Member Info for MarkGo

Hi Sigma1

Happy new year to you and your loved ones. Thank you for your post. You are absolutely right that, in the end, we all have the same hopes for this new year for our investments regardless of our different strategic methods, in being successful and, I too, wish every investor great success this year.

Congratulations to you in your success last year in trading up to enable your property purchase and I hope this year will be as successful for you as last year.

With Brent touching $80pb, even with Opec's meeting tomorrow, BP ADR currently up 3.15%, tomorrow should be a positive start to the year.

Good luck all.

( Jakers, lol. Sweat and Sour post was more to do with Cheese and Red wine...lots of Red wine. Happy New Year matey )

...expectation is that some investors in BP will continue to be trapped in a state of investment depression in 2022 regardless of performance.

Happy new year to all or at least to those who can experience happiness.

Only two days in to the new year and the dragging of negativity by some posters from last year to this new year is fairly tiresome and depressing.

From the return of the chartest investment guru's smugness, who were noticeable by their absence when their mystical predictions were proved to be gobbledegook, or at least absent long enough in the hope that their previous posts have been forgotten and for their predictions to be reworked with added 20 year hindsight graphs, to those doom prayers hiding in the shadows, like ambulance chasers, waiting, and praying for a crash, a market crash, so that they can reappear on the forum and feed.

Regular posters will know who these usual suspects are.. Each market dip they slither out from under their rocks to post " I told you so" in hope that a market correction and crash that would bring misery to many, would provide satifaction and to them.

My post is meant to be lighthearted not negative .

Let's be positive and see what a brand new year brings.

Good luck to ( mostly) all.

Mark

Tacet

Some meat on the bones of your last comment, if you have the time, would be welcome.

"thank you Sigma - 2022 will be a very important year from many points of view "

Cheers Mark

Hi Tacet mate

Thank you for your recent posts.

'I am about to tweet a BP chart with simple channel on it - have a look @tacetfx - a chart for a trader'

I've had a look, thanks. Please excuse my ignorance but , with the benefit of hindsight, I can see how traders could have traded beneficially if they get their timing right but isn't the missing key here timing in how to judge / gamble on timing.

Are you demonstrating or suggesting that timing is fairly irrelevant and BP's share price will continue to fluctuate regardless so trading rather than investing is preferable.

Genuine query and questions and apologies for my lack of understanding.

Mark

Tacet

Happy new year to you and I hope you and your loved ones remain safe and well. It's been a while and I have certainly missed your previously regular technical analysis contributions.

So 'Thumbs up' I think many would be interested in your TA opinion going forward in regard to BP.

Technical analysis, as a methodology of investing, interests me but, to be honest, I am not that knowledgeable beyond the basics.

I did not intend on posting again this year but I wanted to wish you also a wonderful new year, along with all other contributors.

Happy days ahead.

Mark.

Hi again Spights

I'll raise a glass to that. Thanks for all your posts this year along with every other contributor to this forum.

In my last post this year, ( who shouted ' hallelujah ' I just want to wish every contributor, and your loved ones, a happy, healthy, 'wealthy' 2022.

Cheers all.

Mark

Thanks for the response EmeraldCarrot.

All logical and sensible opinion.

Good luck and happy new year again.

Mark

Spights

I thought yon may be a serious party animal and commencing celebrations early.

Happy new year

Brent now over $80pb

A possible dip pre-Opec meeting next Tuesday 4th January could be followed by a oil price rally as majority opinion seems to point to increasing supply problems as demand grows in early 2022 and beyond.

On a risk to reward level, what can be seen at this point in time, all looks fairly positive in regard to BP.

Good luck all.

Mark

EmeraldCarrots

Happy new year to you and good luck with your decision. Along with the overblown Omicron threat, I see Putin being of no real threat to the BP as an investment or more importantly Ukraine.

Putin is a master at punching above his weight on the world stage and applying pressure to the west for a number of reasons. Russia has so much more to lose than gain with an invasion of the Ukraine.

This is really about Germany delaying certifying Nord Stream 2, something they will do eventually as Europe needs to. The West are in discussions with Putin who also wants assurances that Nato stop attempting to lure Ukraine to join them which would bring Nato right up to Russia's border. Understandable.

