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Forget Truss (the lettuce will win), here are just a few news items relevant to the fracking debate….
1. China has today relaxed its COVID immigration rules which may well be a sign of relaxing the zero COVID strategy generally, this signals increased world demand for LNG with implications for higher gas prices in the U.K. and the EU.
2. Russia has fired a missile in the vicinity of an RAF unarmed reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace, in other words raising the international temperature yet again. How far is it from this to an “accidental” cutting of the U.K. -Norway gas pipeline which provides a major part of our gas supply. Putin keeps upping the ante and it’s dangerous.
3. The price of Diesel fuel in particular will continue to rise. Whatever the supply of crude oil, a major constraint on diesel supply is limited refinery capacity across Europe. Until now diesel has been imported in large quantities from Russian refineries but from the end of the year there will be a ban on purchasing Russian supplies, producing U.K. shortages which will increase inflation.

I am deeply disappointed that the Labour Party has chosen populism and polititical advantage over the needs of their constituents.

Light relief. I see the government is planning a public information campaign encouraging people to reduce energy use. I remember in the awful winter of early 1963, as a little lad, being sent to school with a home knitted balaclava helmet. Maybe Liz Truss could arrange the nationwide distribution of the knitting pattern. Any other suggestions?

Yes I guess this is why the IGAS SP has shown such a huge rise. With its interests in conventional oil, fracking, geothermal and hydrogen, it’s seen as a win whichever way the energy future turns out.

BBC report that Ofgen are warning of energy shortages this winter the. They say there is a possibility the UK could enter a "gas supply emergency”. This will effect both gas and electricity supplies. If Russia cuts off even more exports of gas this crisis will only get worse.

BBC report that Ofgen are warning of energy shortages this winter the UK is facing “a significant risk" of gas shortages this winter, according to Ofgen and they say there is a possibility the UK could enter a "gas supply emergency”. This will effect both gas and electricity supplies. If Russia cuts off even more exports of gas this crisis will only get worse.

Egdon’s SP has always been event driven, any positive event, eg positive government announcements tend to increase the price and viva versa. Yes the price of oil will be a factor, OPEC are planning a price cut which probably accounts for the oil price rise today. However the current worldwide economic problems may well reduce oil demand and outweigh any OPEC a attempt to manipulate the price upwards.
Regarding fracking the newest medium term weather forecast suggests a autumn period dominated by high pressure weather systems over Western Europe with lower than average temperatures and slow wind speeds. It might focus tiny government minds. Time will tell if the current omnishambles will make Liz Truss more risk averse or whether she might see fracking as one of her few chances for a big win before the election.

On Wednesday Johnny messaged “Marks a Telegraph reader. He thinks Putin wants to 'expand Greater Russia'. IGNORE.” . Well the Telegraph just reported “Vladimir Putin will officially add territories of Ukraine to Russia at a signing ceremony in the Kremlin on Friday”. As my old Dad used to say “Stick that in your pipe and smoke it”

The next thing Putin will do is deny responsibility for the damage then innocently remind the UK and Europe that the incident shows how vulnerable undersea infrastructure is. It’s more game playing using his only major weapon (except nuclear, gulp) which is energy supply. In my view he’s a sick man, maybe dying, who knows he’s made a huge mistake and wants to leave as his legacy a Greater Russia. A sad and lethal semi-dictator.

In fact the Director General of NATO suggested a few years ago that Russia has had a hand in financing anti-fracking propaganda and Russia Today, the now banned TV channel, which was Putin’s mouthpiece, was strongly anti-fracking. I can’t see Labour actually taking dirty money but they fit into the category of “useful idiots” who can’t see that we can’t rely on renewables without a reliable, dispatchable back-up supply.

The gas pipelines from Russia to Europe have suffered unprecedented damage. Russia denies involvement but IMHO it’s probably a barely veiled warning to the U.K. that if we can do this to Nordstream we can do it to the vital Norway to U.K. gas pipeline or any undersea gas pipeline or cable between the U.K. and mainland Europe. If you remember what Putin sanctioned in Salisbury then anything is possible. U.K. energy security has never been so important.
If the market accepts this interpretation then watch for a very rapid rebound.

The gas pipelines from Russia to Europe have suffered unprecedented damage. Russia denies involvement but IMHO it’s probably a barely veiled warning to the U.K. that if we can do this to Nordstream we can do it to the vital Norway to U.K. gas pipeline or any undersea gas pipeline or cable between the U.K. and mainland Europe. If you remember what Putin sanctioned in Salisbury then anything is possible. U.K. energy security has never been so important.

