Member Info for MarktheSpark

Looks like the market has forgotten that Egdon has interests in fracking PEDLs, I guess they will remember tomorrow after a supportive RNS message from the company.

Well Rizo, the boot’s on the other fracking foot now pal.

Lino, (or can I call you Oil Cloth....that’s a joke for the over 60’s), I really don’t know why I bother but Igas production is over 2200 barrels (400,000 litres) a day which would be a pretty big garage turnover.

Whoever said anything about Igas going into the main market - just your fantasy.

Why can’t they be trusted, apart from a certain now long departed CEO, they seem to have played a blinder in attracting external investment and recovering from setbacks which were largely not of there own making.

Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz which carries 18 million barrels of oil a day in tankered crude. If it becomes a reality then leave your car at home it’s £2.50 a litre, queues at the pumps. Unlikely as it would provoke a military backlash but just the threat will create a ris

Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Dyson...

All huge successes just like BIG SHALE...

Shale has doubled US production of oil and and gas and played a large part in rescuing their economy from the after-effects of the 2008 financial crisis while at the same time reducing their CO2 emissions. But the US has only20% of the world’s resources so there is plenty of time for others to catch up. At the same time 2 billion people in India and China are moving up the economic ladder and will be demanding Western standards of living and energy usage. In China the political priority is not climate change but urban pollution which will be addressed by a switch from coal to natural gas, with consequent huge increases in demand for imported LNG. In other words the future is gas.

Bernstein the energy consultancy predict that crude oil is heading towards $150 because of underinvestment by the oil majors. Apparently 15 companies account for the majority of the world's oil reserves, and only two — Exxon and BP — are showing increased investment in this area.

That of course means that Igas will be profitable without ever going near shale gas. Shale is just a freebie.

Also a recent RNS message mentioned the beginning of production at Albury in H2 which has capacity of 1.5 mmcfd of conventional gas. This will have to be compressed and tankered away but will make a contribution to revenue. They also have injection projects ongoing at Stockbridge and Welton aimed at maintaining or improving flow from those assets.

Mainly of course, if the Cuadrilla exploration proves successful if will significantly revalue all shale assets nationwide.

Ruiz, Presumably if oil takes a short term hit, that implies medium and long term oil will continue it�s relentless trend upwards so, as you suggest, it�s time to move into Igas and Egdon in a big way. Thanks for the advice. Well done Pal.

Absolutely, it has....but what about the future?

Nobody can possibly know, just my guess, the first step is to consider the possible reaction to the Cuadrilla exploration. If that fails then SP falls 25% ish. If it succeeds and they find decent amounts of gas then it revalues all shale assets nationwide and I would hope to see a near doubling of the SP over the next 12 months. Igas also has it�s conventional assets with production costs relatively low so the income stream increases when they next hedge their output due to rising crude prices.. They are also about to start producing small amounts of conventional gas (can�t remember where) which will again be helpful. I realistic fear is that they will be sold off to a larger concern by their financial backers just as it gets interesting. You can factor in 101 other variables, geopolitical, supply constraints, Far East demand etc.

Nobody can possibly know, just my guess, the first step is to consider the possible reaction to the Cuadrilla exploration near Blackpool. If that fails then the SP drops over 25%. If the exploration succeeds and they find decent amounts of gas then it revalues all shale assets nationwide and I would hope for the SP to nearly double over the next 12 months. Igas also has it�s conventional assets with production costs relatively low so the income stream increases when they next hedge their output due to rising crude prices.. They are also due to start producing small amounts of conventional gas (can�t remember where) which will again be helpful. I realistic fear is that they will be sold off to a larger concern by their financial backers just as it gets interesting. You can factor in 101 other variables, geopolitical, supply constraints, Far East demand etc.

Nobody can possibly know, just my guess, the first step is to consider the possible reaction to the Cuadrilla exploration near Blackpool. If that fails then the SP drops over 25%. If the exploration succeeds and they find decent amounts of gas then it revalues all shale assets nationwide and I would hope for the SP to nearly double over the next 12 months. Igas also has it�s conventional assets with production costs relatively low so the income stream increases when they next hedge their output due to rising crude prices.. They are also due to start producing small amounts of conventional gas (can�t remember where) which will again be helpful. I realistic fear is that they will be sold off to a larger concern by their financial backers just as it gets interesting. You can factor in 101 other variables, geopolitical, supply constraints, Far East demand etc.

