Member Info for MarkGo

Hi again Esso

Just wanted to agree again. “Be greedy when others are fearful” as I am pleased to have the opportunity to top up again sub 400 and will continue to do so.

Beyond the current noise, absolutely nothing had changed negatively for BP. Day by day they are selling oil and gas at a higher and higher average. Outside of a nuclear armageddon, the demand for oil, with supply constraints, will continue to grow throughout this year and beyond regardless of geographical political shenanigans, nothing will stop this.

The fear, or hope for some, that any possible Rosneft sanctions will disable the businesses is for the birds. Nothing will stop all oil majors raking in the profits this year smashing last year's performance.

There will be opportunities for traders to gain a percentage point or three, and good luck to them, but it is right to call out nonsense of a 40% share price drop possibility or other deramper's bilge posted in the hope to influence others with they foolishness or dishonesty.

Anyway best regards and good luck.

Mark

Enso

Rational and balanced post as always.
Fundamentals have not changed at all. Business as usual regardless of the rants and dreams of a silly little girl and the odd vegetable.

Take care mate.

Mark

Flummoxed

No. I am sure no one, apart from you, has considered your nonsense BS and idiotic miscalculation about a possible 40% hit.

Study the proposed sanctions by UK,EU and US. Rosneft is unaffected so far.

This board already has enough crackpots. There are no vacancies now Caitlins back.

Business as usual. !!

"What does BP having a 20% share in Russian oil and gas mean for the small stock holder ? When considering Boris Johnson government sanctions, anyone got any ideas"

Regarding the announced sanctions. No affect on Rosneft / BP. Busy as usual.

Hi Chandley

In full agreement with your post. I anticipate the next sustained move north around April, following the end of Q1.

Results for the first quarter will not be announced until 3rd May but analysts will be doing their calculation from the end of March and, as you correctly point out, most share price rises happen before the results.

Between now and then they may be volatility due to global events but I hope no one is influenced and shaken out by these events or negative posts or opinion.

Time to sit back and ignore, as much as possible, the current situation.

DYOR & GLA

Mark

Hi Jakers

Great post. I have a possible theory that the lack of any real sanction backed condemnation from the US, beyond the two regions specific sanctions, and not too much shock from EU / UK, leads me to wonder if a nod and a wink was given to Putin to recognise the two regions as independent.

Biden has intimated that he does not see this as an invasion of Ukrainian territory !! If the US/Russian meetings planned for Thursday go ahead, followed by a possible summit then this will be support for my theory. Sidelining the Ukraine and EU to do a deal with Putin.

Just a theory. Time will tell if its a nonsense one.

Mark

The market reaction.

As sad and unfortunate as the Ukrainian conflict is, it is now clear that that this will not cause the crash for BP's SP that some investors feared and others hoped for. ( Caitlin you fool )

In the Rosneft versus high oil conundrum, it is clear higher poo will negate any Rosneft shareholding fears.

Regardless of what happens, Both BP and Rosneft are now selling at nearly $100pb. If this is maintained for any period the share price will continue to rise in my opinion.

There may be an affect on demand at the margins, a minor drop in demand, but the world will need oil and gas more and more as the world opens up.

Happy days ahead

Mark

Rosneft ROSN share price down around 18% now.

For anyone who does not believe a conflict will take place and its all brinkmanship. There are a number of Russian commodity companies that are at super bargain prices for the brave and bound to recover on resolution.

Not a recommendation, just a thought.

Mark

Rosneft ROSN share price down over 20% so far today.

Food for thought.

Mark

Hi Jeffrey

Try to ignore the really negative share price predictions on this forum. Some of these come from investors who sold out and are praying for an invasion, war and bloodshed in the hope the share price will crash to unable them to reinvest at a lower price. Its not going to happen.

They are the usual suspects who were positive before selling out and now post their doom and gloom repetitively. So try to take no notice of their nonsense.

Here's some real world, good news for you.

Nothing negative has or will happen regarding BP's business model. In fact, the company is booming and generating gigantic amounts of cash each day while this 'conflict' plays out.

