Member Info for MarkGo

.....and now back up

Hi all

Don't be too concerned about the current volatility in the oil market or share prices. Oil traders will take profits as the price pushes higher causing a temporary retrace but oil demand is strong and will grow further in the months to come.

I mentioned previously that Iran's possible oil supply, should sanctions be lifted, will make little difference to the price of oil. Understand that Iran already sells near maximum priduction capacity, at a discounted rate, to the far east. So very little change to global oil supply if sanctions are lifted. More dollars per barrel for Iran not more barrels.

The Russian Ukrainian issue will go on for weeks, also causing volatility. Why should Russia withdraw troops from its own territory prior to negotiations ?. The West have been shown in the past not to be trusted and vice versa, so until progress is made in negotiations, Putin's troops will keep western minds focused on the need for progress.

I expect this side show in BP's progress to fizzle out by April. ( just in time for the next worry, Evergrande's debt) Putin will get his concessions, assurances will be given over Eastern Ukraine and a nod and a wink regarding Ukraine never joining Nato. With or without an Iranian deal, tight supply and higher demand will see BP rise.

Ex dividend day today. Will we see a drop ? I expect any drop will recovery very quickly. Market uncertainty against higher oil. All things being equal I would guess a higher finish by end of week.

Have a great day

Mark

If you needed are further evidence of the direction of the price of oil going forward, Brent is now back up to over $95pb, this with concerns over conflict starting to subside, possible Iranian sanctions being lifted on their Oil yet we are nearing Monday's 'conflict' highs.

Its just a matter of time before this feeds through to the share price.

Mark

Hi again CP

I have also been buying recently BP and Shell. There is so much more to come in regard to the share price this year and beyond that a few pence or percentage points is really irrelevant. So you've now bagged the dividend and within months I expect the gain in your capital to be many times that dividend.

Exciting time to be invested in BP.

Have a great day

Mark

I'm not sure that it's possible to time the market with current circumstances. Generally, stocks rise pre ex dividend day and fall back ex dividend but we are already down 5% since last Friday with the dividend only approx 1% this quarter .

Nearly every oil major has fallen in recent days. Oil has recovered from profit taking on Monday and is now back up to $94.7 yet oiler remain depressed. In my opinion it is only a matter of time before this matter corrects itself. This could happen anytime so a total gamble in my opinion if you buy now or wait.

Good luck either way.

Mark

EmeraldCarrots

So in your change of opinion from strong sell, and anyone holding BP needing their heads examined a few days ago, to now BP being a hold with your week end target of 395. you demonstrate, once again your utter meaningless and stupidity in your posts. "WW3 on hold" is beyond nonsense.

Why not just accept that you got your timing wrong in selling out at 360ish rather than keep posting rubbish that has no value to anyone. We all make investment timing mistakes, I know I have. Doodle on some paper or do something else that does not require sensible investors to have to read your mind bilge please.

Lately there has been no point to your posts. Get over your misjudgement. By all mean post something of value to readers and please stop rehashing versions of your repetitive doom mongering.

I recall a time, not that long ago, when your posts had some real interest and value.

WW3 on hold....get a grip mate.

Mark

Green shoots but red today.

Across the pond all oil majors are down premarket with oil still at $94+. A probably further drop when the US markets open before the sector recovers.

Nice post Bumble, I especially liked the root vegetable comment but wait.......

The Sun " Breaking News "

Russia set to invade Ukraine at 1AM tomorrow with massive missile blitz and 200,000 troops, US intelligence claims

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17655287/russia-set-invade-ukraine-tomorrow/

So chins up Carrot and Caitlin, your hopes for death and destruction for personal gain may not be over.

Spights

Thanks mate for the links. You can read the FT article if you open it incognito.

Great quote from Looney in regard to the company.

“It’s going to be very concentrated, very high value,” he said. “It’s going to be beautiful.”

Just as I posted yesterday, the russian narrative of the west being defeated. First step to a victorious russian de-escalation.

As Moscow announces it's withdrawing some troops from the Ukrainian border, reaction from the country's foreign ministry.

Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on Telegram: "February 15, 2022 will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed. They have been disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired."

Early days but this is the beginning of the end.

Mark

Emerald

Maybe please consider why you feel the need to repeatedly post your negativity towards a company you are no longer invested in. You sold out, if I recall around 360, and since then you have become a bore. No one is interested in an ex-investors unbalanced nonsense. You sold out and BP's share price went north. Your gamble did not pay off. That's investing. No need for endless doom mongering please.

Good luck to you.

Stockready1

Hi mate and thank you for your post. I truly believe and agree with you that Putin's aims and intentions do not include invading and occupying Ukraine.
Regardless of how it seems, the risks, for very little benefit, are clear.

