Member Info for Marcus_

Got to agree with young gun. The implications are still unknown. The are no true valuations at the moment as we can't see the impact on revenues.

But any companies with debt are going to be hit hardest in their sector

Skier no one can predict anything in this market. These are moves beyond any normal fluctuations.

Good luck to those holders, but I'm staying in cash for the foreseeable future

Prevention is almost irrelevant. If an immunisation programme was say 3-6 months away then prevention would help. But it's not.

What we are doing is playing the delay game. We know most people will catch it, but if we delay its spread then the health system might just be able to cope.

If it is not delayed then the health system would become over run and the number of chronic cases would be beyond our ability to cope. Those chronic cases would be more likely to become fatel and so the death rate would jump beyond the current 1-2%.

However, delay also means prolonged financial uncertainty.

I understand the frustration, but I think a small rise in the POO is not that significant to PFC. The question is who can make a profit on oil at this price and are PFC providing oil services to those companies/countries?

I don't have sufficient knowledge on PFC contracts to know if we provide services to those people and places who can still turn a profit at this level. If we do then great, but if not then eventually those contracts and services will end. It may only be temporary if Saudi and Russia get it together, but Saudia could keep oil at these levels for quite a while.

Opportunities to make some money today, but lots of shares have now pulled back from those highs.

This is all cv related.

Quarantines, fewer people buying / selling stuff, less stuff needing to be made, less oil required.

Fear is in the air financially speaking

Because the worst case scenario for the UK is 500,000 deaths.
World wide this would be far higher than seasonal flu.

This does not mean it will hit that worst case scenario, but to stop it doing so it means a change in planetary human behaviours.

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1%
The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu, currently between 2.3% to 1.4%.

But that is only the death rate. There is also the chronic infection rate where people will need medical intervention to support them and this is also higher.

I do stress currently, it is likely in future years the rates of infection and the chronic and mortality rates will decline as we will start to gain herd immunity as those who have had it will be less likely to get it again and pass it on.

Way too early to suggest it will go bust. But it is a high risk share. I'm shocked that some people are investing on the gamble that this virus will fade way over the summer.

People need to listen to virology experts, they are talking about a peak in summer and then again next winter. Any immunisation is 12 months away.

Its infection rate is above flu as is it chronic infection rate. It's not a world killer but it is a threat to health systems and unless you only have people in your life under 40 then it's could impact everyone.

When you are betting on events outside a companies control I don't see that as investing, its gambling. Which is fine, high risk = high rewards but also high losses.

I sold everything a week ago as I could not take more losses with no positive resolution in sight.

I think saga has been hit extra hard as it targets its products at the group most susceptible to this virus. 14% death rate in the over 80's. 8%in the over 70's etc.

It is probably an over adjustment by the market. But you can see why unlike other insurers and holiday companies that are less reliant on this customer group.

I see 26p and see a bargain and it's tempting but its only tempting if we end up with a good outcome against the virus.

I'm done.

Was already at a 20% loss and the 7% loss in the last few weeks has just convinced me that I can't pick a stock for toffee.
Back to funds for me, possibly EFT's but not individual shares as I have a very poor track record.

Expect a market bounce and Coronovirus to disappear now I have sold.

Good luck all.

I did this, this morning.

I held about 8 or 9 different stocks and they have all taken a drop over the last few days taking 8% off my capital and I can't see an end in sight.

It may be a panic sell off, but I think my lesson has been learned as I was already down on the stocks this year.

Just funds and ETF's for me from now on.

Good luck to all.

Lilo, the dividend was cut in half when the SFO announced the case. In the intervening years the debt has been cut.

All this means the company is in a better position to deal with any fine. The shocking thing is the amount of time for charges to be brought means all this activity has been forgotten

I have considered EFT's and you are right it would diversify the risk.
From a charges point of view because my ISA is with HL then buying shares or EFT carries the same fee.

I may try an eft next year when the new allowance comes in, it's just one of those products that I have not been too familiar with, but have been doing some reading on them today.

Got to agree with the more experienced investors below, 100% of your cash in one company seems like a gamblers choice. (but it's your money).

I'm down to varying degrees across my portfolio, but had it all been in one share I could be looking at a 40% haircut on my capital with no chance of recovery (thanks SAGA and CNA).

As it is the losses are bearable, BP is one of the better losses at the moment if that makes any sense?

IT would have to be some Tuesday results to turn this around and I'm not expecting that.
Debt down, profit up and revenues not too badly hit would do me just fine.

I do find the length of the investigation stage curious, either they have the evidence or they don't?
If they are waiting on the outcome of one trial to determine whether they have any evidence for another, that seems ridiculous.

If it was an individual being prosecuted this would probably have been deemed harassment by the police to investigate the same individual for the same crime for so long.

Shares are a long term business, having said that I have bought some stinkers recently that I don't expect to recover the capital on (this being one of them).

Last year I had some really good returns on PFC which put my head above water for the first time ever in my share trading history. (I also invest in funds which are duller but at the moment are proving to be far better than my own stock picking).

This year I'm way down 20% from my highs and 10% below my original capital investment. I can't day trade for toffee, but I still think overall on a 5-10 year timescale even with dogs like CNA and SAGA in my portfolio, I'd hope to make more than the 2% APR tops I could get in a cash ISA.

And with a fair wind, cash out at the right level. Once I hit 50 I'll move everything into funds as I eventually want to spend the money and not risk it all the way to retirement.

What a mess. You would not expect this type of consistently poor performance from an AIM company.

Looks like I'll be holding until a take over occurs. Then will cut losses on any minor bounce as clearly this management are not capable

Thought we had turned a corner a few weeks back, seems we just entered a roundabout and came back out on the same side we went in.

With things like this virus what you get is alot of delayed demand. So it can sift out those companies who can't out wait that response.

As for peak I believe the number of new cases platoed today. If it is a true peak then the number of deaths with reach its peak in the not too distant future.

But no one knows for sure.

Well someone is making some decent money out of this. Just not me.