Assurances on both will be given, Putin will get his way and he gets to use a future military build up on the Ukraine border to achieve future concessions from the west.

The US are key here and as always money ( or energy ) talks.

Happy New year to all.

Mark

Hi Updownflat

"I think no-one wants to own BP on the 31st of December due to the stigma. So let's see how the new year goes."

Excuse my stupidity. Can you explain please.

I hope you all had a really great Christmas.

As disappointing as it is to not see any share price response to the oil price rise over the past few days, I guess it should not be too surprising during these mid holiday sessions with fairly low volumes.

I would also not be surprised to see oil sold down in the next few days and especially next Tuesday prior to the Opec meeting on the same day, 4th January. This is the usual oil price pattern with recovery in price shortly after, subject to no Opec surprises in increased supply.
It will be interesting to see how they view supply/demand. The cartel has planned for a monthly increase in supply of 400,000bpd. In my opinion, this will probably continue as the SPR announcements and Omicron worries did not give them cause for concern to pause January's increase which is, currently, going ahead.

I am hopeful that once traders fully return to their desks and with the Opec meeting out of the way, we may see a steady SP increase towards Q4 result on 8th February, with ex-divi day on 17th February. Q4 results should be impressive. With only days to go, Brent would have averaged over $80 for the quarter. Another 'cash machine' quarter.
Looney has stated that dividends would be increased by 4% per annum until 2025 and although it was only increased in Q2 I would not be surprised for the 4% 2022 increase to be announced at Q4, as a reward to shareholders.

If any Omicron restrictions only result in minor inconvenience with no lockdowns or restrictions at a cost to the recovery, which I believe will be the case, we could finally start moving back towards normality with travel demand recovery as well as the global demand for oil increasing throughout 2022.

I am going to take little notice of the markets now until next year !

Enjoy the New Years holiday all.

Mark

Real Time 21.14 Brent up 3.72% $78.6pb

Live Brent data

http://www.m.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

I would like to wish everyone on this forum a truly wonderful Christmas. Whether your christmas is spent alone or with loved ones, I believe we all have earned the right, to a joyous, stress free break and recharge over christmas, following on from another difficult year for everyone.

Although we all have differences of opinion in life and insignificantly in the big scheme of things, our investments, there is so much more that unites us all in trying to navigate a path through this increasingly difficult, complex existence, to try to do the best we can in attempting to provide for ourselves and out loved ones futures, while trying to avoid the many challenges and remembering to be kind, considerate and compassionate. Maybe the last bit is just something only I have a problem with and need to work at !!

As well as wishing you all a wonderful Christmas, I would also like to wish you all a safe, happy, healthy and wealthy new year as our investment in BP is rewarded with unbelievable share price growth thoughout 2022. ( It is a wish !! )

Best wishes all

Mark

Spights

Thank you for all your posts and links. I sense our positivity is fairly aligned, in regard to BP as an investment.

With positive news starting to flow through in regard to Omicron, as I hoped it would. The genuine concern of the market, along with last week's bedwetter posters on this forum can feel reassured.

I don't see much more improvement in the SP until the new year nut looking forward to the build to Q4 results

Have a great Christmas all.

Mark

Off topic apologies

Did any other HL account holder suffer from their website, app and telephone lines being down this morning so unable to trade for the first 30 mins or so.

If so, I believe you have grounds for restitution and compensation for a lost trading opportunity and should consider submitting a complaint.

Have a good day all.

Mark

Morning all.

Omicron infections on the rise but hospitalisations and deaths low. This data will feed through to the markets sooner or later, probably on traders return from holidays in the first week of January.
Brent recovery already underway, Thanks Spights for your post. Brent now quickly bounced back to $72.5. So global recovery under threat ? I think not.

In my opinion, and money where my mouth is, Omicron is a temporary blip / opportunity and will soon be an irrelevance. I have topped up today with dividends plus additional funds and will have a very happy, chilled Christmas in my decision.

Everyone should do their own research and base their investment decisions on nothing other than that.

