Member Info for MarkGo

Hi Buffa

I do respect the points you make. As I mentioned analysts price targets in my post, I just wanted to respond by stating my point in doing so. All Analysts were positive after the conference call and their grilling of Looney and the Chief Finance Officer. All seemed satisfied and happy with the results and their Q&A.

Regardless of the differential in how each financial institution's energy sector specialist, calculates share price targets over the next 12 months, all raised their target prices. The actual targets, which I do recognise varies, was not the point. It was positive sentiment after the results.

In my opinion, I do believe that these energy sector analysts have much more of an understanding and comprehension of the financial data and strategic detail than certainly me, or the majority of other private investors. This is evident in their technical questioning of the board. That said, I do agree with you that the actual specific targets are educated guesswork.

Mark

Morning all

Stockready1. Thanks and excellent posts from you as usual.
Analysts who were present at yesterday's earnings call and who questioned Looney and the CFO have this morning all raised their share price targets and all recommend ' buy'. and I know their will be more in the next few days. So all looking great as far as the presentation of the results.

Iran are already selling pre-sanction levels of oil daily. Their ability to ramp up production, if sanctions are lifted, is in doubt.
I agree with you that there will be a reaction to the price of oil if sanctions are lifted but only temporary caused by traders and soon to be reversed as China and others current Iranian supply would have to be substituted if Iran are allowed to sell on the open market.... I know you know this, I'm just typing out my thoughts !!

meoryou. Like you, I am an avid reader of the Earnings Call Transcript and I recommend that any investor spend some time reading through the transcript, especially the Q&A session with the Financial institution's analysts, to inform yourselves of all aspects of the business that you are invested in.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/02/08/bp-bp-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcript/

Windfall taxes........ To those still posting about windfall taxes. Please stop worrying about something that is 100% NOT going to happen. How many times has the government got to repeat its not going to apply windfall taxes before those posting about WT's stop worrying.

If you are invested in BP, this is now the time to sit back, ignore daily weekly noise and share price movements and benefit from the change in sentiment towards BP.

Great times ahead.

Have a great day.

Mark

Phil

Today's disappointing share price movement had nothing to do with BP solely. It was across all oil super majors and due to oil traders taking profits on the recent oil rise.

Negotiations are taking place between the US and Iran to agree a new nuclear agreement. If there is agreement, sanctions could be lifted and Iran could be allowed to sell their oil legally again. This is what is taming the oil rise and subsequently oilers share prices. All down today but only temporarily. So don't be too disappointed. BP's share price will be back on track very soon.

Iran have been selling nearly pre sanction levels of oil anyway, through intermediaries, to China and India so if allowed to sell legally this would not increase supply that much. They would benefit from higher legal prices but global supply would remain tight. The price of oil will rise regardless and so will share prices.

Have a great night

Mark

bp's fourth quarter and full year 2021 results and update on strategic progress webcast replay

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-presentations/quarterly-results-and-webcast.html

Hi Stocks

Just to add to your great 'best in 8 years' post. I agree with your view of much more to come going forward.

Below are the average prices for brent 2021.

We did not push out of the $60's until June with the average over the year just $71. We start this Jan 2022 with an average of $89 against Jan 2021 average of $54.

Prices may fluctuate with Iran, Ukraine or other unknowns but I fail to see how next year, with supply and demand issues, will not be the best performance in the last 9 years by a very large margin from this year.

Happy times ahead.

Mark

Dec 21 74.17
Nov 21 81.05
Oct 21 83.54
Sep 21 74.49
Aug 21 70.75
Jul 21 75.17
Jun 21 73.16
May 21 68.53
Apr 21 64.81
Mar 21 65.41
Feb 21 62.28
Jan 21 54.77
Dec 20 49.99

Good morning all.

Regarding dividends. There are many alternative investments that provide higher dividends than BP and the option for all investors is to reinvest in those alternative companies. The question is do those companies come with the same possibility of capital growth through an increase in their share price ? Personally, I do not see a better opportunity than BP.

Jam today or jam tomorrow ?. I am happy to forego a meaningful increase in the dividend as long as the company is investing in future growth. Buybacks, paying down debt and investment all reward investors in the medium to long term. With consistent ongoing progress in the value of the company, I am happy to gain capital rather than income with the option of selling my, increasing in value, shares should I require an income. At some point there will be a requirement to increase the dividend beyond current announcements but, for now, I am happy with the strategy.

Have a great day.

Mark

From no increase in dividends until 2025, this was revised in Q2 2021 to 4% increase per year until 2025 with the increase of 4% applied in Q2 2021. I would expect Q2 2022 will see this years increase ( maybe Q1 ) .