Putin has to push this to the brink and remain there to achieve his real political intentions. Intentions that are complex and do not need to be detailed and explained on this BP forum.Suffice to say our views are similar and I do not see any downside to BP with current events beyond short term market games. Brent is booming, now at $96+pb, UK government is vocally moving towards a position of energy independence with positive noises towards the riches and potential of our own North Sea for gas and oil. I believe we are now pivoting from net zero aspirational dreams to the wide awake reality of the world to the benefit of BP. Oil is not such a dirty word.

In regard to Russia/ Ukraine, you only have to read the massaging from the Kremlin. In short, a way forward through negotiations. While the uncertainty will continue for a number of weeks I see this period being a positive for BP and subsequently its share price over the next few months. Once again, look at the price of Brent.

Good luck to anyone brave enough to trade. I am remaining fully invested and adding to my holding during this period in the expectation of 450 being an easy achievable short term target.

All on my honest opinion.

Good luck all

Mark

Evraz dropped today mainly due to its demerger NOT due to Russian/Ukraine.

The West has to prepare for the improbable but Putin will NOT invade Ukraine. Why would he ?

He is bluffing and has used his military to achieve his political aims. Look at what's happening without one bullet being fired. Every western government is offering diplomatic concessions to Russia to avoid a conflict. He has gone from being a pariah to the centre of attention. The strong man of Russia taking on the west is how it will be framed in Russia.

Western governments are all stating that they now recognise Putin's concerns and to be honest I do too. This would never have happened without 130,000 troops on Ukraine's border and will resolve itself through diplomatic efforts and Putin will be seen as the victor by the Russian people in brnging the West, one by one, to his unusually long table. Putin may be many things but he is not a fool. Master tactician Yes, fool No.

This will soon be resolved. Share prices will recover and all the stupidly about Rosneft being nationalised history.

Meanwhile Brent is over $95pb as I type. Another 11m cheap buybacks today at an average of 404.7. So all in all, a great day for BP. Congratulations to those who sold and bought back on today's dip. I don't see the share price falling much further in the short term, if it all, I do however see the share price climbing beyond recent highs very quickly.

Good luck to all.

Mark

Ukraine quashes suggestion it could drop Nato plans

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/14/ukraine-quashes-suggestion-it-could-drop-nato-plans-to-avoid-war-with-russia-putin?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&s=03#Echobox=1644834021

Wiseowl41

Congratulations mate. We all deserve a reward and treat when things go when. I hope you book and enjoy a wonderful holiday due to the fruits of your investment.

Good luck

Mark

Stockready1

Hi again mate. Just briefly, great posts and a great call.

The silence of those critical of your posts is the past is deafening !!!! ??

Patience being rewarded. Happy times ahead.

Have a fantastic weekend Stocky and all.

Mark

(Reuters) - BP's interests in Rosneft rose to 22.03% in 2020 from 19.75% in 2019 due to the Russian oil firm's transactions in its own shares, the British energy company said in its annual report on Monday

A interesting contrairian bearish view on the price of Oil in the link below.

Citibank's Ed Morse sees oversupplied in the Oil market starting Q2. He is Citibank's global head of commodities research and explains why his outlook for oil is "slated toward the bearish side," He is advising clients to short the oil market.

An interesting side point..... Famed oil investor Pierre Andurand suggested inflation-adjusted oil prices are relatively low by historic standards. The 2008 high of $147/b would equate to $222/b today !!

As interesting view and watch.

Mark

https://cdn-mobapi.bloomberg.com/wssmobile/v1/video/cc/android/WiFi/vodpkg-Fastly--Azure-US-East1-Zenko/b8dfae20-dde1-48d0-bbd3-fc205df3708a.m3u8?idType=BMMP

Hi Happy

I hope all's good. Don't you hate it when you press 'Post Message' just to see someone has posted similar but better !!!

No plagiarism I promise. Good post as always Happy.

Mark

Well it's been an interesting engaging debate. Really great points and opinions. Thanks all.

The points for and against buybacks are well made. Personally, I am in full support of the benefits of large scale buyback programmes such as BP and Shell are undertaking. 100% correct that earnings per share is extremely important and will pay its own dividend to the share price going forward.

Debt reduction is also key. The exciting prospect that, alongside buybacks, debt could be reduced from $30b to a zero debt, net cash position by the middle of this decade would possibly, in my opinion move the share price to a point where £10 was a not impossible if, and after, such an achievement and moving towards the end of the decade.

Both of the above are outside of the integrated business engines, firing up to produce super growth and profits..........and a dividend to boot. !

Lots of unknown ahead of course and all guess work but one thing is for sure. BP is a fantastic investment to be in at this time.

Great evening all.

Mark

Hi Buffa

Smashing posts. Thanks for your time in posting.

Mark

Perfect timing as an add on to my previous post.

JP Morgan comes away 'bullish' from BP Q4 results, sees positive skew to consensus revisions

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/BP./jp-morgan-comes-away-bullish-from-bp-q4-results-sees-positive-skew-to-consensus-revisions-8eiz7ahw2drqa47.html