Brent average for 2021 was $72bp. Looney described that level of oil as meaning BP was a "cash machine". So far this year, Brent is averaging over $90+pb and mainstream concensus is that its going higher, so happy days ahead.

Also ignore crackpots who post about Rosneft being nationalised. The Russian state does not have majority control over Rosneft anymore due to a complex Venezuela deal.

State owned Rosneftegaz reduced its stake in Rosneft of 50% by 9.6% as part of the Venezuela deal, passing the stake to Rosneft as payment for its Venezuela assets.

Rosneft's shareholders include BP, which has a 19.75% stake, and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), via QH Oil Investments LLC, which owns another 18.93%. I believe there are smaller shareholders as well. So would Putin want to upset Qatar?, I think not and I think its nonsense and wishful thinking from the usual suspects.

BP has been operating in Russia for 30 years through the annexing of the Crimea, Russian action in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal by chemical weapons in 2018 among other actions resulting in sanctions. BP has never been affected.

While I do not believe Putin intends of invading despite the optics and rhetoric, if the improbable happened, BP will continue as normal in my opinion with Brent bursting through $100+bp as a silver lining. ££££

So try to ignore the current instability of the market and BP's share price. There may be further SP dips but all will be well in the medium term.

Keep the faith.

Mark

Iran deal & OPEC+

Good afternoon Nomad1 and all

latest update link below

A smart move by Opec.
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
An invitation for Iran, post sanctions, to join the cartel.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Wants-Iran-To-Join-Supply-Deal-If-Sanctions-Are-Lifted.html

All the best.

Mark

A smart move by Opec.

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

An invitation for Iran, post sanctions, to join the cartel.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Wants-Iran-To-Join-Supply-Deal-If-Sanctions-Are-Lifted.html

All the best.

Mark

Hi Spights

Putin would say that wouldn't he. !!!

I do not think an invasion will happen as it is not Putin's primary aim. My only concern is if the west see this as an opportunity to false his hand.

As well as sanctions, a prolonged conflict would cost Russia a lot of blood and treasure. A prolonged occupation could cripple Russia. Putin and the west know this and this could be beneficial to the west.

A conflict could weaken russian influence and economic power to the west's satisfaction. They are after all a global competitor. Possibly using Ukraine or pushing Ukraine into a proxy US/Russian conflict, without the risk to one American life, to achieve the aim of weakening Russia is, I am sure, being discussed in the US by the Hawks.

It is a dangerous game both sides are playing. Sense would see diplomacy resolve this matter fairly easily. Does the US want a peaceful outcome, outside of rhetoric?

Time will tell.

Have a great weekend all.

Mark

Hi Enso

I posted this on the Shell forum earlier today.

I hope it may give some scale to what Iran's possible ' legitimate ' supply could mean.

Iran currently sells around 3mb per day, through intermediaries to circumvent sanctions, and are looking to raise production to 4mb pd by April 2022

However, here is part of an article from SPGlobal, May 2021

"Iran could "easily" boost its oil production capacity to 6.5 million b/d, Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said May 31, as US, Iranian and European negotiators are set to convene this week for more talks over reinstating the nuclear deal".

"We can easily reach 6.5 million barrels per day," Zanganeh said at a ceremony to award studies on the country's giant Azadegan oil field, the oil ministry's Shana news service reported. At the ceremony, Ali Aghamohammadi, who is a member of Iran's arbitration body Expediency Council, noted that Iran has long-term goals of using more crude output domestically for refined products, which in turn can be exported at higher margins.

How much additional supply will hit the market seems unclear but I do not see a possible 2 - 3 million bpd, should sanctions be lifted, causing that much of an impact. Opec are currently adding 400,000 per month as demand increases so any negative in regard to price will probably be managed by Opec's supply adjustment, Globally we use just under 100m barrels per day.

Of course, oil traders will be using this period to cause volatility and make profits. Short term volatility to oil and oilers but just background noise for BP's share price long term.

Two issues that make for current volatility. Russian Ukraine tensions and Iranian nuclear deal. One upward pressure and one downward so understandable uncertainty and volatility. Final days of US / Iranian negotiations and Putin ramping up military exercises to keep pressuring on the west for additional concessions both to be resolved soon.