A long game, market beating set of adequate results for the current climate. The market reaction seems positive.

Mark

Just to end the night

BP p.l.c. | NYSE
$33.34
0.46 (+1.40%)
4:00 PM 02/07/22
Post-Market: $33.75 +0.41 (+1.23%)
Up 1.23% AFTER HOURS AND RISING ATM

1 adr share ÷ 6 - $ to £ Converts to £4.16 !!!

See you tomorrow.

Mark

Hi meoryou

Good posts to mat from you and bumble.

Agree on your view on Buybacks too. Perfectly logical. While undervalued, buybacks are my preference. When, not if, we get to a level where the share price has risen to an opinion of overvalued then buybacks become less attractive and should be adjusted accordingly.

That said, if BP rises to a level where it's viewed as overvalued I guess most if us will happy with the share price would be at by that time.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

GLA

Mark

Hi BPinvestor.

I hope all's well with you.. To be honest, I had to check that 25% was a correct percentage. An easy mistake to make with all the data we try to remember.

In regard to buybacks, I know there is a view that buybacks are disliked by investors and many would rather opt for increased dividends as an alternative. This is understandable but not my preference.

The buyback programmes of all the oil majors are being massively increased. BP tomorrow will probably announce an increase of billions in their buyback programme and that is great news for shareholders, in my opinion.

Oilers are on a roll now and will continue to do so. Recent buybacks served a purpose of taking up and cancelling those selling. Not enough to stop prices from falling but limiting the fall but now things have changed.

Sentiment has pivoted to positive. It was only a matter of time but now the buyers are back and buybacks will now super charge share price rises while we remain undervalued. Taking up supply in the short term thereby supporting share price rises and permanently removing the shares from the market. This will reward shareholders big time for long term holders.

Hoping for a fantastic results day tomorrow although, a beat or not, BP is rising like a Phoenix from the flames.

Great months, years ahead.

Mark

Buybacks. Each day

Just for information, buybacks are limited to 25% of the daily average volume traded.

Mark

Hi Happy

Thanks, and In agreement with your view. Great idea to email them and see how they justify solely targeting the immoral BP.

Looking forward to the results. After the other major's results, expectations will be high tomorrow.

Interesting times.

Have a great day

Mark

The Henry Jackson Society are a neo conservative , right wing, think tank. They are a pro US, anti Russian political organisation and although I am not surprised to see this 'story' in the right wing, Sunday Times I do not expect much notice will be taken on BP's so called immoral business dealing by anyone in power.

Exxon, Total, Shell and other oil majors have agreements with Russia and are drilling for Russia on their territory. American financial institutions, banks and many other multi nationals are working for and in Russia and profiting.

To single BP out is a nonsense.

Look at the dips today, or any other days as delaying the inevitable rise coming.

Have a great day

Mark

Hi Stockready1

Always good to read a post from you and justification for your positive, consistent position and opinion on BP.

Rotation from growth to value certainly at play here. To be honest, I did not expect this to move until the global uncertainties were clearer but happy to have been too cautious on timeframes.

Great times and rewards ahead.

Great weekend everyone.

Mark

Hi NSS, Jakers & all.

Point taken and I would like to apologise for any offence caused by my poor attempt twice, at dark humour.

I do recognise the reality of life for some in our unequal society. My posts were a mistake and my apology is genuine.

On BP and the results, it would be a mistake, also in my opinion, to raise the dividend beyond the annual 4% increase, just for now.

Looking after the shareholder's interests is more than just paying dividends. Personally, I would prefer the free cash was utilised by increasing the transition investment but only if ' best of class' opportunities were available. At Q2 Looney stated that in just one quarter they looked at 50GW of opportunities to invest in. If I recall rightly, only 2GW measured up to their highest quality / profitability. So it is also reassuring to know that there is no green investment rush for green investment sake just to meet targets.

Next, debt reduction and buybacks, which serm boring and the wrong direction by some investors, would be my next preferable priority for free cash. Billions in debt reduction along side billions in shares cancelled each year ( maybe $6 billion in 2022 ) . You just have to do the maths and you will see what a golden investment BP is.

Slowly but surely, quarter by quarter, BP is transforming itself into a lean, black and green, integrated cash monster. Jam tomorrow maybe, but this is why BP is such a buy still at todays share price and I am happy to forego dividend rises now for a much bigger reward in years to come.

Whatever direction the free cash goes, in the long term, will be beneficial to shareholders.

