516, today's shows holdings of 14379346 an increase of 215830. He holds more shares but a reduced percentage after the exercise of the warrants

Nice to see Marcus Alder has increased his holdings in the company. A positive sign when major shareholders add to their pot of shares. Mark Ward also increased to 25% as per the annual report and Roy Rawlins remains at 4% between the 3 of them that's 32% of the company held for the long term.

I'm relatively happy with the 2022 results. Some things to take away:
? Mark Ward increased shareholding to 25% adding circa 22 million from the open market to his holdings
? "Had both AILAC and Havelet been owned throughout the year revenues of the Group would have increased by £1,920,919 and profits by £686,886"
? profit of £3178578
? They're making acquisitions at bargain prices

I consider myself to be an average person and if most average people are like me their bank holiday weekends are spent enjoying the company of family and friends or getting away from the rat race

I see where you're coming from cszjrh01 the guidance is to release at the latest 4 months from year end (for full year accounts) one could argue that the 4 months ends on Sunday 30th April therefore they should publish (at the latest) at the first opportunity post that date which is now Tuesday. You could always email ir@algwplc and ask for an explanation. I'm giving them until Tuesday 7am, if no rns at that point I will be making my dissatisfaction very very clear to the company. On the plus side its an opportunity for anyone who wishes to add at these levels an opportunity to do so. So long as the results match or exceed broker expectations I believe we will move back above the 3p. Hopefully we will also be provided with some sort of update with or shortly after the results.

Pointless releasing today, I reckon they've made the deliberate decision to release after the Bank Holiday weekend which I'm fine with. I'd rather have 4 trading days for the market to react to what I hope will be results better than the broker suggestion than 1 days trading and a long weekend. All being well these results will show how good a year they've had and attract some new buyers who will hold longer term. As frustrating as it is I personally think its the correct decision for the benefit of shareholders

You're right we don't know, much as those proclaiming this week don't know. My experience with exporting a single non hazardous non chemical item to South Africa from the UK (where the freight company operate 2 daily flights) suggest its not happening this week. I may be wrong but I very much doubt it

No need to change anything, minimal success is still a success. I'll take a profit as a good day, just like here, sitting on a nice profit but definitely not taking it, holding on for what everyone, bar a couple, know will come at some point in the not too distant future

What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, it seems what happens in Daisy's mind keeps being regurgitated. Same old same old, no substance nonsense. I coild sell quite easily if i wanted to. Had minimal success on the tables so far. Night time helicopter trip of Vegas booked for later. Grand Canyon trek tomorrow.

Daisy1963

Posted in: ALGW

Posts: 616

Price: 2.20

No Opinion

RE: Spitballing future revenues26 Mar 2022 23:12
@Iain2351: See my post of 20th April @ 16:00 for where I think we'll be short term (up to 18 months).
raadaar's guestimates on the SP are in the same ball park but I don't think ALGW will get to $1 billion AUM, I'm much more conservative thinking $250 million could be added to AUM this year.
At the moment the Group is roughly at break-even. An additional $250 million of AUM should generate a net profit of £2.25 million which, using the current shares plus warrants would give an EPS of 0.36p. Using a P/E of 25 this would translate to an SP of 9p. Of course EPS and P/E etc. are for established Companies whereas ALGW is still full of potential so maybe an SP of 20p could be achievable in the next year / 18 months.
20p would result in a Market Cap of £120 million or so at which point ALGW becomes a 'target of interest' to the big US asset management organisations and we can expect a buy out to follow.
So somewhere between my 20p and raadaar's 32p in a couple of years time :)

The title says recap, the body update therefore it is both!
You've no idea how far potential acquisition negotiations have progressed nor how long completion will take, Havelet took a mere few weeks, so saying any new acquisitions won't be completed until next year is clearly an attempt at being disruptive.
Do they need to mention the BOAGF fund value? They've told you what the AUM is they've told uou the returns the BOAGF had made for its investors which are well in excess of FTSE returns. I'm not going to do the leg work you need to do to answer your questions, get of your lazy backside and find things out for yourself, may even change your negative viewpoint when you find the information you so desperately want others to give you.
All assumptions and guesswork? You're the one assuming and guessing, the rest of us have researched (see my comment above about your lack of research).
I stand by my comments in December based on my expectations of news which didn't happen. I still think 5p, 6p, or 8p will be a bargain price to be paying.
SP has moved significantly in the last 12 months in fact its up over 100% from 52 weeks ago.

