Member Info for MarkGo

Hi Aviduser

Similar thoughts today. Feeling frustrated as per my posts. Your last optimistic line is what keeps us invested.

Blind faith and hope.

" No rise up with the oil price but with the real possibility that any fall in Brent will take BP's share price down with it."....

Brent down 3% BP down 3%.

Let's hope this pattern does not continue when Brent falls by 20% on conflict resolution.

BP the dog of the Ftse today.

Hi meoryou & Jakers

Thanks for your replies.

100% agree that an increased dividend would assist and many investors would like to see that happen but I can't see it happening unfortunately. Why would they raise the dividend ? There is no advantage to the company in doing so, if fact, a rise would be a disadvantage in regard to the ongoing ( not sure why they have paused at current share price levels ) buyback programme of at least $4 billion a year until 2025.

Should oil stay high for the next few years, I expect the dividend will increase eventually, beyond the annual 4% announced. The dividend policy has been set until 2025. I appreciate it could change before then but I am not that optimistic.

A am a long term holder but seeing the share price drop again today by 3%, sub 370, with Brent at $127 and with everything looking to be going BP's way I am starting to wonder if there is something I am missing here.

Mark

Frustration fully understood.

As much as I hope peace talks in Turkey resolves the conflict, I wonder what will happen to BP's share price should Brent drop by 15% to around 110 or lower. With no upside benefit from the Oil spike I fear more share price pain to come if, or when, oil falls, I hope I am wrong.

Buybacks. Have they paused or been completed ? Without doing the calculations, have they bought back $1.5 billion since 8th February in only 18 BB days. Anyone know ?

Apologies for the pessimistic post. I can't see beyond the fog this morning.

Mark

meoryou

" Currently almost everything is going BP’s way. For some reason the market does not believe."

I agree, Rosneft aside, this conflict has produced only positives for BP yet we languish low 370s with Brent around $130.

If we would have carried out a poll on this forum one month ago on where BP's share price would be at $130pb I am certain 450 -500 would have been popular but here we are at 373.
No rise up with the oil price but with the real possibility that any fall in Brent will take BP's share price down with it as demonstrated today.

Each quarter the the same mantras are posted " next quarter is going to be massive " " this is going to rocket" I am starting to wonder if $130pb is not enough to raise the share price, what will ?

Mark

Tony

Good luck with your investment. The sell off in Lloyds is over done in my opinion. Lloyds exposure is minimal to zero but unfortunately, with a scattergun sell off across all parts of the sector, all suffer unnecessarily.

The silver lining is you are now invested at a 20% discount to recent prices. This time will pass and banks will recover.

On a 12 month time frame, with buybacks, interest rate rises and possible increases in shareholder returns via the dividend. Lloyds is a great investment at todays price ignoring the current shenanigans.

Good luck

Hi Hardup

Thank you for the BB RNS.

At last a post that has some relevance to Lloyds rather than the repetitive, infantile, kindergarten bull*hit posted every day on this forum masquerading as discussion on Lloyds.

The attempts to out-idiot or out-bore each other's posts is tiresome to read. Time to reform and refocus ?

While the share price crashes, no analysis, no opinion just horsey, galloping stupidity. Are all posters really old enough to buy equities ?

The purpose of my post, apart from thanking Hardup, is to hopefully raise the standard of this forum.

The next rates decision is due to be announced on March 17. The concensus is for an additional 0.25%. I would expect that decision to have a positive affect on Lloyds share price in normal times and, with the ex dividend date 7th April, a move north in the next few weeks.

The UK bank shares sell off seems over done. Are Barclays, Natwest together with Lloyds now are in bargain territory ?

Lloyds current dividend of 4.8% is sector leading.

Any thoughts ?

Mark

...was difficult to understand and made no sense based on fundamentals. Compare US oil majors to our poor peers.

For info. Share performance comparison.

Chevron 1Week +14% 1Month+ 14.5%
Exxon 1Week +10% 1Month + 2%

BP 1Week + 0.02% 1 Month - 13.8%
Shell 1Week -9% 1Month -11%

Total 1Week -5.5% 1Month -13.2%

Year to date
Chevron + 33%
Exxon + 32%

BP + 0 . 36% ( Pathetic US / UK Comparison)
Shell + 7 . 8%
Total - 6 . 3%

UK / EU equities are poor relations in performance to US markets. I'm not confident that this will ever change.

Scratching my head like many others. No idea where we are going short term but shaky confidence in this matter passing sooner or later and hopefully, being rewarded for holding.

This week, my guess would be for a recovery in the share price with oil continuing to rise, the conflict is ongoing and should be already fully factored in. There is no fundamental reason for BP to continue falling but we are in unchartered waters.

Victory to Ukraine.

Good luck to all.

Mark

Caitlin

I'm really interested to read more analysis from you following on from your thought provoking bait line tease of

" Russia getting it .... kicked in big time "

Looking forward to your follow up opinion and analysis on this subject.

Hi Harmonica

"Varient" (sic)! Ha-ha-ha! Very funny!

