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On the supply side - USA crude stocks declined significantly this week and are likely to continue as Saudi exports began to be restricted from the beginning of the year - this and the OPEC squeeze generally will begin to impact on Brent and WTI prices.
On the demand side - less predictable - Trump may be looking for an end to the China tariff dispute with some cosmetic PR gains which would create optimism. However more important for POO and the world economy generally is the possibility of the end of the debt bubble in the USA and China which would throw us back into a 2008 situation. See the often excellent Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph.
Oh Bugger ,
Looking at the Sun report it looks like the Springs Road preliminary findings indicate high levels of organic content which tends to correlate with productivity. The rock also has to be hard enough to fracture when pressured which hasn’t been disclosed yet, maybe not known until lab tests.
It was well known there were hydrocarbons in the Gainsborough Trough, after all they have been extracting oil there by conventional means since the Second World War, but we didn’t know if this extended to shale resources although the BGS predicted very high resource levels. It’s not clear which area in Texas they were comparing with but it all sounds very promising especially with Jim Radcliffe’s influence to push things through.
Looking at the Sun report it looks like the Springs Road preliminary findings indicate high levels of organic content which tends to correlate with productivity. The rock also has to be hard enough to fracture when pressured which hasn’t been disclosed yet, maybe not known until lab tests.
It was well known there were hydrocarbons in the Gainsborough Trough, after all they have been extracting oil there by conventional means since the Second World War, but we didn’t know if this extended to shale resources although the BGS predicted very high resource levels. It’s not clear which area in Texas they were comparing with but it all sounds very promising especially with Jim Radcliffe’s influence to push things through.
Great news for Igas and brilliant that John Blaymires, long time Chief Operating Office, should have this success to mark his retirement.
Encouraging RNS message.
There is an RNS message on the IGAS site giving quite positive info on the Springs Road site in which a Egdon has a 14.5% interest. More importantly it bodes well for the Gainsborough Trough generally where Egdon has most of its licences.
Yes, and if anyone knows where you can get free real time or nearly real time (I’m not a trader) NBP gas prices - I’d be grateful, thanks. I take a nerdy interest in these things, thanks.
Yes, and if anyone knows where you can get free real time or nearly real time (I’m not a trader) NBP gas prices - I’d be grateful, thanks. I take a nerdy interest in these things, thanks.
Just a point of information, you can get maps of the UK’s gas supply in nearly real time if you Google National Grid Prevailing View. I agree with the points you are making and also recommend Dr Mackay brilliant book which I think is available free on the internet. I’m not sure that your figures completely add up, most of our imports come from Norway, not the EU but perhaps importantly at times of short supply, “beast from the east” etc the supplies from Norway run up against pipeline constraints and we DO rely on EU and also LNG imports. It’s also worth noting that the National Grid in their Winter Review say that as Gas becomes more expensive it it is priced out of the electricity market by coal. In other words if you restrict gas supply you get coal so green opposition to gas really is shooting themselves (and the environment) in the foot. Cheers.
F....ed cable. Order a new one from Screwfix, delivery next day. Job done. ??
Personally I wouldn’t get over excited about the SP, yes we’ll get a rise on the hook-up, a bigger one on first oil but remember RT has said the output will need to be nursed more than from a conventional well so it might be a slower burn than some would hope for. Talk of 20k bd just sets up an expectation which first oil will not meet. Just IMHO.
I’m no expert but I presume we will know sometime on Sunday if the ship is hooked-up and staying on station at Lancaster. It’s forecast to blow 40mph on Monday so if not secure she will return to her previous safe mooring late Sunday. Any of you guys who actually know what they are talking about agree?
I’m ignorant on these things but could they be going for a weather window Thursday into Friday (bbc weather data for Lerwick - wind speed in single figures). They need to negotiate some heavy stuff to get there on time. good luck.
I used to work in risk assessment and one of the oldest, almost hackneyed, rules was that “nothing predicts future behaviour better than past behaviour”. With that thought in mind, would you invest in the people around this outfit?
On the operational side I see a lot of of nitrogen has arrived on site, maybe either for well stimulation or cleaning, but I only see accounts from the “eyes” of one tanker out. Good luck to them anyway, the U.K.plc needs all the help it can get.
I’d expect the SP to run in lock-step with the price of oil, as it did for most of last year, until near the hook up, or other significant news like a buy-in.
All companies under FSA have a duty to report “inside” information that will “be likely to have a significant effect on the price of the shares if it were generally available.”. I assume anything significant delaying first oil is covered by that rule...therefore, no RNS message....therefore probably just the weather.
My theory is that that after miscommunication in Dubai, AM Is Metric but the riser is Whitworth. That was always the problem working on my Bantam. Either that or the crew’s deliberately screwed it up to get bubble over the weekend.
Up 12% on Google Finance - is this the drilling news. Igas has also been gradually pushing up over the last week - just a dream but I wonder if good news from Cuadrilla is round the corner.
Will the SP make 50p by the close?