Member Info for MarkGo

Morning Jakers

Absolutely agree with your post. No one should take any action, at all, based on any posts on this or any other forum. My posts in particular are just a venting of hot air and frustration.

I have a lack of understanding as to why BP's share pricec has fallen 65p or around 15% in a month.
Watching this continuously drop while the wider market is up, peers are up, oil is up I can't see where any level of support will kick in.

I think possibly the reality of Rosneft and leaving Russian operations has now been worked out by the institutions and could explain the sell down. An loss of $25 billion from the company value is massive regardless of how BP and investors want to paint it.

I don't see any reason for BP to stop falling or what would be the catalyst for support or a bounce. Eventually it will stop falling but, sadly, I don't rule out seeing low 300s again.

I hope that I am wrong.

Mark

Aviduser

Fully understandable. I am considering various options myself. I hope whatever decisions you make work out for you.

Good luck mate

Mark

Aviduser

Fully understandable. I am considering various options myself. I hope whatever decisions you make work out for you.
Good luck
Mark

Hi Jakers

Last week and the week before that was the right time to sell. Today could be the right time to sell if this keeps falling. Imagine what could happen to the share price on any actual bad news. Oil drops to sub 100, an escalation of the conflict, market correction due to any bad news on interest rates/ inflation/ recession, debt defaults by Russia, Evergrande. The share price is so fragile with all current positivity and falling so I don't rule out a continuation of the fall upto and including Q1 results reporting a $25 billion write off.

BP is a long, long, term speculative gamble. No wonder its being sold.

Well put Aviduser

It's not market manipulation. Investors always blame market makers or manipulation when they can't make sense of why their undervalued, value trap, investment is crashing. Truth is BP is a value trap. Its clear that it is seen as such by institions. Its only private investors who think they know better than the professional institutions and get stuck and sink scratching their heads asking why is the share price falling.

Rosneft also can't just be written off as a non-cash adjusting item charge, like some kind of meaningless accounting technicality. BP will have to write off $25 billion from the value of the business. The value of Rosneft has crashed, very little market for its oil due to sanctions that will stay in place for years to come, peace or not. VP will get little to zero for their share. Anyone investing in BP is investing in uncertainty and they are many other safer energy shares to invest in other than this half way house company.

BP is a fool's gold share for dreamers.

Morning Aviduser

I intend holding too, for now, but a lot less optimistic than I was. As there is no one on this forum or beyond who can make sense or valid excuses as to why BP keeps falling with the many positives in play that should lift the share price and that has lifted its peers and when the wider market rises and BP still falling I am wondering is there something else going on here ?
How much of a hit will be the final cost from exiting Russia? Do the institutions have that data and are getting out before Q1 results crash the share price ? What will turn this death by a thousand cuts oil $150, $200 ? What would happen to the share price is oil dropped to $100 or $90 ?

I know you don't know the answer, no one does, so I'm holding for now tentatively no sure I'm making the right decision.

Time will tell

Have a good weekend.

Mark

Jeffrey

Thanks for the clarification, I could see it once I reread your posts. Conflict although terrible has always been good for oil majors, as you rightly state, that adds to my concern.

I guess the normal right course of action would be to ignore the immediate and look away but with so much uncertainty and concerns these are not normal times. A perfect storm of financial and wealth destruction could be coming out way.

Mojo

Thanks for your responses. Always appreciate your views and opinions.

Have a great weekend both of you and all.

Mark

Hi Jeffrey

Please excuse my lack of understanding. Could you explain more please :-

"I would be surprised and I will be sad but likely the capital will be taken next week and then the market will tank. No idea what this means for oil as history is clearly not a predictor. "

Thanks

Hi Mojo

It's been a while and I hope all's good with you. Monitoring BP's share price in comparison to its peers, ie Chevron UP 24% in one month while BP DOWN 8% I am starting to have this uneasy feeling that today's share price is not the bottom and is being kept artificially high and once a resolution is found to the conflict, and the war premium that has boosted oil is removed, together with a possible massive increase in oil supply, where will that leave BP ? The weakness of the share price is clear today.

You are right I think, what dont we know, that others might, regarding the russian operations and financial damage beyond Rosneft. With the conflict, evergrande and Russia debt defaults on the horizon, inflation, interest rates and, I agree, the real and growing possibility of a global recession. I am torn between carrying on regardless or getting out.

Decisions.

Take care.

Mark

Hi Aviduser

I too looked at Glencore at the same time as making a large investment in BP around a year ago. Instead of picking the pedigree, I chose the mongrel.

