Member Info for MarktheSpark

Maybe tangential to EDR but relevant to energy policy generally. I read on Drill or Drop that the Grid accepted electricity from Ratcliffe 3 (coal) at £1494/ MWh (13:30:00 PM) yesterday The grid also issued a shortage warning, a Capacity Margin Notice, that is triggered automatically four hours ahead of real-time based on specific industry data about the system’s safety margin. The notice was quickly cancelled by the Grid but an illustration provided by the Grid suggests that one automatic criteria may be that there will be less than 500 megawatts of buffer capacity. If that is the case and the temperature hasn’t got to freezing yet we are in for a grim winter.

I read on Drill or Drop that the Grid accepted electricity from Ratcliffe 3 (coal) already accepted at £1494/ MWh (13:30:00 PM) this afternoon. The grid also issued a shortage warning, a Capacity Margin Notice, that is triggered automatically four hours ahead of real-time based on specific industry data about the system’s safety margin. The notice was quickly cancelled by the Grid but an illustration provided by the Grid suggests that one criteria may be that there is l less than 500 megawatts of buffer capacity. If that is the case and the temperature hasn’t got to freezing yet we are in for a grim winter.

I read that a strike begins tomorrow at Farley refinery, with the risk of fuel shortages in the U.K. . There is an article in the Mail and other small references when I Google but no widespread media coverage. Has the dispute been settled, anyone know?

The long range weather forecast for December (within wide limits of reliability) is for a “blocking pattern” with high pressure stationary over the U.K. for longish periods, that means cold nights especially in the North of England. The middle of December is anyway a period of peal electricity and gas demand as almost everyone’s at work. So it looks like December may be the first real test of our winter preparedness. And all that gas is under the East Midlands waiting to be harvested.

Advice from Sunak & Hunt, if you’re struggling to walk faster, then the best thing to do is cut one of your toes off. Jeremy Hunt has said he agrees with Liz Truss that the answer to our economic woes is more economic growth; he also says the energy subsidies to households will cost as much as the cost of the NHS. So, what do they do, ban fracking which could be a massive tax revenue raiser, lower imports and stimulate economic growth generally. Doh.

The point is that diesel over £2 puts the spotlight on the energy crisis and anything that does that gets the media, the public, and politicians thinking about energy supply and energy security. Focussing on energy security will eventually lead to a rethink about fracking.

By the way it’s interesting to note that many of those who wring their hands with moral outrage at Qatar hosting the World Cup conveniently forget they use Qatari LNG supply. Hypocrites.

Title should have been “National Fuel Crisis” and “before Christmas”.

The Daily Mail report that diesel is already over £2 on motorways and expected to rise to that level across the country possibly before Some analysts have raised the possibility of rationing

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11372705/Britons-face-pain-pumps-experts-fear-price-diesel-hit-record-2-litre-soon.html

Brent crude up 3% today on rumours of China weakening their zero COVID policy, so on that trend, diesel at over £2 in the next fortnight. All drivers will notice that psychologically important milestone, questions will begin to be asked in the Red Tops and in Parliament. Energy policy always has 4 strands,
1. Environment, 2. Price, 3. Reliability, 4. Security. Sunak should have stayed away from COP (which is really countries marking their green homework they set themselves), consider 2, 3 and 4 and get on with fixing the real energy emergency which is how we’re going to get through the next two winters,

Am I being dumb, the company said back in May . “The material cash flow generated has been transformational, enabling the Company to become debt free and funded for all near-term commitments in parallel with considering further growth opportunities.” .

Yes the fracking moratorium is depressing, but the continuing output from Wressle must be good, judging from other companies’ reports and the future seems favourable given they are planning to pipe off gas (to reduce the need for flaring) which will enable them to uncork more of Wressle’s resources. I don’t really understand their North Sea assets but presumably there is shedloads of oil company money about looking for a windfall tax getout. My biggest worry would be a takeover big which would price in at below the breakeven point for us small investors. What’s not to like.

Sorry to steal your material but, Yes, the cnbc article you cite includes a quote by the CEO of BP who says “Energy prices “are approaching unaffordability,” with some people already “spending 50% of their disposable income on energy or higher,”.

The other part of the article says basically , if you think Winter 2022 will be bad then Winter 2023 will be worse because it will be difficult to refill gas storage with very depleted supply from Russia. There is also a reference to possible civil disturbance.

It seems like the only thing that is saving us no2 is reduced demand for oil and LNG From China due to the economic constraints of Zero COVID policy. A guy on Bloomberg said today, “just imagine what will happen to the oil and gas market the day China announces, or the the media get a whiff, that the zero covid policy is ending” he’s absolutely right it’s mayhem.

Today Russia is blaming the U.K. for the damage to the Nordstream pipeline and “considering further action”. What action could that be, well firstly they could completely cut off processed diesel supplies to the U.K. earlier than expected. Russian exports are 18% of our supplies. Diesel prices are already heading up in anticipation of the bans, so diesel well north of 2.25 soon and a top up for food inflation since 25% of all lorry movements in the. U.K. are food related.

Alternatively there could be “accidental” damage to the U.K. / Norway gas pipeline which supplies 33% of our gas. So the edge of war and major electricity & gas blackouts in the U.K.

And Rishi Sunak has just put a moratorium on fracking! Doh.