The Telegraph report this morning that the government is considering putting the proceeds of fracking into a Norway style Sovereign Wealth Fund that will be used to invest in other U.K. projects. Not sure how this effects the SP but it at least shows the government is still very much on the case when it comes to shale development.

I also see that big banks are preparing for rolling blackouts this winter. If there are blackouts then Moggy will be able to point to fracking as a positive development in contrast to the ridiculous Luddite policies of the greens and sadly most of the Labour Party. When it’s minus 2 degrees in February with no sunshine and no wind I can see the Greens calling for more renewables. Even King Canute would have thought it was mental.

On the negative side watch out for Kwasi Kwarteng to be linked to the profits made by the Odey hedge fund. Kwarteng was a past Oder employee. Odey have invested quite heavily in Igas, I hope there’s no negative insinuations about the government’s support for fracking.

The Telegraph report this morning that the government is considering putting the proceeds of fracking into a Norway style Sovereign Wealth Fund that will be used to invest in other U.K. projects. Not sure how this effects the SP but it at least shows the government is still very much on the case when it comes to shale development.

I also see that big banks are preparing for rolling blackouts this winter. If there are blackouts then Moggy will be able to point to fracking as a positive development in contrast to the ridiculous Luddite policies of the greens and sadly most of the Labour Party. When it’s minus 2 degrees in February with no sunshine and no wind I can see the Greens calling for more renewables. Even King Canute would have thought it was mental.

On the negative side watch out for Kwasi Kwarteng to be linked to the profits made by the Odey hedge fund. Kwarteng was a past Oder employee. Odey have invested quite heavily in Igas, I hope there’s no negative insinuations about the support for fracking.

The Guardian reports that The government “is considering designating shale gas sites as nationally important infrastructure, potentially cutting out local communities. ……This means they would bypass normal local planning requirements……..The designations usually apply to infrastructure such as roads, airports and energy sites.”

The government say they will compensate local communities but won’t allow hysterical Ludditism.

Seems to me this will be the only way to achieve any significant production in the next 12 to 18 months and even so it will require considerable bottle to push it through. Let’s hope for the company’s future and the country’s that they succeed.

The Guardian reports that The government “is considering designating shale gas sites as nationally important infrastructure, potentially cutting out local communities. ……This means they would bypass normal local planning requirements……..The designations usually apply to infrastructure such as roads, airports and energy sites.”

The government say they will compensate local communities but won’t allow hysterical Ludditism.

Seems to me this will be the only way to achieve any significant production in the next 12 to 18 months and even so it will require considerable bottle to push it through. Let’s hope for the company’s future and the country’s that they succeed.

Firstly God Save the Memory of the Queen. She was truly an example to us all of duty and service.

Just to outline what the report says, the downside of the energy bill support announced yesterday is that there is now less incentive to reduce gas use and …..”The less UK households reduce their energy demand, the greater demands placed on others… there is simply not enough energy to go round, which would require rationing or increase the risk of blackouts,” this from the influential institute of fiscal studies.
On top of this demand from China has been curtailed by COVID lockdowns and drought. China is one of the biggest importers of LNG. When they return to full economic activity the world market for gas will get worse.
This ain’t over, not by a long chalk.

The Telegraph has got an inside track.
The policy change will be good but not brilliant.
Removal of ban on fracking and freedom for firms to ask for planning permission. Firms can offer 25% reduction in bills to local people if they agree to development. BUT decisions remain within local government control at least in the first instance. No new legislation for these changes required as they just require alterations in government regulations. In my opinion it will take a few more billions draining out of the coffers before the government take charge of the drilling permissions. In my opinion, ample compensation, yes, paid for by companies, but illogical green resistance,no.

The Telegraph has got an inside track.
The policy change will be good but not brilliant.
Removal of ban on fracking and freedom for firms to ask for planning permission. Firms can offer 25% reduction in bills to local people if they agree to development. BUT decisions remain within local government control at least in the first instance. No new legislation for these changes required as they just require alterations in government regulations. In my opinion it will take a few more billions draining out of the coffers before the government take charge of the drilling permissions. In my opinion, ample compensation, yes, paid for by companies, but illogical green resistance,no.

UJO have commissioned a CPR on some of its assets including Wressle and this report, which will independently estimate UJO’s resources at various levels of probability, is due out by the end of September. This report can be read across to Egdon’s potential resources. Obviously tomorrow’s announcement of “shovel ready” responses to U.K. energy supply will be the big mover but the CPR may also be helpful.

She said “Spades in the ground so that people do not face high energy bills” (or similar). I wonder what she could be referring to?