Member Info for Marcus_

Thanks for that link. Looks like he was doing too much tea leaf reading.

The original assessment of 27% was much closer.

I don't think a judgement on the director applies the whole office.
I know that people hear find the wheels of justice move to slowly, but that is due to the complexity of the law in this case.
It's not like there are photo's of people handing over wads of cash.

Unless the case is water tight it is very difficult to prove wrong doing beyond reasonable doubt. Hence the 2 - 1 convictions in this case.

If it was on the balance of probabilities then probably a lot more companies would be convicted but proving that someone was doing something wrong and that they knew it was wrong and where not acting out of ignorance is a high bar to reach.

Even if you disbanded the SFO something else would have to replace it and will the public be willing to pay top dollar for a SFO that has the best lawyers and investigators? I doubt it, they will want it run as cheap as possible and therefore it will take a long time to bring anything to court.

If I could change anything then I would change the ability of the SFO to announce investigations into companies. If they are going to charge an organisation or a person as they have reasonable suspicions then fair enough, but announcing investigations seems to high a price to pay when the investigation can last for half a decade without any outward sign of progress.

I'd love to know who these idiot economists where that hoped for a V-shaped recovery.

Where is the analysis and insight? If economists have resorted to hoping then we may as well return back to the days of speaking to the wise old man or woman of the village for a prediction on economic growth.

To be honest I was surprised that the economy only shrunk by 25%. To me its a good news story as I was thinking that it would be more like a 40-50% hit.

So the fact that in May when most of lockdown was still in place we only recovered 1% again is not a huge surprise.

Even at 25% the hit to Lloyds still feels over played, I'm not expecting 45p by Christmas but 40p by this time next year, does not feel (hope) to be too extravagant.

Strange outcome, clearly there is evidence some people knew whereas others didn't.

So it is possible that PFC will be using the we had no knowledge defence

I have to agree I've bought too many recovery plays in blue chips only to find out there was no recovery.
There is always going to be an argument that utilities should be state owned as there is a monopoly position and so I don't see the ofgem proposal as a bluff it is a clear intention of how they are likely to develop during the coming years.

I have no idea what SP would be fair value at this stage so may need to sit on the sidelines a bit longer.

think it is just moving with the general market sentiment. It took a more intense hit in the last week or so, therefore has more room for recovery.

But not expecting any huge changes now until the court case finishes at which point it could be great or terrible (place your bets)

Well the gambler in me is betting on the Unaoil case closing and then a lovely little jump in the SP.
No evidence to justify this but sometimes you have to be in it to win it.

Made a bit of an impulse buy today on these.

Took a hair cut loss in Feb from 500p down to 380p, but turned out to be the best choice I could have made.
SFO has been around this company for ages so comfortable with that.

I see no reason why as part of buying a ticket they make it part of the terms and conditions that passengers must submit to a COVID test.

It is not beyond the whit of the company to set this up surely? Anyone carrying is not let aboard.

Yes I know each time they make port there is a risk of infection and the test may mis-read, but if you can do something at the primary entry point that will provide some confidence to customers.

Currently it takes 24 hrs to get a test result on the NHS, but I'm sure Private businesses could turn this around quicker if needed, or enable an overnight test prior to travel.

Well I topped up at 20.30p yesterday, not looking for a big rise. Would probably cash my capital out again at 22p.
I've been growing a holding in SAGA and currently have 20% of my shares effectively for free by withdrawing the capital when the SP rises but keeping in the profits.

Another 10% added to the pot would mean a very positive outcome should the SP start to move dramatically and also provides the comfort that longer term the worst case scenario is I only stand to lose the profits.

EmmJane: Which chart are you using and what timeframe?

Looking at a chart for the year:
The 20 - 50 SMA & EMA actually look pretty flat between 117 and 120.
The 200 day average is continuing to fall.

If you reduce the timeframe even down to a month it all looks pretty flat.

Only if I reduce the chart timeframe down to the last 7 days do you get any impression of an increase. But still bounces around the 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Tie in the wider market ups and downs and I still can't see a chart predicting 130p?

Well I was waiting for the 28p gap but the market seems surprisingly resistant to falling again.

Will have to reconsider my buy in price as this seems to have found a new trading range.

Well BT is my first purchase for a few weeks. I bought way to early prior to the cancelled dividend announcement and so was stuck at a price in the 120's.

However, I see less downside on the current BT share price compared to other stocks I have held. Not declaring bottom as this has proven it can hit the £1 level. But it did not hit those lows due to COVID-19 but based on the dividend announcement.

Oasis2000: As with any share its a bit of a lottery at the moment, but I think you will find even the posters who are labelled as negative still have a longer term positive outlook on Lloyds.

The key thing is what is your timeframe for investment. If you are looking to trade (buy and sell) on a regular basis then cash out I think your SP is a little on the high side.

If you are a long term holder then again depending on your timeframe you can see the Lloyds SP passing back above 40 - 60 within say 4 years. But it is a bottom draw share, just leave it and forget about it. As in the intervening time there will be peaks and troughs.

Lloyds is an income share so don't expect huge changes in your capital but in the coming years it should pay a healthy dividend and at these prices that will look very attractive.

Negatives for me:
Lloyds is not a market favourite even though it is a private investor favourite so it tends to grow less than the wider market and gets hit when the market takes a hit.
Brexit will not help the Lloyds SP so that will be a drag on the sp for a few years
Unemployment will mean more bad debts and lower profits

Positives:
Lloyds is a fairly safe bet, you may get better growth elsewhere but that carries a risk of those companies going under. Lloyds will not go under as the government will not allow it.
The new debt that banks are taking on are underwritten by the UK government so again very low risk
Assuming no further global disasters you could be looking at a 40% increase on your capital and better still close to 10% income per year from dividends once the next 4 years pass.

Personally, I'm waiting for lower lows as I think that the market has bet on a quick recovery, whereas I think the recovery has been too quick and the long term impacts will start to be reflected. My target price is 28p then looking to sell around 33-34p as I think it will yo-yo a bit more this year.

Newbie2020: that is the dilemma we all face, risk to capital v opportunity cost.

Long term 5 years this company feels like a solid bet, but you would have to be a very discipline investor to hold that long as in-between you may see huge swings up and down.

I've found that the only way I can stop myself from trying to time the market is by trading the capital but leaving the profits.
The profits feel more like free cash that I am willing to lose out on over the medium term volatility.

Genuinely surprised by the bounce today, but still too much risk v upside for me at the moment.

I'll wait for the weekend to pass then reassess

Hold your breath for today's upside, or alternatively hold your cash.

The number of people on these boards who keep recommending that people fill their boots with their share of choice. I would caution the opposite, never fill ya boots. Indeed it is wise when filling one boot to empty another or at least put something different in it.

My capital is limited so I have to balance that once invested I can't just magic up another amount to cover any losses.

If I had the skill and money I would hedge by going short and long on a stock at the same time. That way you can benefit from short term blips and longer term trends.

However, as the charges for shorting are likely to outweigh any hedge I could benefit from, then I prefer to invest at the moment for short burst of time. Then withdraw the capital to leave the profit to ride, if the share goes up massively then you get some rise but not a huge payday. If it falls then at least you initial investment is secure.

I think for the future lows, the recent lows are a good guide.

I've been waiting for a retrace in the market and whilst I expected a drop I doubt we will hit new lows.

But its always a gamble

It is a tricky market to call at the moment. Personally I'm out, made some good money in the last 2 months and I'm hedging towards a retrace.
I'd never short a stock but I'll give it a few weeks as companies start to adjust to paying or laying off their staff as furlough gets withdrawn