Great evening all.

Mark

Hi Happy

Excellent summary thanks.

Mark

Gary & Charlie

Take it easy. Why so serious guys. Surely you could see it was a ( failed it seems ) attempt a humourous generalisation. Apologies if you were offended.

I do wonder, however, how much of a problem actually exists in our country with so called ' fuel poverty' or those who are classified as ' living in adverse poverty ' ( that apparently is 18% of the population. )

I see ' living in adverse poverty' as a homeless family begging on the streets of Bangladesh or a Ethiopian child starving to death with flies over the poor soul's face. Not someone who is living the dream in our country, employed, unemployed, retired, disabled or other.

Generous welfare payments and state pensions seem adequate enough for many to make a lifestyle decision to remain unemployed or retire early when there is an employment crisis in this country. Millions of vacancies remain unfilled yet there any millions claiming job seekers allowance !!! Where are these millions actually seeking jobs ???

Its all relevant. Maybe those moaning now in regard to fuel price increases should take a different view. For years people have benefited from cheap energy but because discounted energy became the norm and now, probably temporarily, energy has spiked they are whinging.

I guess that the whinging can be partly explained as it is a fact that whinging increases with age.

Put another layer on and stop whinging. You live in a mild country. Poland temperature can drop to MINUS 20 in January and February......Now there would be a reason to moan.

I'm off for a winter walk in my T-shirt to the woods.

Mark

BP is an oil major which has underperformed the COVID equities recovery until the past months. On a performance basis 2022 is showing a clear divergence between the fortunes of Growth companies such as ARKK and equities indices such as SPY versus targeted undervalued companies represented by BP (up almost +20% year to date). We do not believe BP's ~20% Rosneft ownership is a significant risk, and we expect the Ukraine potential conflict to mainly affect Russian banks and technology companies. BP is estimated to generate very robust EPS this year on the back of strong oil prices and is set to significantly outperform its earnings per share from 2018 and 2019 when the company was trading around $40/share. At a conservative 9x P/E ratio the stock is set to trade above $38/share by year end based on earnings. We believe a targeted Value strategy where an investor can quantify historic underpricing is the best way to take advantage of the historic rotation from Growth to Value. We assign BP a Buy rating and are targeting a price of $38/share by year end.

BP owns a 19.75% share of Rosneft. BP nominates two representatives to Rosneft's board of directors, namely the BP CEO Bernard Looney and former BP CEO Robert Dudley. Rosneft is a Russian integrated energy company headquartered in Moscow and the third largest Russian company as measured by revenue. Rosneft is also the largest refining company in the Russian Federation. The company's core activities include hydrocarbon prospecting and exploration, production of oil, gas and gas condensate, implementation of offshore field development projects, refining, sales of oil, gas and refined products.

Given the simmering potential conflict in Ukraine, investors might be rightfully so worried regarding the Rosneft risk applicable to BP's balance sheet and revenue. The general fear is that Rosneft's oil and gas exports would be banned, severely curtailing its profitability in the short term. The reality is different and much more nuanced. Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas, and with prices already having hit multi-year highs and an accelerating inflation, cutting off Russian energy imports would be a self-inflicted shot in the foot, especially when retail consumers are grappling with paying their energy bills. The more palatable solution that is currently discussed is around cutting Russia out of Swift, the international payments system, limiting Russian banks' ability to convert currencies on the international markets and imposing export controls on advanced technologies used in aviation, semiconductors and other components. This solution would inflict a heavy long-term blow to the Russian economy, while at the same time protecting the European interests around energy imports and availability of a scarce resource at an acceptable economic price.

We believe that any potential Russia-Ukraine conflict will not affect the critical Russian energy supply to Europe and it would represent more of a political posturing around Russia's sphere of influence and its ability to dictate what NATO is able to do in its back yard. None of the parties in this game of war would stand to win anything from a protracted conflict.

In full agreement.

Ofgem meet on the 6th February to agree the energy cap lift for April so the media with be full of how much energy bills will increase in April, just two days before our results and after Shell's.

'Fuel poverty' 'heat or eat' news interviews of token old and the poor, complaining about not being able to afford to turn on their one bar electric heater, and so, having to just rely on the heat from their 40 a day cigarette habit and the demand for windfall taxes will be all over the place.

So I also hope results are played down, even another convenient loss as at Q3 with COP26 in town, would be welcome at this time.

I am quite confident that the board will know, better than me, how best to deal with this !!!

Looking forward to ExxonMobil results later who will not be constrained by the same and hoping Shell set the right tone.

Great day everyone

Mark