Have a great day

Mark

Hi all

Iran currently sells around 3mb per day, through intermediaries to circumvent sanctions, and are looking to raise production to 4mb pd by April 2022

However, here is part of an article from SPGlobal, May 2021

Iran could "easily" boost its oil production capacity to 6.5 million b/d, Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said May 31, as US, Iranian and European negotiators are set to convene this week for more talks over reinstating the nuclear deal.

"We can easily reach 6.5 million barrels per day," Zanganeh said at a ceremony to award studies on the country's giant Azadegan oil field, the oil ministry's Shana news service reported. At the ceremony, Ali Aghamohammadi, who is a member of Iran's arbitration body Expediency Council, noted that Iran has long-term goals of using more crude output domestically for refined products, which in turn can be exported at higher margins.

How much additional supply will hit the market seems unclear but I do not see a possible 2 - 3 million bpd, should sanctions be lifted, causing that much of an impact. As said by another poster, Opec are planning to add 400,000 pm as demand increases so any negative in regard to price will probably be managed by Opec's supply adjustment, Globally we use just under 100m barrels per day.

Of course, traders will using this period to cause volatility and make profits. Short term volatility but just background noise for Shell share price. Soon to reverse current dips.

Have a great day

Mark

THG are now the equivalent of a Dot Com bubble company of the 2000s. Empty hype, robbing private investors after institutions have sold out in the dream that private investors know better. THG is a future penny share. Disagree by all means. This is now an overblown valuation money pit. Apart from selling some lippy as a tech market stall, they are worthless or at least sub 50p. Sell up, cut your losses. I no longer hold shares in THG just calling out an example of a casualty of the rotation from ( fake ) growth to value. THG, ASOS, BOOHOO to be avoided.

£250k invested in THG recently based on a calculated risk. I sold out at a 5% loss in realisation and expectation of a further fall. The share price is currently 117 and I expect sub 100 soon..

IMHO DYOR

Mark

meoryou

IHi mate, I agree with your post. In my opinion I believe the board has the mix about right for the time being.

Dividends are acceptable, if not generous. Buybacks, while the company is undervalued, also makes sense. I am sure the board will make a judgement at some time in the future when buybacks are not so beneficial and will adjust shareholder return means according by increasing the dividend. £5.00 as a ballpark figure, sounds about right for now.

If oil averaged $60pb, I would not expect a change in policy until 2025, beyond the 4% annual increase, but as we are averaging over $90 so far this year and, as you state, with Looney stating at Q4 results that dividend payments will be reviewed each quarter this leaves the door open to a shorter term increase or possibly a special. Personally, I would be surprised to see an increase this year due to sentiment and profit protest towards Oilers that will be voiced each blockbuster quarter.

I would rather see free cash reduce debt and/or increase investment in both highest class new and old opportunities rather than rely on yield increases to raise the share price.

Mark

Hi Zac

I hope all's good with you. I know your history of being a BP shareholder after reading your great posts over the past year or so.

Respectfully, I do recall you posting similar to your post today when BP was around 300 some 5-6 months ago regarding the slow progress in the share price in regard to Oil and pre pandemic price levels.

I fully appreciate where you are coming from on that matter, especially with your average. I have felt the same frustration from time to time but I do believe that this year will see the a vast improvement in the share performance throughout the year. All things being equal.

On the price of oil, mainstream concensus is that oil will remain higher, and will at maintained, than historical levels as there is very little exploration or capacity increase possibilities. Iran will make no difference to this should sanctions be lifted and the Opec+ cartel are unable to ramp up production and currently under shooting planned monthly increases.

So high Oil ' could ' be here, if not for ever, certainly for the next few years. If high prices dampers demand, Opec are now disciplined and united and will manage the taps accordingly.

So there is grounds for feeling positive this year and beyond. I hope and expect to see us get to your average before the end of this year.

I know your funds have outperformed BP, hopefully this year BP will repay your loyalty, be it under sufferance.

Good luck.

Mark

Morning Spights

Thanks for the data. Make that $94.4 now. Not too shabby.

http://www.m.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

Mark