Member Info for Marcus_

I would hope it is because barclays announced today and lloyds will announce tomorrow.

Safer for big players to buy on fact rather than hope

Personally I'm always skeptical of big pharma, but make of it what you will

Dow surges more than 400 points at Wednesday's open amid upbeat report on Gilead's experimental coronavirus treatment

Treatment not vaccination.

Always suspicious of big pharma announcements, but here is hoping.

I think the reason why news of a vaccine will boost the general market and Lloyds is because a vaccine for COVID-19 should have a bigger impact than a vaccine for Flu.

Just because symptoms are similar the genetic make-up of the virus are completely different making this coronavirus less likely to mutate and therefore any vaccine is likely to have longer lasting effects.

Yes virus' can mutate but each one is different on how frequently it is likely to mutate. For example when was the last time you had a jab for small pox? That is because small pox whilst also a virus had 2 variants, Variola major and Variola minor. This meant it was possible to develop a vaccine and eradicate it before it could change.

Flu epidemics reoccur because of way the virus is built and how it interacts with the human immune system. The virus is highly changeable, acquiring genetic variations.

There is no evidence of COVID-19 behaving in this manner, yes it can adapt. Technically we can all adapt, but some organisms are slower to do so.

If COVID-19 had been an influenza type virus then we would be seriously screwed as the chronic infection and death rates combined with the adaptability of Flu would have made tackling it a yearly occurrence.

You would need a total lockdown to quarantine for say 18 months to stand a chance of isolating it.

Anyway that is too much virus talk, the jets under Lloyds seem to have cooled a bit today, which is no terrible thing. Whilst I believe the cut in the Lloyds SP of 50% is too deep, I do agree that there is little sense in other valuations which seem to rise as soon as they fall.

So there will be a pull back at some stage, but the FTSE is down about 20% from the highs so I can see an argument for further drops in the wider market.

I'm happy to be wrong on the recovery if it rebounds as you expect.

My view is more about what I am willing to accept.

I'm in at 29p so unless it starts falling into the teens I'm fairly comfortable waiting to get a return.

I don't need the capital for about 20 years so I have plenty of time if not plenty of cash.

Sadly her funds do not see to be available through the HL platform so I will be unable to invest and utilise her knowledge of that market.

But thanks for the tip.

Lovely but very specific to that index. The article itself mentions that other indexes have fallen further.

So useful if you are trading in those stocks but not as useful for the ftse or more specifically lloyds.

I'm not expecting 60p for say 3 - 4 years.
I'm planning for a long recession following this virus. Although bizzarely it may not be a technical ressecion during that period due to the low base this quarter will start us on.

But let's call it 3-4 years of relatively high unemployment compared to the last 4 years.

Interest rates will remain low and profits will be hard to grow.

However I would not be surprised to hit 40p this year.

Then maybe growing 5p each year there after if we recover well.

Clearly there will be the usual spikes and troughs, but that is what I will be judging my investment decision on. If it moves quickly to 60p then I will be one happy camper.

Barclays up 5% today so the analysts once again get it wrong( surprise surprise)

Profits down does not justify a 50% drop in the share price. We all know profits will be down tomorrow, but if the bank is still making money then people will see a 50% cut for a short term virus is far too much.

I'm hopeful of a another good day tomorrow.

Wow talk of the sp going up or the sp going down, you could mistake this place for discussion board on lloyds rather than a brexit / general politics board that it has been since 2015.

People should not get so wound up about posters saying that the sp will fall even if they finish their sentence with either of the following.

FACT
it's a given

Even with those very convincing phrases it is still just an opinion. They have no wondrous foresight and neither will them saying it is so in this bastion of knowledge, it will not make it any more likely to occur.

Unless they hold hundreds of millions of pounds worth of stock, their view is just that. You should welcome counter opinions as it is a good break on group think and makes people think through their own decisions.

Personally I'm holding for 40p and I can wait for a few years for that to happen. In the mean time it can go down and up.

If I had my money in the bank I'd need to leave it there for 4 year to get interest equivalent to today's rise.

To hit 40p it would need roughly 25 years of interest.

So holding for a few months or years is a small time frame.

I think the decision comes down to

When do you need the cash?
Is there room for this to grow more within that time frame?
If you don't need the cash following this rise do you judge there to be a better opportunity elsewhere?
Do you expect to cash out and buy back at a lower price?

Opportunity for some to get their dividend of the back of today's rise.
I did have my finger over the sell button but foolishly I'm going for a long term hold to 40p

It's not following the FTSE, FTSE rise is only 1.5%.

For a change it is leading the FTSE.

Who knows what has inspired the rise, but HSBC results have barely nudged the SP only down less than 1% today on not fab results so I hear.

It could be speculation it could be insider knowledge or maybe some sellers feel that this has been over sold in the last few weeks.

Let say the recession is pretty bad GDP down by 10%, well the Lloyds SP has been cut in half in the last 3 months.
An economy shrinking by 10% is pretty bad but can't see why banks would take a 50% hair cut on the back of it as they are all pretty well capitalised nowadays.

In fact Lloyds were pretty well capitalised for the last crisis, they just got sold a pup in Halifax that dragged them down with the rest.

Looks to be gaining well at the moment.
Not a shooting star but unlike other shares seems capable of holding its gains were as other more volitile stocks you need to time it just right.

Nice little turn around for you today.
I'll have to wait some more need at least 280-290

Taking a spanking today, I bought too early on these so will have to hold for a while.

I think the WHO warning last night will temper any recovery.

Back to more normal market conditions, some days up other days down but at a lower level than previously until the market can properly assess the impact.

Disclosure: I am currently holding SAGA shares.

It is going to be really difficult to find the gems from the rubbish until some trading updates start to come out in 3-6 months time.

I've mostly moved out of holding individual shares as I think there will be some companies who will run out of cash. Travel related companies being top of that list. Most of my money is in tracker funds so I am well diversified and don't take too big a hit if one company goes down, but also should benefit from any market rebound.

Of the companies I still hold SAGA is probably my riskiest holding but it does have the advantage of being able to trade with some big volatile movements. Making 15% in 1 days is not standard for a medium sized and fairly robust company.

Calling bottom on anything is very difficult I've been in and out of this share recently and it seems to have found its lows.

Just recovered ground lost yesterday.

Gutted as I thought I had timed my entry right but got it wrong on this and saga.

Oh well it was a short term drop and hopefully a longer term investment

Wtf happened in the last hour. I sold about 1pm as I wanted to consolidate some profit on this at long last. But was expecting to hold.