Member Info for MarktheSpark

All companies under FSA have a duty to report “inside” information that will “be likely to have a significant effect on the price of the shares if it were generally available.”. I assume anything significant delaying first oil is covered by that rule...therefore, no RNS message....therefore probably just the weather.

My theory is that that after miscommunication in Dubai, AM Is Metric but the riser is Whitworth. That was always the problem working on my Bantam. Either that or the crew’s deliberately screwed it up to get bubble over the weekend.

Up 12% on Google Finance - is this the drilling news. Igas has also been gradually pushing up over the last week - just a dream but I wonder if good news from Cuadrilla is round the corner.

Will the SP make 50p by the close?

Fingers crossed for the hook up. Exciting times. If remember rightly Dr Trice said the production of these fractured basement plays need to be handled carefully so I would expect a very cautious build up of output. However it doesn’t look like he’s put a foot wrong so far. Hook-up and especially first oil must be a price sensitive event so I guess we can expect a RNS message tomorrow or early next week.

Sorry, stupid fat finger. Just back on this share after a while. Lots of really interesting tech posts. However I thought it was interesting that the SP seemed to be matching the oil price since early October almost as though the II’s wern’t interested in progress to first oil. Well I guess profit will come from oil price so it makes some sense. Anyway since all the ducks now seem to be in a row with maybe less than 4 weeks to first oil AND the oil price probably on the way back up, it must be time to get back in.

Just back in after a long absence. There’s a lot of technical talk here which is great but the SP SEEMS

How can the figures possibly be phenomenal, SS gave a figure for lorry numbers which was roughly what our friends the lorry counters have been reporting, 2 lorries or about 400bd leaving the site. That’s Ok but not phenomenal, what it does do is hopefully prove the site and add credance to the developments for 2019. Not a gusher but a decent producer.

On November 15th RNS said over 40 tankers so far and on YouTube recently SS said around 90 tankers so far so in around 30 days allowing for some stoppages he’s produced about 45-50 tankers worth at 220 barrels per tanker. That’s 9090-11000 barrels or 330 to 360 barrels a day. Must be some error because we don’t know in particular how many days they were in production but it’s a ball park figure. Of course that’s only the beginning. Make of it what you will.

Interesting interview, I think Steve only just managed a pass in A’Level PR Interviewing, but the the three phrases which came out for me were “as expected”, “good fortune” and “alright”. Personally I think that adds up to the well meeting it’s target but not being a gusher. My prediction/guess would be about 900-1000bd of sustained production which with the basin proved and an expectation of doubling output inside 15months should push the SP TO 2p +. BTW his figure of 90 tankers out suggests our lorry counting friends either have an inside man or have been very vigilant.

Just had a look at the figures..

“Renewable heat generation represented between 5.9 and 6.1 per cent of Scotland’s non-electrical heat demand in 2017.”

Basically then Scotland is still almost totally dependent on non-renewables, probably natural gas for home heating. The boss of the Natural Grid said very clearly to a House of Lords committee that if we replace all gas central heating with electric heating we will need to increase national electricity production threefold, and that doesn’t touch the intermittency problem. Basically it’s the problem the Germans got into, close down nuclear, invest huge sums in renewables, have the highest electricity bills in Europe but still end up burning huge amounts of filthy brown coal in the winter when the wind doesn’t blow, So negliable net reductions in CO2 emissions.

Just had a look at the figures..

“Renewable heat generation represented between 5.9 and 6.1 per cent of Scotland’s non-electrical heat demand in 2017.”

Basically then Scotland is still almost totally dependent on non-renewables, probably natural gas for home heating. The boss of the Natural Grid said very clearly to a House of Lords committee that if we replace all gas central heating with electric heating we will need to increase national electricity production threefold, and that doesn’t touch the intermittency problem. Basically it’s the problem the Germans got into, close down nuclear, invest huge sums in renewables, have the highest electricity bills in Europe but still end up burning huge amounts of filthy brown coal in the winter when the wind doesn’t blow, So negliable net reductions in CO2 emissions.

Except that natural gas makes a cheap substitute for diesel, especially in lorries and buses. Reading has been running a fleet of gas powered buses for some time. When a fleet of 20 ton lorries can be run economically day in, day out on battery power I might begin to believe you about renewables.

Scotland can be a world leader in renewables for as long as it likes but on a long freezing windless night it’s still going to be pretty chilly up the Gorbels, still what do you care about the early death from cold of a few elderly people as long as you save the planet.

Happy Christmas. Maybe Santa will bring you a Tonka Truck to ride on this year.

Except that natural gas makes a cheap substitute for diesel, especially in lorries and buses. Reading has been running a fleet of gas powered buses for some time. When a fleet of 20 ton lorries can be run economically day in, day out on battery power I might begin to believe you about renewables.

Scotland can be a world leader in renewables for as long as it likes but on a long freezing windless night it’s still going to be pretty chilly up the Gorbels, still what do you care about the early death from cold of a few elderly people as long as you save the planet.

Happy Christmas. Maybe Santa will bring you a Tonka Truck to ride on this year.

Tremors up to 1.9 are generally regarded as detectable only by seismographs. In other words inconsequential.

Riz, we are forecast a really cold spell of weather for January. I hope those you love don’t struggle to afford their energy bills or are dependent on renewables for their warmth. Wholesale gas prices have gone up massively this year. There’s more important things than the share price.

We are struggling to replace our nuclear power stations, coal is being phased out, renewables are unreliable, there is enormous competition for gas. The National Grid predict no shortages this winter but say that the high price of gas will bring coal more into the market. Is that what you want?

If this Twieet means Cuadrilla are leaking good news then they will have a duty to produce an RNS next week if they have new price sensitive information. Interesting times.

Saw this on a Twitter...

“The energy firm @CuadrillaUK has told BBC Radio Lancashire its work at the Preston New Road site has led to "the most extraordinary find". It says the rock is very suitable for fracturing, gas came out very early from minimal fracking and it's a "tremendous opportunity" for jobs”

Not sure what this means in terms of amount of gas produced but it certainly sounds positive.

Our friends at Weald Oilers say at least two tankers a day this week so one tanker equals roughly 220 barrels of oil, that’s 440 barrels a day from KL4 plus an unknown factor for lorries missed - perhaps, maybe, good luck - I guess we should hear by Christmas.

Apologies, double post.

Just a note on your maths. $175K a week is $700K a month or $8.4million a year, which I guess amounts to over 2p a share. There is a question about the $40 a barrel figure. There is a significant risk that the lack of investment in O&G exploration over the last few years will lead to a world supply crisis in 2019/20 with a significant possibility of oil supply strain and oil at $80 again. Also UKOG have said they see the present drilling campaign is just the beginning of at least a three well pad with production around 3000bd which would be profitable indeed.