Member Info for Marcus_

Agreed, I should have sold again on the small bump yesterday.
But like a boomerang following the sharp drop earlier today this is back to where I bought in at the start of the week.

Iron ore prices down 3% so not entirely surprising given the general market today.

Agreed, I'm no good at the short term.

I had falsely assumed a cut was priced in, however the drop in SP is not as big as the dividend cut so a large portion was priced in.

By Monday I assume this will start to move with the market sentiment. If you use a 7p dividend as your guide then a decent stock would pay a 3-4% yield.

Therefore if you think the management will get this in the right direction then top end I in a few years you could be looking at 200p. If they squander the opportunity and pretty much stand still therefore end up paying out a higher yield or reducing that predicted dividend then you could be looking at pretty much this same sp in a couple of years.

So it depends on your confidence in the management team to turn this ship around now they have some more juice in the tank. If it got worse then you are looking at sub £1.

To me whilst I have overpaid, I expect long term to make a gain from my buy of 122p - 150p. It will not be stellar but 22% over a couple of years would still out perform any bank account by a long way.

Well I am disappointed but only in myself. I had assumed a dividend cut had already been priced into the sp.

Turns out I was wrong, can't blame the company for today's drop it was clear a dividend cut was coming, the fault lays at my own door for judging the market reaction incorrectly.

What will be down to company management is whether they take advantage of this dividend cut or squander the opportunity.

Its not a loss until you sell and I can hold for a long time. But investors need to hold their feet to the fire for 2 years now and demand better than what has been done previously to benefit the owners of the company long term.

8% in 2 days.

Decided to cash out and wait for a retrace. At some point this will rise and rise, if you are holding at that point fantastic but happy to risk missing out on sustainable growth and any dividend at the moment and just play the volatility

You can only spend it though when places to spend are open.

I do wonder if some posters only hold lloyds shares, as they seem very reliant on one dividend.
I am working on the assumption that nothing is guaranteed in stocks, so work on the basis of diversification.

Holding passive tracker funds and active funds along with a few shares for the fun of investing directly.

The funds tend to grow slowly and boringly, but do provide that balance to wild swings in individual shares.

Lloyds is one of the more stable shares but even this can't ride out world events. So yes the dividend was not paid but in the mean time my russian tracker has jumped 10% and EVR is up 8% in the last few days.

Its tricky and everyone has to make their own judgements for their circumstances, but I do think bonds are the way to go as I get older
When closing on retirement, move into fixed income investments, annuities or 100% cash to provide a baseline income.

Anything else would be a roll of the dice.

65p by September

2023

Well I'm still hold on this share.
Not sure there will be massive rises like last week anytime soon but happy to wait and see.

Last week it appears was pure speculation but the publishing of the results might be taken as Lloyds taking the prudent approach and basically kitchen sinking any bad news from this virus.

Apart from Lloyds I'm hoping in and out of other shares when I can take a small profit to try and recover some ground that I lost in the first few weeks of this virus.

EVR is my latest purchase today, total speculation at the moment but you can only hold so many funds.

June is too long term to predict.

End of May I'll go for 33p

How short is your short term?

End of the day? As an optimistic soul I'll go for 31.01p

Agreed there is no way to know when this will be over.

The bigger unknown for lloyds is what investors have priced into the current sp as that will be different for each individual.

Some may have priced in no dividend for 1, 2, 3 years.

Others a fall in profits or even losses.

If a 50% reduction in the sp for most holders was based on a short term bump and a 20% fall in profits then there will be alot of sellers who will cut losses further when reality hits

If most have priced in losses and no dividend for say 3 years and then find out its not that bad then there will be more people out there willing to pay more than 30p.

Until then its all speculation

I doubt the press are that savey.

Some people like darth are good at trading, me I can't trade for toffee.

If I could I would have sold on Wednesday, but even if I had I would buy back in too early.

I can never call bottom or top. My only option is to buy when I feel comfortable (currently 29p as I feel the down side is limited at that level)

Then aim for 40 p at some point this year and if that is achieved potentially hold for a few more years.

If it sticks at this level as other shares recover then I would question my investment, but I can't do day to day.

If it went below 25p I'd have to review, to see whether losses need to be cut.

But I am happy that over a 3-4 year horizon I will make more than putting it in a bank account.

I have other shares and funds too so its not all about lloyds

Income only dropped 11%.

The 95% drop was in profits, which was not an actual drop but a rerating of asset prices.

Basically a paper exercise to guess what losses may turn out to be.

The sp took a hit but is still well up on the week.

All gains from what starting point?

If you bought yesterday then sure your gains might be wiped out, but if you bought earlier you will still be doing fairly well.

Seems like this morning was a bit of a shaking of the tree.

Drop is reducing

I don't think the results were that bad and I'd rather the bank are over cautious, than over promise and under deliver.

Personally I'm fairly comfortable with the outcome. Clearly if I was any good at trading I would have sold on the close last night. But I have learned that I am not a day trader, I have no great insight.

Lloyds is net 8% up this week for me so quite happy that the results are about in line with the sp at the start of this week.

Seems like the market was pretty close to calling the sp on lloyds right.

So the question for me: is the 50% drop in the sp worse or better than expected for an 11% dro in income.

That's what the market will tell us in 10 minutes

Seems like the BOE is also aware that the banks are "kitchen sinking" profits.

The impairment charge is a one off unknown. Its based on expected losses rather than actual losses on the value of assets.

How do you calculate an unknown? It seems they have basically looked at their profit and set it all aside just in case. They have no idea if it will all be needed. To me it appears that like the dividend they have basically cancelled any profit for this year. It feels more like an accounting measure than a real world impact.

The net income is more interesting to me as that suggests an 11% reduction if I read it right.

May explain that RNS at the end of the day.