There is indeed a large buyer, anyone with half a brain can see that they have accumulated over 3% of the company already. Market regulations require that they notify the company within 2 trading days of exceeding the threshold. By my calculations the 3% threshold was definitely crossed on 3rd March, so notification should take place no later than tomorrow.
The recap RNS today is indeed an update, anyone with an ability to read and understand English can deduce from the opening paragraph that it is such:
" pleased to provide a general UPDATE on the Company's activities within its fund and insurance business segments and a review of achievements in 2022." (My capitalisation for emphasis)
The UPDATE shows clearly just how much the company has progressed over the last 2 years and also hints a what's to come over the coming weeks / months. The BOAGF has performed well over 2022 and has started 2023 with good returns. If you want to know the value of the fund just do a bit of research and you can find it! They're clearly well on the path to progressing further acquisitions and have a clear road map to increase AUM to the $2 billion target. All looks great from where I'm sitting and I look forward to future updates as and when they are released.

I would hazard a guess that the background buyer has now revealed their hand. 12.5 million not too long ago plus a few more chunky buys in the interim and now the 2 trades printed today. I'm not sure they're both buys, judging from the flags the 10 million was delayed which suggests to me it was a sell, the 7.5 million wasn't and I believe that to be a buy. Surprised that someone who had 10 million shares chose to sell now (maybe a margin call elsewhere or just needed the money for something else) after the publication of the broker note and the accounts due in the next 7 weeks which if the broker note is to be believed (and I think they've probably been conservative in their estimates) would put the company breakeven at worst. That alone should be enough to attract significant numbers of new investors, perhaps more like the background buyer or even institutional investors.
All will likely be revealed next week when I expect we will find out the identity of a new major shareholder. How big a stake in the company are they looking to take? Our 3 current major shareholders hold a massive chunk of the company, we know there are others with large stakes (just below 3%) so the already small freefloat continues to reduce and will likely dwindle further as large positions continue to be built. I'm shocked the larger market still hasn't woken up to the amazing value right here, right now.

Or is it a "warehoused" buy, fact is none of us know. If it's a sell it goes to prove that the MMs have been short of shares as they would never take that volume in one hit at the bottom of the spread. If it's a "warehoused" buy then it takes another 1.5 million out of the diminishing free float and the buyer closer to publishing that inevitable TR1. The U/T was 2.9 so a flat close which on any other day with a 1.5 million sell would have seen a 10% drop. My guess is if its a sell then they have a home for the shares to go to. If it's a buy then the shares have gone to a long term home. Let's see how the rest of the week pans out, that will give us all a clearer picture.

All the evidence was there and clear to see. Any decent volume from the general PI will force the price up very very quickly. Whomever the buyer is has played a blinder in keeping off radar and has had the patience to accumulate and the contacts to keep the price held down around these 3p levels

The buys weren't made today, they've been accumulated over time and "warehoused" by the broker until such time as the orders have been filled and released to the market. I suspect there's plenty more to come but looks to me, from larger buys over the last few weeks, that they've passed a certain threshold and accumulated more than 3%. I expect there'll very soon be a TR1 with a new major shareholder on the books

Background buyer starting to reveal their hand

Buys

What's important to remember is that for every buy there has to be a sell (at some point). Last week we saw a seller(s) those sells were bought today bringing us back to equilibrium. The MMs will only ever hold a certain number of shares to mitigate their risk. We know the freefloat here is limited, the recent additional TR1 has taken out another 1.3 million from that freefloat. If the thought that there is a background buyer (and I subscribe to that thought) is correct then they will be looking to take a significant (TR1 level) position (minimum 13 million shares but likely more given their modus operandi) the freefloat reduces further. Aside from the seller last week there's not been much appetite for selling recently which suggests that people are holding for a much higher price because:
A) They see a significantly higher profit in the short/medium/long term
B) They're underwater and waiting to exit at break even/small loss/small profit
C) They're trading the percentages
Right now I think that option A is where most holders are based on estimates provided by others on estimated holdings.
Right now I think option C is in the ascendancy, it's a traders dream with the swings we have, however those traders will get caught out and be replaced by option A investors.