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EmmJane: Which chart are you using and what timeframe?
Looking at a chart for the year:
The 20 - 50 SMA & EMA actually look pretty flat between 117 and 120.
The 200 day average is continuing to fall.
If you reduce the timeframe even down to a month it all looks pretty flat.
Only if I reduce the chart timeframe down to the last 7 days do you get any impression of an increase. But still bounces around the 20 and 50 day moving averages.
Tie in the wider market ups and downs and I still can't see a chart predicting 130p?
Well BT is my first purchase for a few weeks. I bought way to early prior to the cancelled dividend announcement and so was stuck at a price in the 120's.
However, I see less downside on the current BT share price compared to other stocks I have held. Not declaring bottom as this has proven it can hit the £1 level. But it did not hit those lows due to COVID-19 but based on the dividend announcement.
Oasis2000: As with any share its a bit of a lottery at the moment, but I think you will find even the posters who are labelled as negative still have a longer term positive outlook on Lloyds.
The key thing is what is your timeframe for investment. If you are looking to trade (buy and sell) on a regular basis then cash out I think your SP is a little on the high side.
If you are a long term holder then again depending on your timeframe you can see the Lloyds SP passing back above 40 - 60 within say 4 years. But it is a bottom draw share, just leave it and forget about it. As in the intervening time there will be peaks and troughs.
Lloyds is an income share so don't expect huge changes in your capital but in the coming years it should pay a healthy dividend and at these prices that will look very attractive.
Negatives for me:
Lloyds is not a market favourite even though it is a private investor favourite so it tends to grow less than the wider market and gets hit when the market takes a hit.
Brexit will not help the Lloyds SP so that will be a drag on the sp for a few years
Unemployment will mean more bad debts and lower profits
Positives:
Lloyds is a fairly safe bet, you may get better growth elsewhere but that carries a risk of those companies going under. Lloyds will not go under as the government will not allow it.
The new debt that banks are taking on are underwritten by the UK government so again very low risk
Assuming no further global disasters you could be looking at a 40% increase on your capital and better still close to 10% income per year from dividends once the next 4 years pass.
Personally, I'm waiting for lower lows as I think that the market has bet on a quick recovery, whereas I think the recovery has been too quick and the long term impacts will start to be reflected. My target price is 28p then looking to sell around 33-34p as I think it will yo-yo a bit more this year.
Newbie2020: that is the dilemma we all face, risk to capital v opportunity cost.
Long term 5 years this company feels like a solid bet, but you would have to be a very discipline investor to hold that long as in-between you may see huge swings up and down.
I've found that the only way I can stop myself from trying to time the market is by trading the capital but leaving the profits.
The profits feel more like free cash that I am willing to lose out on over the medium term volatility.
The number of people on these boards who keep recommending that people fill their boots with their share of choice. I would caution the opposite, never fill ya boots. Indeed it is wise when filling one boot to empty another or at least put something different in it.
My capital is limited so I have to balance that once invested I can't just magic up another amount to cover any losses.
If I had the skill and money I would hedge by going short and long on a stock at the same time. That way you can benefit from short term blips and longer term trends.
However, as the charges for shorting are likely to outweigh any hedge I could benefit from, then I prefer to invest at the moment for short burst of time. Then withdraw the capital to leave the profit to ride, if the share goes up massively then you get some rise but not a huge payday. If it falls then at least you initial investment is secure.
It is a tricky market to call at the moment. Personally I'm out, made some good money in the last 2 months and I'm hedging towards a retrace.
I'd never short a stock but I'll give it a few weeks as companies start to adjust to paying or laying off their staff as furlough gets withdrawn
Genuinely surprised at the v shaped recovery of the markets at the moment. Its almost like nothing happened in the last 3 months.
Clearly I bailed out too early, but can't fathom the markets optimistic view given the unemployment rates.
Is it under valued? I'm certainly interested at these levels but not sure if the oil dump from Saudi is finished yet.
I have averaged down before but it was a desperation play. Toffs assertion is correct if you have capital do you really want to load up on more of the same share?
Eggs in one basket etc.
I have a strange draw to lloyds considering how poorly it has performed, but I think that is the gambler rather than the investor in me. If I keeping betting on the same thing it must come up tumps soon (surely???).
I have a limited amount of capital and whilst I can still see a long-term value in lloyds the strength of the market to recover so much in such a short time span just worries me.
Who will take the loans, the mortgages when people are out of work?
Given 4 years sure there is a case to be made, but could you do better waiting and what will hold stronger in the short term than banks?
I am leaning more and more to toffs view on this. I've held lloyds on and off for years and barring the odd freak move it has never really been a good buy.
I am tempted at 28/29p and will probably buy some at those levels.
However, I have become bearish on the market in general today. I've had a look across the broad markets and was a little shocked to see the dow is only 7% below its historic highs.
This worries me as whilst not a financial wizard that seems rediculous for a once in a life time event that had people predicting a great depression less than a month ago.
I'm not out of all stocks, but have moved back into 3/4's cash.
The last month has been great for cutting my losses, but time to reflect as the next quarter gdp figures may remind some that the world economy is not a never ending gravy train.