In response to all the posts blaming BP's dividend level for holding the share price back,
Glencore is up 50% in 6 months, 75% in one year..... Glencore's dividend is just 3.91%

Glencore has benefited from high commodity prices.
BP has not benefited from a massive increase in oil. My concern is that any drop in oil will see BP drop with it.

With every oil producer being pressured by the west to produce more, fractures in Opec are now public. Opec members, UAE and Iraq have stated their disagreement with Opec. Russia are ramping up production over their Opec targets and could break away causing another 2020 oil price crash.

If BP's share price falls, not rises, with the current price of oil what will lift this dog. Opinion excluding the dividend please.

Mark

Happy

BP ADR Premarket down 1.62%. US oilers down Premarket.

I can't see BP rising on the US open. Far from it.

Could be a turnaround but I doubt it as much as I am doubting my previously bullish opinion on BP.

I too considered Glencore as an alternative recovery play. My decision, picked the wrong dog.

Good luck

Mark

What possible reason could there be for pausing the buyback programme since 3rd March ?.

Are they waiting for the price to rise before purchasing ?

The answer, looking at the pathetic share price, is Looney expects the share price will continue to fall.

Buybacks to recommence maybe around 330 ?

The dismal falling share price could do with some support.

Just another part of the current BP shi*show.

US/UK comparison

Chevron UP 4.8 %
Exxon UP 2.6%
Conoci UP 2.4%

And then the dogs

Shell Down 2.2%
BP Down 1.8%

Happy

Fully agree with your comments regarding duplicitous
Politicians. Not to be trusted.

Eventually this conflict will be resolved by diplomacy and negotiations. Any agreement coming out of Turkey, or wherever, will not, however return the world to where we were pre-conflict.

The West has finally woken up to the threat of Putin militarily and economically. Even if he withdraws, he will never be trusted again and its in the west's long term interests to keep sanctions in place to hopefully assist regime change as sanctions bite and the move away from reliance on russian energy as also sensible now that it has commenced or at least until when, or if, Putin's regime is toppled.

I am sure the removal of sanctions as a pre condition of withdrawal will not even be considered by the west. A economically crippled Russia will be the west's long term aim .

Aljazeera are silent on negotiations. Let's see if anything develops.

Have a great evening all

Mark

Hi Happy

Well called. You seem to have been right on the money earlier this afternoon with your post.

I expect we are looking at a further share price fall with oil falling so much. Frustrating as we did not benefit from the hike but seem to be following it down.

The devil will be in the detail although with or without an agreement I can not see the west backtracking on sanctions, reliance on Russian energy

So while we watched BP's share and oil price crash this morning, watched the FTSE fly and wonder why, we then hear this afternoon that a possible resolution is close.

Coincidence ? or just the usual corruption, leaks and tip offs from the negotiations to institutions and markets.

As always its the private investor who gets mugged in the dark. Silver lining ? BP board probably being kept up to date on negotiations and once the share price crashes on resolution, buybacks will restart sub 350. ?

Apologies, trying to be optimistic but the whole system is corrupt. Someone will be a winner from the Rosneft farce. You know who the losers will be.

Sanctions to be lifted on Iran who sponsor terrorism thoughout the world. US sucking the Saudis who are bombing Yemen to dust. The hypocrisy of the west disgusting.

Plague of out their houses.

Hi meoryou

I was having a glass half empty moment this morning, as a result of maybe focusing too much on the immediate and allowing the numbers ie share price, oil price, supply and demand to effect my optimism, temporarily I'm sure.

Everything is going BP's way at present and the error I have made was expecting that the share price would respond accordingly and recover, not to fall back again and languish weak and susceptible to drop back further through a lack of support including the curious pausing of the buyback programme. This has me wondering why ? Is there some reason that the board know, institutional investors know but as private investors we don't. It is unusual to pause buybacks and with no RNS especially at current SP levels. Maybe I'm over thinking that as well.

I know that short term share price gains or loses are not that important in the long term but I do find that they affect the contents of my glass from time to time.

Apologies for the temporarily pessimistic view.

Have a great day. Good luck.

Mark

Your welcome Spights

Posted with the caveat of no recommendation and the importance of doing your own research.

Good luck mate.

....maybe a climb prior.

Hi Spights

Apologies for off topic reply !!

The last two weeks saw Lloyds lose 20%, at one stage down to 39. Its staging a recovery in the last few days. The BoE monetary decision on interest rates is due on the 18th, I think, a rise of another 0.25% should boost the share price and ex dividend day is on the 7th April, maybe a clim prior.

Hope that's of some help.

Mark