Well spotted. I knew that you would not be able to resist.

Hi Enso

Fears of high oil prices destroying demand are always a concern whenever oil prices spike but how real is that concern?

On the fringes of demand, there will always be some issues with 'high' oil such as drivers being able to afford to fill there vehicles at the pumps etc. but companies will absorbed this additional cost and just pass it on to customers. Outside of these minor matters, I do not see any substantial demand destruction at current levels, or even higher and here's why.

When analysts raise their concerns they usually point to the example of 2007-08 when oil hit $150pb subsequently crashing demand and prices but here's a different way to look at current demand and affordability today.

Oil peaked at $150pb around 2007. Fifteen years later and oil recently spiked to $120, maybe temporarily but let's imagine it will stay around $120 for the foreseeable.
I see this region as affordable, sustainable and not destructive to demands as in real terms the price of oil is much cheaper today than in 2007, taking into account inflation, oil is probably 40% cheaper, in real terms, than in 2007.

So while politicians, industries and members of the public complain about the price of oil, the truth is they have benefited from lower oil prices for years. My rough calculation of $150 per barrel in 2007 would equate to around $220 per barrel today.

Here are some other annual averages for oil.
2011 = $94,
2012 = $94,
2013 = $98,
2014 = $93

and 2021 just $72

Apart from. '21 all in real terms, much higher prices then than today with no resulting demand destruction in any of those years.

So I would have thought that oil below $150 pb is not going to cause any damage to demand.

A little simplistic, I know, but it is Saturday.

Have a great weekend all.

Mark

Harmonica

What's the point of your meaningless post ?

A few months ago you posted bedwetting predictions regarding the Omicron varient and now you post your prediction of $120pb. So what ? What's your point ?

Stick to spell checking. If anything, that's the only value you bring to this discussion forum.

Hi Share

I agree, I don't believe they have any other option that will not be irresponsible. The last BoE meeting voted 5 to 4 for a .0.25% increase with the 4 voting for a higher 0.5% increase last month so it seems probably that a number of hikes are on the horizon.

I believe the interest rate rises will be the catalyst for Lloyds to rise.

Maybe repost at...

Talk Sport discussion forum !!!!

https://talkforum.co.uk/viewforum.php?f=25

I made the mistake of visiting this Lloyd's discussion forum to seek the opinion of Lloyds shareholders only to find the last 30+ posts are the biggest amount of off topic drivel that I have ever read.

Why are you all posting nonsense that has no relevance to Lloyds. Facebook, twitter or Snapchat are more fitting for this meaningless bilge.

On topic, decisions will be made on interest rates at the next Fed, ECB and BoE meetings. Opinions on rates being raised or held due to the current situation ?

Tinker

Fully understand. I look forward to your return once the insurgents have moved on.

Take care Mr. T

Mark

Hi Cong

This is the full, non mobile access address

Try this one.

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

Hi Cong

Free live Brent chart link

http://www.m.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

Mark

Afternoon Happy and thank you.

Talks are now over. A second round are planned after reporting to each others hierarchy.

A continuation of talks sounds positive.

Have a great evening

Mark

Hey Dick

Good afternoon mate and thank you. Looking at where we are today, in comparison to the fears of the unknown yesterday, I feel confident that the negative effect of the Rosneft announcement is now fully factored in to the share price if it was not before and I don't see much downside from here, upredictable conflict developments aside.

What everyone will be hoping to hear later today from the Ukrainian/ Russia talks is that an immediate ceasefire has been agreed, this would be fantastic news for the Ukrainian people and a knock on boost for the markets.

Good luck

Mark

Hi all

I expect Looney explained to Rosneft in detail the reasons for his forced decision. The UK government made BP's position untenable.

BP's statement would have also been understood.

From Rosneft's statement below, you can see acceptance of this decision with the final line giving some future hope.

Rosneft's value has crashed recently but it will recover. Last week saw Rosneft crash around 45% one day only to rise by the same amount the next.

BP's stake may be exited some time in the future at a more beneficial price or, who knows, regime change in Russia could see an eventual change of plan. BP will be looking at all the options. So although this is a sh*t show at the moment, the world will move on eventually.

Opec.
I have an unconnected concern with Opec who will be meeting on 2nd March and how much outside pressure will be applied to the carter's members to take action against Russia. The last thing that we need is a break up of the discipline the cartel applies to oil supply. In 2020 Russia and the Saudi crashed the price of oil due to disagreements.

Here's Rosneft's statement....

MOSCOW, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Rosneft blamed BP's decision to abandon its 19.75% stake in the Russian oil giant on "unprecedented political pressure", saying 30 years of successful cooperation had been ruined, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday.

BP said it had taken the decision in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, marking an abrupt and costly end to three often fraught decades of operating in the oil-rich country.

Rosneft, which said BP had informed it of the move in advance, said it remained open for some cooperation.

US market opening bell in 6 mins will be interesting to say the least.

Remember.... This will pass.

Mark