Today the official long term weather predictions are that the hoped for mild winter (December to February) is unlikely and that periods of high pressure with low wind speeds and cold temperatures are on the cards. John Pettigrew, the head of the National Grid says a period of rolling blackouts, if we get a cold winter, is a “possibility” which is probably as alarmist as he’s allowed to be.
So if you’re a diesel consumer and you’ve got a can handy, fill it up and remember to darn those woolly jumpers.

Today Russia is blaming the U.K. for the damage to the Nordstream pipeline and “considering further action”. What action could that be, well firstly they could completely cut off processed diesel supplies to the U.K. earlier than expected. Russian exports are 18% of our supplies. Diesel prices are already heading up in anticipation of the bans, so diesel well north of 2.25 soon and a top up for food inflation since 25% of all lorry movements in the. U.K. are food related.

Alternatively there could be “accidental” damage to the U.K. / Norway gas pipeline which supplies 33% of our gas. So the edge of war and major electricity & gas blackouts in the U.K.

And Rishi Sunak has just put a moratorium on fracking! Doh.

Today the official long term weather predictions are that the hoped for mild winter (December to February) is unlikely and that periods of high pressure with low wind speeds and cold temperatures are on the cards. John Pettigrew, the head of the National Grid says a period of rolling blackouts, if we get a cold winter, is a “possibility” which is probably as alarmist as he’s allowed to be.
So if you’re a diesel consumer and you’ve got a can handy, fill it up and remember to darn those woolly jumpers

If I’ve read it right there will be a ban on imports of diesel from Russia as of early February 2023 in solidarity withUkraine. BUT currently we import 18% of our diesel from refineries in Russia. I hesitate to say this is true because it doesn’t seem to have been picked up by the mainstream media and given the awful effect this would have on lorry deliveries etc you would have thought it would make some headlines. The U.K. and the EU have insufficient refinery capacity to fill the gap. I suspect the government is hoping some ceasefire will be negotiated in the interim period.

Overall yet more evidence that energy security needs to be pushed up the government’s policy agenda.

Can’t resist it. Judging by Boris’ s track record it’s the last time he’s pulled out in his adult life.

Apologies for my very black sense of humour. I really think some of these scenarios are possible but I certainly didn’t mean to cause offence. My mind is no more warped than average.

Just for fun. My pre - Halloween worst case calendar for 2022-23 darker scenarios omitted so as not to frighten the nervous…..
November 2022 – Putin again notes the vulnerability of U.K.-Norway gas pipeline to “accidental damage”. Europe fails to reach agreement on gas import price cap leading to price battle for imported LNG.
December 2022 – shortage of diesel due to ban on diesel imports from Russia and limited refinery capacity across Europe. Diesel prices rise about £2.20 a litre, concern about lorry delivery problems pushing up food prices and possible shortages in the supermarkets. Lorry drivers take industrial action due to rising costs.
January 2023 – 3 hour rolling blackouts of electricity due to import problems and high pressure system over the U.K. meaning both wind and solar combined contribute less than 15% of our electricity supply. 50% increase in winter deaths of the elderly due to cold homes.
February 2023 – crisis worsens with public unrest and widespread large public demonstrations. Consideration of a national coalition government. Cobra committee in frequent session. Emergency measures such as warm sanctuaries in libraries and town halls in frequent use.
March 2023 – gradual recovery as Spring approaches, government promises to foster development of shale gas portraying it as a new initiative.

Just for fun. My pre - Halloween worst case calendar for 2022-23 darker scenarios omitted so as not to frighten the nervous…..
November 2022 – Putin again notes the vulnerability of U.K.-Norway gas pipeline to “accidental damage”. Europe fails to reach agreement on gas import price cap leading to price battle for imported LNG.
December 2022 – shortage of diesel due to ban on diesel imports from Russia and limited refinery capacity across Europe. Diesel prices rise about £2.20 a litre, concern about lorry delivery problems pushing up food prices and possible shortages in the supermarkets. Lorry drivers take industrial action due to rising costs.
January 2023 – 3 hour rolling blackouts of electricity due to import problems and high pressure system over the U.K. meaning both wind and solar combined contribute less than 15% of our electricity supply. 50% increase in winter deaths of the elderly due to cold homes.
February 2023 – crisis worsens with public unrest and widespread large public demonstrations. Consideration of a national coalition government. Cobra committee in frequent session. Emergency measures such as warm sanctuaries in libraries and town halls in frequent use.
March 2023 – gradual recovery as Spring approaches, government promises to foster development of shale gas portraying it as a new initiative.

The lettuce has won!

Forget Truss (the lettuce will win), here are just a few news items relevant to the fracking debate….
1. China has today relaxed its COVID immigration rules which may well be a sign of relaxing the zero COVID strategy generally, this signals increased world demand for LNG with implications for higher gas prices in the U.K. and the EU.
2. Russia has fired a missile in the vicinity of an RAF unarmed reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace, in other words raising the international temperature yet again. How far is it from this to an “accidental” cutting of the U.K. -Norway gas pipeline which provides a major part of our gas supply. Putin keeps upping the ante and it’s dangerous.
3. The price of Diesel fuel in particular will continue to rise. Whatever the supply of crude oil, a major constraint on diesel supply is limited refinery capacity across Europe. Until now diesel has been imported in large quantities from Russian refineries but from the end of the year there will be a ban on purchasing Russian supplies, producing U.K. shortages which will increase inflation.

I am deeply disappointed that the Labour Party has chosen populism and polititical advantage over the needs of their constituents.