Member Info for Marcus_

Had a sneaky gamble on this yesterday.

And yes it was a gamble, investment decisions are a bit random at the moment

Not all virus are the same.
Yes it could mutate, but then so could small pox.

We decided to immunise against small pox and the same could be true for this virus.

Science is not a 1 size fits all process, some virus like influenza have rapid change. Others like Coronavirus' (as they are a group not a single entity) have a much slower potential for change.

So yes immunisation is still a possible outcome.

I don't think you can call a drop to 6-7 degrees a cold snap

I think HL is cheaper than Halifax.

Ive used IG, was cheaper than both but did not like the platform and it did not at the time allow lifetime isa's.

HL has always been pretty good, may not be the cheapest but a fairly robust platform.

Lock downs are a double edged sword. True they reduce the spread. But the more the spread is reduced the harder it is to come out of lock down without it all restarting again.

You want to reduce but not eliminate the spread, as eliminating the spread will mean lots of people without immunity for the second and third and fourth waves.

I can see a point where they just risk unproven vaccines in the hope it works to get people working again

You think they will pay a dividend?

One positive for lloyds is that it is likely the government will offer to back loans during this period reducing the risk of defaults direct to the banks.

I assume the dividend is gone. But as this virus will only have say 12 months I still see value in future dividend payments even of 1p per share.

It will hit profit margins but after being in cash for weeks I've decided that lloyds is tempting at this price with or with out a dividend.

Not expecting a return today or tomorrow, but long term I see this more as 40p

DYOR

Lots of share boards are saying the same thing. Lots of upside if you hold for the long term.
But we could be looking at huge deflationary pressures and recession if not depression type scenarios.

Until we start to see the real impacts hitting balance sheets we will have no idea which companies will even survive. 888 has low debt but cashflow can kill even the most profitable companies and cashflow maybe an issue across the market.

Do you think insurance will be making a profit?

Who knows?

At the moment the world economy is being shut down the basics will survive, which gives me some hope for PFC.
But the oil price war could not have come at a worst time.

Brave

Don't forget the upside is unlimited but the downside is 100%

You can have free fuel and it will make no impact if the ship is empty.

Got to feel for saga as cruising was on the up and sales going well.

Now all that will be remembered is 'floating petridishes " and to get people coming back after this passes serious discounts will be required. Possibly run at a loss in the hope of building up confidence.

Assuming the debt does not consume the company in the meantime.

It's hard to sell at a loss and in a normal market I can't bring myself to do it that often.

But I had to cash in a couple of weeks back despite losses.

I doubt I'll find the bottom. But good luck to all investors hope you make a good return.

I do wonder about that lock down in China. It appears to have been effective. But not sure how they progress as lifting the lock down will raise the risk of further spread.

If you were harsh you would tell the at risk groups to lock up for a month and tell everyone else to circulate as much as possible to build that herd immunity.

Can't see China or any other country advocating that.

I agree the current rate is higher than it is likely to be. Also as immunity is gained it will slow the spread. But even if the infection rate was half the current projections it is still on the short term a bigger risk for chronic care and mortality than flu.

I'm in a relatively safe group so no personal need for me to worry. But most people have others who will be in more at risk groups and so you can understand the wider concern.

I get what you are saying asperger, but the prevalence of smoking and driving is higher than cv-19, and there are effective prevention measures for smoking.

If cv-19 was as common as driving then the total deaths would be higher.

All activity is to prevent it being as prevalent in the population as then the total numbers would dwarf the rest. Also can't compare annual figures to basically one month's worth.

It would be like someone inventing the car and declaring it the safest form of transport after only a few people had bought one.

Its not the total figure it's the percentage that counts.

Im going to hold off a little longer. I think there is still more to come.

Both the UK and USA are on the fringes of a break out. I'm waiting to see if that occurs as I imagine the bigger the impact in these large markets the more jittery stocks will become.

I definitely think there is value in lloyds at this price but only if the virus does not change into a run on the banks.

Boards like this show the lack of scientific and mathematical education in our general population.

Cv - 19 is not the same as flu and is far more contagious / chronic and lethal. The fact it is new helps it spread and the lack of immunisation makes it a higher mortality risk.

Flu is more common at the moment hence why it has more total deaths attributed to it. All the measures being taken are to prevent cv-19 being as common as flu.

Personally I think we will fail as it's incubation period is too big to control, but we may stagger the impact.

Long term I think immunity will grow and cv19 will phase away. But the short term shock is not possible to predict at the moment