Member Info for MarktheSpark

Oh dear, f—-keep. First I bet on fracking, f—-ked, then Hurricane, f—-ked a second time. But lots of lessons learned, diversify your portfolio and the first loss is often the smallest. I’m sticking to the Telegraph’s virtual share trading game where at least it’s safe. Good luck all.

I guess somebody knows something we don’t. Look out for Wressle news soon.

Guess we should get RNS tomorrow, one way or the other, regarding possible farm out ....
From recent RNS “ Following an extensive farm-out process, the Company can announce that ERUK has signed an exclusivity agreement (the "Agreement") in respect of Licence P1929 and P2304 with a large internationally recognised exploration and production company (the "Counterparty"). Exclusivity has been granted to the Counterparty subject to a definitive farm out agreement or other definitive legal agreement(s) being entered into by 19 January 2020 and completion occurring by 19 April 2020.”
Cross ‘em.

Just been re-reading the recent RNS message.
“The Company notes the media speculation regarding the Warwick West well. The well is due to commence testing soon. The timing of testing is weather dependent. As such it is far too early to make any conclusions as to the success of the Warwick West well.”
I note this isn’t a denial. Does anyone else interpret the message as. “The rumours are true, the first signs are positive but we can’t say so yet until we’ve got the numbers”

The reason is obvious, the success of Egdon is perceived brightly or wrongly to be partly related to the success of their shale resources but the news report yesterday was that Boris (for purely political election related reasons) is ready to put a temporary stop on fracking in the UK. Absolutely bloody ridiculous but a way of forestalling an easy win for the opposition given the ill-informed negative public opinion.

I have come to the view that it may take a severe winter with two or three weeks of windless freezing weather and the risk of electricity cuts and deaths of the elderly and vulnerable people for the public to realise the importance of energy reliability and security.

It's interesting and encouraging that the SP is rising against the price of oil. Normally the two correlate quite well. Makes you wonder what is driving the increase particularly as we are still a couple of weeks from any more drill news. Long may it continue.

Looks like short term the effect of the bombing will depend on how quickly the facilities come back on line, looks like reserve stocks will cover things for the next 40-60 days, after that it’s more uncertain. More attacks and we’re into $100 a barrel territory. More interesting is how this attack effects strategic thinking regarding future security of supply especially by China who have increased their imports from Saudi by about half in the last year. Security of supply generally equals diversification of sources so China may well turn more attention to possibly big suppliers like Venezuela and Iraq but also relative minnows like the North Sea and WOS.

I suspect generally this attack will increase the risk premium for supplies from the Middle East with an effect on the POO for some years to come.

I’m no expert but Warwick Deep was two & a half months from spud to results. I guess Lincoln will be slightly shorter so results around 12th September, but when do we expect a flare sighting?

Actually he’s running a highly successful O&G company called (I think) Rockrose Energy.

Rizo, Sing “RNS...RNS....RNS” to the tune of “Here we go....Here we go...Here we go”

Price of oil rising to on basis of Gulf risk factors and US oil stocks data. The American Petroleum Institute reported a large crude oil inventory draw of 7.55 million barrels for the week ending June 20th, higher than expectations. However the US / China trade dispute is still a dampener on the demand side.

Some bubble, US shale has risen from from next to nothing in 2010 to more than 7 mb/d at the start of this year, the US is now the world’s biggest producer, bigger than Saudi Arabia and has transformed global oil markets. In my view fracking made a major contribution to rescuing the US from the 2008 financial disaster. Without it we’d be paying £2 a litre or more for petrol.

Is this the week we get the results of the Springs Road core analysis?
Is the core sample still effervescing in Igas HQ?
Will the US / Iran conflict suddenly turn nasty driving up the price of crude?
What effect will the massive Philly refinery fire have on crude and petrol prices in the US?
Will Trump and the Chinese Premier reach some preliminary compromise on trade giving a boost to oil prices?

Could any of you experts explain the third para of the RNS - is the lower average production about looking after the reservoir or is it the limitations of the take-off facilities for the oil?
Congrats to all you LT Hurricane holders.

The 6 monthly report predicted that the evaluation of the cores from the Springs Road site would be available in Q2 2019 so we start June with a reasonable expectation of good news. Remember that INEOS leaked news to the press that the cores looked very promising indeed.

What a contrast between the U.K. and the USA - from the oil price.com website...

“A bill on the verge of becoming law in Texas would classify civil disobedience against the construction of a pipeline in Texas a third-degree felony, putting it on “the same level of felony as attempted murderers,” according to the Texas Observer, or equivalent to sentences handed down to “drive-by shooters who fail to hit their mark,” as Bloomberg put it.

The legislation would elevate pipelines as “critical infrastructure,” classifying them in the same category as power plants and water treatment facilities. But it would also include projects under construction, going beyond current law, according to the Observer.”

I guess not many here would go that but I can see the point about “critical infrastructure”.

A general election, with the Tories where they are in the polls, it’s more likely turkeys will vote for Bernard Matthews.

An alternative black swan event would be the Iranians damaging Saudi oil facilities via their proxies in the Yemen and causing an oil supply crisis, that would be £2 retail petrol.

Notice today DRAX are planning a carbon negative electricity supply system using gas, wood chips and carbon capture and storage into disused N Sea oil facilities. By the way, this is exactly the way the late, great Prof David Mackay predicted we could have low carbon and reasonably secure & affordable energy - gas plus carbon capture.

Just bought my entitlement. With Springs Road, Wressle & UJO’s West Newton on the horizon thought it must be worth a small punt.

Price of oil down over the last couple of days. Before the move towards first production the SP roughly correlated with POO and the more we’re in a news vacuum this correlation will return. Perhaps also, as mentioned below, the SP is responding to the general market fear about the effect of the US -China trade tensions.

Firstly don’t ask me for recommendations - I’ve lost shedloads over the last decade. Having said that I’d probably go for Igas because of their bigger conventional assets. They both have down side risks if Labour, Greens or Lib-Dems exert influence and HMG decide to ban fracking but equally if the Springs Road core turns out well (results in next month I guess) and is able to be exploited then they both could do well. BTW my only other buy has been Hurricane which is the only one in profit . I think there is still time to jump in before first oil but don’t blame me if it turns out to be another misadventure.