Great day and good luck to all.

Respect

Mark

Hi Oliver

With just over six weeks to go until Q4 results, my expectation would be for the current Omicron driven sentiment to have mainly passed by then. Data, so far, seems to point cautiously to, Omicron being a fairly short term problem that should burn itself out due to the speed of transmission in a month or so.

I believe, today's market overreaction is nothing to be concerned about either in my opinion. Just a few days before Christmas, I am sure trading will be light, with traders absent this week and next contributing to wide swings in prices as prior to their return from summer holidays.

So, on to the new year. A happier one we hope. Opec will be meeting on Tuesday 4th January. I expect any weakness in oil price will be addressed and appropriate action taken then or possibly earlier as the last meeting was left open to enable action to be taken immediately if required. I would guess they would monitor the situation until the meeting, however, they have warned traders that they will not hesitate in taking action if they try to manipulate prices.

Unless some unknowns crop up, all things being well from the beginning of the new year, I hope to see a steady recovery in the SP on the approach to Q4 great results, which are already in the bank.
Without this current Omicron blip, I would have hoped BP to be around 350 by Christmas/New year and a build from there to Q4 announcement pushing on 360+ . With Omicron, my guess is Q4 SP will be near 350 with a more gains to come as demand picks up again.in the spring/summer

Majority opinion seems to support supply problems in 2022+ as demand grows and while in the short term it is difficult to have any certainty or confidence in where the SP will be I see this being a non exciting ride to fair value and beyond in the coming year or so.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-19/saudis-are-right-to-warn-of-a-worrisome-collapse-in-oil-supply?s=03

In regard to EPS forecasts platforms, I use marketbeat.com but I am sure there are better platforms/ websites out there. Can anyone advise please ???

Have a great Christmas and a healthy, wealthy 2022.

Mark

Hi Cong

Thank you. I would like to think my schizophrenic rants on BP are a thing of the past. Too much time wasted reacting to weekly, daily, hourly share price movements and paper loses and not enough attention to the fundamentals of my investment.

I now focus on the performance and direction of the company, and that is where I found my peace of mind. I am fortunate enough to have a large holding that produces enough in dividends to keep me invested and content to hold through any correction, Evergrande-like issues, pandemic variants etc to see where we are by 2025.

BP can achieve increased annual dividends, buybacks, debt reduction and investment in the transition at $60pb and with all the negative sentiment, Brent is still over $71pb and I believe Q4 results will show an average of over $80pb for the quarter with majority opinion that oil will rise over the next few years due to supply and demand issues. It is worth repeating that BP is a cash machine, with oil at current levels, as Looney described it at Q3.

So all looking good for the future I hope.

Have a brilliant Christmas Cong.

Mark

Mojo

Thanks for your response. I have come to terms with my timing issues !! although on this morning's top up it seems okay at the moment. I am happy to ride out this period of uncertainty.

I am certain there are better ways to invest but I am a lazy investor and content to receive my transition loyalty payment every 13 weeks in the hope that I will be rewarded for holding in the next few years by a recovery in the SP if all goes well with the price of oil and the transition.

Anyway, I hope you have a great Christmas Mojo and all other posters.

Mark

Morning Mojo

As night follows day, on any temporary crisis you can always bank on a visit from Mojo. Next will be the " told you so " mongers of doom chartist cult members. !!

Only in jest. It is also always good to hear from you Mojo and I hope you and yours remain safe and well. I do believe you have a good understanding of the market and all your concerns, as previously posted, are all valid.

On Omicron and this current market blip, in my opinion, I do not see this as anything other than a temporary problem. This is not April 2020 revisited. Possible circuit breaker mini lockdown aside, if the data shows that hospitalisations are increasing or, on NHS staff sickness levels, I do not see how this justifies today's market reaction.

Traders may be selling down oil but the truth is the global recovery continues albeit slowed slightly.

So, I see this as a pre Christmas gift and have topped up today £40k in the understanding that a further drop could happen but Q4 results are only six weeks away. By then I would expect a SP recovery and Omicron to be less of a story.

We will see.

Have a great day.

Mark