A bit of history - in their Winter 2016/ 17 Outlook Report the Grid said ....there is an expectation that LNG availability in NW Europe will remain high. BUT today�s 2017/18 winter review says ....supplies of LNG this winter were the lowest for many years. LNG flowed to markets in Asia instead, where it attracted a higher price......Grain and Dragon received four cargoes from the new Yamal terminal on the Russian Arctic coast....... For the week starting 26th February (Beast from the East) 25% of UK electricity was generated from coal fired power stations, all of which are planned to close. So that�s reassuring, our energy security in cold snaps depends on Russia and disappearing coal-fired stations.

A bit of history - in their Winter 2016/ 17 Outlook Report the Grid said �....there is an expectation that LNG availability in NW Europe will remain high. � BUT today�s 2017/18 winter review says �....supplies of LNG this winter were the lowest for many years. LNG flowed to markets in Asia instead, where it attracted a higher price......Grain and Dragon received four cargoes from the new Yamal terminal on the Russian Arctic coast.......� For the week starting 26th February (Beast from the East) 25% of UK electricity was generated from coal fired power stations, all of which are planned to close. So that�s reassuring, our energy security in cold snaps depends on Russia and disappearing coal-fired stations.

Total nonsense - the SP is very much influenced by prospects as well as current activity so the closer we get to first shale gas from Cuadrilla the more the price will rise. Quite how electric cars will will become �the norm overnight� is beyond me - some sort of technological fairy grandmother? More electric cars will need more electricity and a lot of that will come from new CCGT stations. Anyone who thinks it can come from renewables and/or batteries is mistaken as for every megawatt of intermittent renewables we need a reliable backup such as CCGT to cover windless and dark periods. Batteries arrays at present only last a few hours. Plastic waste is a problem but the vast majority of it in the oceans comes from Africa where understandably the waste management infrastructure is underdeveloped.

Up 20% in a little over a fortnight, better than a slap in the belly with a wet kipper!

Three bits of overlapping news. The Consultancy Energy Aspects have said that Europe will have difficulty making the transition away from the remaining coal powered stations because there isn�t enough gas in the system at the right (low) price. Depleted gas stores after the coldest winter since 2012, coupled with pipeline constraints on flows from Russia and Norway, have driven prices to their highest level in at least five years. The recent energy bill hikes look like just the beginning. Also due out around now is the National Grid�s Winter Review for last winter which will give their account of the energy crisis caused by the relatively short �Beast from the East� cold spell, and any lessons learnt. But in the meantime the power company SSE has started work on a new �350million CCGT station in Lincolnshire even though they don�t have a contract to cover the cost. I guess they must be pretty confident that there will be hole somewhere in UK electricity supplies in 3 or 4 years time and that they will be ready to negotiate a decent return for their investment. So all in all it looks like we�re back on the starting line for a second round of the �dash for gas�.

As far as I can see we are still waiting for the company to put in another planning application. They said they would do this in their last RNS message and that the new application would address the issues raised by the planning inspector when the last application was rejected. So it�s a wait and see game. In the meantime Q3 is the timeframe for first gas from Cuadrilla at Blackpool, which if successful would show a decent SP increase for all companies with shale assets.

SP just hit 100p on Google Finance - only another number but good to see anyway.

Nord Stream 2 is a proposed new gas pipeline from Russia into Europe which will bypass Ukraine. It involves investment from various large European energy companies and is welcomed by Eastern European countries plus Germany as it might lead to cheaper and more reliable supplies from Russia. Germany is between a rock and a hard place in that they need Russian gas but also object to Russian behaviour in the Crimea and really would prefer to keep Putin at arm�s length. BUT the USA objects to the project on the pretext that it will provide Russia with the opportunity to lay listening dvivces on the Baltic seabed. More likely they object to increasing Russian economic power in Europe and perhaps hope to support LNG sales from the US into Europe. Trump has threatened sanctions against companies involved in the project. The issue has been rumbling around a while but threatens to flare up if Donald gets an itchy Twitter finger. What�s this got to do with IGAS, well it�s part of the background to the Government�s support for shale gas, the more we are self-sufficient the less these political squabbles effect the UK�s gas security.